{"id":167365,"date":"2024-06-24T16:29:58","date_gmt":"2024-06-24T06:29:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.climatecouncil.org.au\/?post_type=resource&#038;p=167365"},"modified":"2025-07-23T06:23:12","modified_gmt":"2025-07-22T20:23:12","slug":"have-we-already-gone-past-1-5-degrees-warming","status":"publish","type":"resource","link":"https:\/\/www.climatecouncil.org.au\/resources\/have-we-already-gone-past-1-5-degrees-warming\/","title":{"rendered":"Have we already gone past 1.5 degrees of warming?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center has-mandarin-background-color has-background has-small-font-size wp-elements-0702da68c8f23dce431049f6461c3200\" style=\"padding-top:2px;padding-bottom:2px\">Updated information available in: <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.climatecouncil.org.au\/resources\/why-australias-2035-climate-target-matters\/\">Stronger Target, Safer Future: Why Australia\u2019s 2035 Climate Target Matters<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.csiro.au\/en\/news\/all\/news\/2024\/january\/expert-commentary-2023-warmest-year-on-record\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">2023 was the hottest year ever recorded.<\/a> In the months of July and August, temperatures reached 1.6\u00b0C above pre-industrial levels of warming. This news creates a lot of confusion about whether or not this means we\u2019ve collectively failed to honour the international treaty on climate signed by almost 200 countries in 2015 known as the Paris Agreement.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Let\u2019s break down what it all means and set the record straight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading has-magenta-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-6543ff72475fe20661f53583ffc57e32\"><strong>Why is 1.5\u00b0C of global warming so dangerous?<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>There is no safe level of global warming.&nbsp;<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>By digging up and burning coal, oil and gas we have profoundly altered the Earth\u2019s carbon cycle by drawing huge quantities of carbon out of long-term underground storage and pumping it into our atmosphere. This has tipped our Earth System out of balance and blanketed the planet in pollution that traps heat inside our atmosphere.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Our global temperature is now rising faster than anything we have seen over the Earth\u2019s entire history.<\/strong> Around the planet, we are dealing with more dangerous, unpredictable and more frequent extreme weather events like bushfires, flooding rains, heatwaves and droughts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed aligncenter is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Everything we do now, matters\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/wsoXsxfD2Rk?feature=oembed&#038;enablejsapi=1&#038;origin=https:\/\/www.climatecouncil.org.au\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Climate scientists have long warned that, to avoid the worst impacts of climate change, we need to drastically cut climate pollution and limit global warming as close as possible to 1.5\u00b0C above pre-industrial levels. Every fraction of global warming beyond this level exponentially increases climate harm, as well as the risk of crossing tipping points in the climate system \u2013 which would trigger abrupt and irreversible changes and accelerate warming. In other words, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.climatecouncil.org.au\/resources\/what-happens-when-tipping-points-tip\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">tipping points<\/a> are points of no return.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-layout-flex wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button has-custom-width wp-block-button__width-100\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/www.climatecouncil.org.au\/resources\/how-to-clean-up-polluting-information\/\">how to respond to common climate myths<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading has-magenta-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-6c65744cdcf6764166d48f21fcbe273f\"><strong>How is the Paris Agreement linked to 1.5\u00b0C of global warming?<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>In 2015, <a href=\"https:\/\/unfccc.int\/process-and-meetings\/the-paris-agreement\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">196 countries came together and signed an agreement to substantially reduce climate pollution<\/a> to hold the increase in long-term global average temperature to well below 2\u00b0C and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5\u00b0C. It was signed in Paris; hence the name \u2018The Paris Agreement\u2019.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>It might sound like a small number, but every fraction of a degree of global warming carries huge, real-world consequences for us all.&nbsp;<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-layout-flex wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button has-custom-width wp-block-button__width-100\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/www.climatecouncil.org.au\/resources\/infographic-our-future-our-choice\/\">Explore the consequences for australians of 1.5\u00b0C vs. 2\u00b0C degrees of global warming<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading has-magenta-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-14b5a773ef17e79ccda2affeb6029ea4\"><strong>How do we know if we\u2019ve exceeded the Paris Agreement 1.5\u00b0C target?<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>average temperature over a period of at least 20 to 30 years. For the pre-industrial period, the average temperature between 1850-1900 is commonly used, as it&#8217;s the earliest period when near-global reliable measurements were available. The global average temperature for the most recent 10-year period, from 2014 to 2023, is estimated to be the warmest 10-year period on record, <a href=\"https:\/\/wmo.int\/publication-series\/state-of-global-climate-2023\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">at around 1.2\u00b0C above the 1850-1900 average<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"831\" height=\"1024\" src=\"https:\/\/www.climatecouncil.org.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Screenshot-2024-06-24-at-3.36.05\u202fpm-2-831x1024.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-167367\" style=\"width:490px;height:603px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.climatecouncil.org.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Screenshot-2024-06-24-at-3.36.05\u202fpm-2-831x1024.png 831w, https:\/\/www.climatecouncil.org.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Screenshot-2024-06-24-at-3.36.05\u202fpm-2-244x300.png 244w, https:\/\/www.climatecouncil.org.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Screenshot-2024-06-24-at-3.36.05\u202fpm-2-768x946.png 768w, https:\/\/www.climatecouncil.org.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Screenshot-2024-06-24-at-3.36.05\u202fpm-2-731x900.png 731w, https:\/\/www.climatecouncil.org.