Read the original article. Written by Senior Researcher Wesley Morgan

The current visit to Australia by China’s Premier Li Qiang may have taken the heat out of recent tensions between the two nations. But Australia remains embroiled with China in a tussle for influence in the Pacific – a fight in which climate ambition is key.

That’s why, at a diplomatic level, we should be concerned about Opposition leader Peter Dutton’s suggestion the Coalition would abandon Australia’s 2030 emissions target should it win the next election. Such a move would be damaging on many levels. Not least, it would undermine Australia’s relations with our Pacific neighbours – nations that regard climate action as vital to their survival, and for whom Australia aims to be the security partner of choice.

Winding back Australia’s 2030 target – a 43% reduction in emissions, based on 2005 levels – would go against the spirit of the 2015 Paris Agreement. The deal requires countries to communicate national targets to cut emissions, and to set stronger targets every five years. No other country has wound back their climate targets.

Even if the Coalition wins office, Dutton is unlikely to have the Senate numbers to scrap the 2030 target. But the potential implications of such a move for our standing in the Pacific are well worth considering

How is China travelling on the Paris Agreement?

When it comes to climate action, China is a paradox. It is the world’s biggest consumer of coal and the largest carbon emitter. But it is also leading the world’s shift to clean energy.

Renewables in China are booming – especially solar. China installed more solar capacity in 2023 than the whole world did in 2022, and is expected to install even more this year. China is also a world leader in electric vehicles. Battery and hybrid cars make up almost 40% of all new cars sold there.

Under its current Paris Agreement target, China plans to reach more than 1,200 gigawatts of installed wind and solar power by 2030. It’s on track to achieve the target next year – five years ahead of schedule.

China also pledged to reach peak emissions before 2030 and there are signs this target has already been met. Now, China has indicated it may strengthen its 2030 target, and at the same time will set a new 2035 target.

Such a move by China would help strengthen global cooperation on climate. All parties to the Paris Agreement are expected to set new, stronger, targets every five years and the next round of targets are due before the United Nations climate meeting, COP30, in Brazil next year.

China’s growing presence in the Pacific

At the same time as making good progress on its climate commitments, China has been expanding its presence in the Pacific. This has changed the dynamic of a region that has long been aligned with the West – notwithstanding concerns such as France’s role in New Caledonia and the impacts of nuclear testing in the Marshall Islands.

In recent years China has become a major provider of aid for Pacific island countries, especially for much-needed infrastructure projects.

China is also seeking new security arrangements in the Pacific. In April 2022, for example, it signed a security deal with Solomon Islands. The details were not made public. However, a leaked draft contains provisions allowing for Chinese military presence and ship resupply. China has also sought regional security arrangements with Pacific island countries.

Defence officials in Canberra are increasingly concerned about the prospect of China using infrastructure loans as leverage to secure a naval base in the Pacific, or even to station missiles in the region. This would critically undermine Australia’s long-held strategic interest in denying access to our maritime approaches for powers with interests different to our own.

For our Pacific neighbours, climate action is crucial

In light of all this, what would happen if Australia weakened its 2030 emissions targets? We would be isolated on the global stage and branded as a climate laggard. And island nations in our Pacific region would be paying close attention.

Pacific island countries have long been clear that climate change is their greatest security threat. As Fiji’s then-defence minister Inia Seruiratu told a regional security dialogue in 2022:

machine guns, fighter jets, grey ships and green battalions are not our primary security concern. Waves are crashing at our doorsteps, winds are battering our homes, we are being assaulted by this enemy from many angles.

In Australia, successive governments have expanded coal and gas exports and have been slow to cut emissions. For this reason, Canberra has struggled to convince our Pacific neighbours it is serious about regional security.

Since the current Labor government legislated a 2030 emissions target, there has been something of a rapprochement. However, Pacific leaders want a stronger target still, and remain concerned about the approval of new fossil fuel projects.

The Coalition’s foreign affairs spokesman, Simon Birmingham, knows climate ambition is important for our regional relations. During a tour of the Pacific in 2022, he said the Coalition should have heeded Pacific calls to set a stronger 2030 target while it was in office.

