{"id":170259,"date":"2025-09-15T10:12:14","date_gmt":"2025-09-15T00:12:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.climatecouncil.org.au\/?post_type=resource&p=170259"},"modified":"2025-09-16T09:31:23","modified_gmt":"2025-09-15T23:31:23","slug":"briefing-paper-national-climate-risk-assessment-ncra","status":"publish","type":"resource","link":"https:\/\/www.climatecouncil.org.au\/resources\/briefing-paper-national-climate-risk-assessment-ncra\/","title":{"rendered":"Compounding climate risk: New government report warns that Australia could face severe impacts"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The choices we make today – on how rapidly we cut climate pollution over coming years – will determine exactly how dangerous our future becomes. The Australian Government’s national risk assessment <\/a>outlines the worst risks that Australia faces, from extreme heat, to flooding and drought, into the future. The only solution is to rapidly slash climate pollution from coal, oil and gas, and replace energy sources with clean alternatives.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The report comes as the Australian Government sets a 2035 climate target. In doing so it is making a choice on how much harm to Australia it is willing to accept, as Australians experience increasingly catastrophic impacts on our way of life.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Sign the petition for strong targets<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

This briefing paper explains the National Climate Risk Assessment<\/a> (NCRA) in context, and summarises its key findings. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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This summary was prepared based on the NCRA Overview. Climate Council researchers will analyse the NCRA\u2019s detailed technical reports over coming days.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

How bad will climate change get for Australians?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Australia is already experiencing more intense heatwaves on land and sea, rising seas and more frequent and severe flooding. What happens next depends on what we collectively do now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Existing global efforts – including Australia\u2019s – are insufficient to limit global heating to safer thresholds. Based on current policies to cut climate pollution, the world is estimated to heat up by 2.7\u00baC by 2100.<\/a> This means the NCRA\u2019s 3\u00baC scenario is most likely to occur based on the choices we\u2019re making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The NCRA has assessed climate risks and impacts in Australia at three levels of global heating: 1.5\u00baC, 2\u00baC, and 3\u00baC above pre-industrial levels. At these levels, it identifies severe risks with catastrophic impacts for Australians if we don\u2019t do more to cut climate pollution. It notes that:<\/p>\n\n\n\n