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Screenshot-2024-06-24-at-3.36.05\u202fpm-2.png 976w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 831px) 100vw, 831px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><strong>Image Source: <\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.esa.int\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">European Space Agency<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Similarly, the 1.5\u00b0C threshold also needs to be assessed on decadal timescales. This means that if the world breaches 1.5\u00b0C on an individual day, month or year, it does not mean the 1.5\u00b0C threshold has been breached because it must be assessed over a longer period of time. These breaches, however, are warning signs that we are getting very close to breaching the long-term limit.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The Paris Agreement itself does not specify how many years should make up the long-term trend for measuring temperature changes.<\/strong> This means different experts may come to different conclusions about when this threshold is crossed in the future. Adding to this complexity, the Paris Agreement aims to limit temperatures as close as possible to 1.5\u00b0C above pre-industrial levels <em>by the end of the century.<\/em> This means that temperatures might exceed 1.5\u00b0C for a time (referred to as \u201covershoot\u201d) and then come back to 1.5\u00b0C by the end of the century (for example, by removing greenhouse gases from the atmosphere).&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Despite the complications of assessing and measuring the 1.5\u00b0C threshold, we know that it has not yet been crossed.<\/strong> Scientists have found that the world has warmed by 1.2\u00b0C based on averaging temperatures over the most recent 10 year period. This means that, although a lot of work needs to be done to maintain a safe and healthy climate, we have not yet gone past 1.5\u00b0C of warming.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading has-magenta-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-988cd7c436186dc614207d86bb30a09e\"><strong>At what temperature do the impacts start?<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>We are already experiencing climate harms through worsening and more frequent extreme weather events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed aligncenter is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-4-3 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"How does climate change influence extreme weather? \\ Climate Council\" width=\"500\" height=\"375\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/q6--ReYTqCQ?feature=oembed&#038;enablejsapi=1&#038;origin=https:\/\/www.climatecouncil.org.au\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Globally, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.climatecouncil.org.au\/2024s-climate-crisis-extreme-weather-around-the-globe\/\">millions are already experiencing the impacts of climate change<\/a> in the form of extreme temperatures, heavy rains, flooding and more. Closer to home, Australians are experiencing \u2018<a href=\"https:\/\/www.climatecouncil.org.au\/resources\/climate-whiplash-wild-swings-between-weather-extremes\/\">climate whiplash<\/a>\u2019 from being hurled from flooding rains to heatwaves to fierce fires, and back again. The only solution that addresses the root cause of this is to reduce climate pollution as quickly as possible, with the lion\u2019s share of action taking place this decade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>In other words, the impacts are already well underway, but limiting warming to 1.5\u00b0C with limited or no \u201covershoot\u201d would prevent some of the most deadly impacts of climate change.&nbsp;<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading has-magenta-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-55590a6f2467f7edfc715cee5f9238bc\"><strong>Are we too late?<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>It\u2019s \u2018game on\u2019 for slashing climate pollution, not game over.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Everything we do now matters. After years of climate denial and delay, Australia is finally on the right path by scaling up clean energy and industries so we can phase out polluting coal, oil and gas. Governments at all levels have the opportunity to build on this progress and momentum to seize this decade and ensure millions more Australians enjoy the benefits of a cleaner, safer future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The further and faster we can cut climate pollution in the 2020s, the better the prospects for all of us. <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-layout-flex wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/www.climatecouncil.org.au\/resources\/seize-the-decade\/\">Read the climate council\u2019s plan for how we can cut climate pollution by 75% by 2030 here<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.climatecouncil.org.au\/resources\/how-to-clean-up-polluting-information\/\">Find out how to respond to common climate myths here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Updated information available in: Stronger Target, Safer Future: Why Australia\u2019s 2035 Climate Target Matters 2023 was the hottest year ever recorded. In the months of July and August, temperatures reached 1.6\u00b0C above pre-industrial levels of warming. This news creates a lot of confusion about whether or not this means we\u2019ve collectively failed to honour the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":167374,"menu_order":0,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false},"categories":[68,36,44,541,31],"tags":[],"resource-type":[21],"coauthors":[69],"class_list":["post-167365","resource","type-resource","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-climate-change","category-climate-politics","category-climate-science","category-criticaldecade","category-internation","resource-type-explainers"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Have we already gone past 1.5 degrees of warming? | Climate Council<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Scientists have found that the world has warmed by 1.2\u00b0C based on averaging temperatures over the most recent 10 year period. This means that, although a lot of work needs to be done to maintain a safe and healthy climate, we have not yet gone past 1.5\u00b0C of warming.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.climatecouncil.org.au\/resources\/have-we-already-gone-past-1-5-degrees-warming\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Have we already gone past 1.5 degrees of warming? | Climate Council\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Scientists have found that the world has warmed by 1.2\u00b0C based on averaging temperatures over the most recent 10 year period. 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This means that, although a lot of work needs to be done to maintain a safe and healthy climate, we have not yet gone past 1.5\u00b0C of warming.","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.climatecouncil.org.au\/resources\/have-we-already-gone-past-1-5-degrees-warming\/","og_locale":"en_GB","og_type":"article","og_title":"Have we already gone past 1.5 degrees of warming? | Climate Council","og_description":"Scientists have found that the world has warmed by 1.2\u00b0C based on averaging temperatures over the most recent 10 year period. 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