However Dutton, should he become prime minister, would have a tough time convincing Pacific leaders he is serious about their main security threat. Who could forget that low moment in 2015 when, as immigration minister, he was caught on a hot-mic making jokes about island nations disappearing beneath the waves?

Winding back Australia’s 2030 emissions target would undermine our standing in the Pacific, and damage Australia’s prospects of countering China’s influence.

Ultimately, Pacific island countries want both Australia and China to shift to renewables and move away from fossil fuels as fast as possible. Expectations are high that Australia will do its part. That’s only fair, if Australia wants to cement its place in the Pacific family.

The post Peter Dutton’s plan to cut the 2030 climate target would be an own goal for Australia’s Pacific ambitions appeared first on Climate Council.

Read the original article. Written by Climate Council Senior Researcher Wesley Morgan and University of Western Australia policy fellow James Bowen.

Last week, foreign minister Penny Wong laid out the strategic challenges facing Australia in a major speech.

Wong described great power competition involving China, America and Russia. She warned of the risk of conflict in our region as China expands its sphere of influence. And she defended the AUKUS nuclear submarine deal with the United States and United Kingdom.

But these are traditional challenges: nation against nation. Australia needs a similar declaration of the catastrophic security implications of climate change.

While Wong did mention climate change, it was secondary, set in the context of regional outreach.

As the climate crisis worsens, we must do more. Climate change is a threat. Maybe even the threat. We need to use every tool we have to tackle it – including our diplomats.

Climate change threatens our neighbours – and us

Australia is a big fish in a big, sparsely populated pond. Our neighbours in the Pacific see sea-level rise and ocean acidification as existential threats. For island nations, this is the big one – well above geostrategic competition.

To Wong’s credit, she understands this.

But climate damage isn’t restricted to island nations. Countries across South and Southeast Asia are also on the front line of warming, as this month’s record-breaking heatwaves show.

Just this weekend, people in Bangkok were warned not to go outside due to extreme heat. The apparent temperature – what the temperature feels like when combined with humidity – hit a record 54℃.

In our region, governments typically avoid close alignment with great powers and blocs. Yet there is no doubt rising temperatures are a key threat to all countries. Australia might have a tougher time remaining a credible partner to the region without a greater climate focus here too.

Back up words with serious action

Under Labor, our political and financial climate commitments have certainly increased.

Despite this, our domestic emissions trajectory is still not compatible with keeping global warming to 1.5℃ this century.

And, as of 2022, Australia was paying just a tenth of its fair contribution to the climate fund set up at the 2009 UN conference in Copenhagen.

Contrast this to the vast sum of money we have committed to spending on traditional security threats, especially the nuclear submarine deal which could cost up to A$368 billion.

Australians want to see more foreign policy ambition on climate front. A United States Studies Centre poll last year found 75% of us want climate action at the heart of our alliance with America. By contrast, only 52% of survey respondents felt the nuclear subs deal was a good idea.

What should Australia do?

It’s hard to imagine Australia – or any other country – financing climate action at a level on par with traditional security threats.

But there are actions we could take to help close the gap. We could rejoin and boost funding to the UN-aligned Green Climate Fund, which the previous Australian government left in 2018.

We should also retool our export credit and development finance to invest in climate-friendly assets and stop them funding more fossil fuel extraction.

At the same time, Australia could signal our serious climate commitments by continuing to strengthen domestic policies to ensure the reformed safeguard mechanism actually leads to genuine emission cuts. This would mean closing glaring loopholes, such as allowing major emitters to keep pumping out carbon pollution by purchasing carbon offsets.

As the global energy transition gathers pace, the federal government should do more to support clean energy exports. Australia is well placed to provide critical minerals and the green metals, fertiliser and transport fuels that the rest of the world needs. But we must act fast to secure lucrative opportunities –and to tell the world we are open for green business.

The way we communicate progress to the world is critical. For years, we have been seen as laggards and hold-outs, one of the few developed nations resisting the change which must come. It’s time for us to lead.

The post We want more climate ambition in our foreign policy – here’s how we can do it appeared first on Climate Council.