Since then, Australia has faced catastrophic floods, bushfires, droughts, and heatwaves—underscoring the urgent need for better climate risk data.

Soon, the Australian Government will release the National Climate Risk Assessment—the first comprehensive analysis of how climate change will affect Australian communities throughout this century.

In the meantime, here are three things we can expect from the report—and three priorities the Albanese Government must focus on.

1. Serious climate impacts are hurting Australians now and could get worse

In the first half of 2025, Australia faced a cascade of climate disasters: repeated flooding in Queensland and NSW, a tropical cyclone near northern NSW, record marine heatwaves devastating reefs in WA and Queensland, and severe drought in parts of Victoria, SA and Tasmania—leaving farmland parched and fire-prone. These events, driven by climate change, have already cost over $1.8 billion, excluding uninsured losses.

Australians are seeing these events grow more frequent and extreme, but the full picture remains hard to grasp. That’s why the National Climate Risk Assessment is crucial—it will, for the first time, provide a comprehensive overview of how climate change is impacting our lives, now and into the future. It will show that we must act now to cut climate pollution and make our communities more resilient to lessen the disaster impacts we face in the future. 

The initial findings already highlight alarming risks across 11 key systems, including Defence, Regional Communities, and Health. It warns that increasingly severe and overlapping disasters will have far-reaching effects:

• Emergency services and volunteers will be stretched beyond capacity.
• Rural communities will face more climate-driven crises, with rising physical and mental health impacts.
• Inadequate infrastructure could force community displacement over time.

2. Urgent cuts to climate pollution are needed – in Australia and across the globe –  to avoid the worst impacts of climate change

The National Climate Risk Assessment will outline how climate impacts escalate with rising global temperatures. The report will show how climate change is already impacting us at a 1.51°C of warming, and the consequences of reaching 2°C by 2050 and 3°C by century’s end—the path we’re currently on.

At 2°C, Australia will face more dangerous fire weather, longer fire seasons, intense rainfall, and more frequent, deadly heatwaves—putting more communities and livelihoods at risk. Forests in the southeast of Australia – an area heavily impacted by Black Summer – would see a 47% increase in extreme fire weather. Over 750,000 properties would be uninsurable due to climate risks by 2050, an increase of 170,000 from 1990.

At 3°C, the consequences are dire: twice as many catastrophic fire weather days and regular 50°C temperatures in cities like Sydney and Melbourne. A sea level rise of one-metre would put 160,000 to 250,000 properties at risk of coastal flooding. Almost 1 in 10 (8.8%) of households would be uninsurable due to the climate risks they experience. 

In short, without sufficient action to cut emissions, Australians will see dramatically escalating climate risks. Industries like fisheries, tourism and agriculture will experience catastrophic impacts and many communities who now face medium risks of extreme weather today will likely be unliveable.

3. The National Climate Risk Assessment will provide the information emergency responders, businesses, and communities need to prepare for future disasters

Nearly five years ago, the Royal Commission into National Natural Disaster Arrangements, prompted by the Black Summer bushfires, highlighted the lack of a single, comprehensive source of climate risk information. This gap made it harder for governments, emergency services, and communities to plan for escalating climate threats. Despite the recommendations, the Morrison government failed to act.

More recently, the Independent Review of the Australian Climate Service found widespread confusion among decision-makers about where to access reliable climate data. It also confirmed that improving Australians’ understanding of climate risks is critical to building our national resilience, especially in terms of skills and adaptation capacity.

The National Climate Risk Assessment aims to fill this gap—giving decision-makers and communities the information they need to understand how climate change will affect lives and livelihoods in the decades ahead. Importantly, the Federal Government will also release an interactive web tool allowing all Australians to explore climate impacts in their local areas by 2050 and 2090.

Three things Emergency Leaders for Climate Action want to see

1. Fossil fuels are driving climate disasters—and Australians deserve to know

The worsening climate disasters in Australia and around the world are being driven by one key factor: the continued burning of fossil fuels—coal, oil, and gas. Since 1910, Australia’s average temperature has risen by 1.51°C, and this hotter atmosphere is fuelling more frequent, intense, and destructive extreme weather events—posing increasing danger to lives, communities, and ecosystems.

Research has now directly linked emissions from major fossil fuel companies like Chevron, ExxonMobil, and BP to the climate impacts we’re experiencing. Combined, emissions from these three companies alone have reportedly caused $5.34 trillion in global economic losses due to climate-fuelled extreme heat.

As the social, environmental, and economic toll of climate disasters grows, Australians have a right to understand what’s driving their climate risk. Reports like the National Climate Risk Assessment must clearly show how continued reliance on coal, oil, and gas is accelerating global warming—and endangering us all.

2. An assessment of the communities that face the greatest climate risks and targeted climate adaptation plan with a framework to protect them

While climate change affects everyone, some communities are facing its impacts far more often and severely. Analysis by Emergency Leaders for Climate Action found that 15 local government areas—including parts of eastern Victoria, NSW’s mid-north coast, and northern and outback Queensland—have required federal disaster recovery assistance at least 25 times since 2006–07.

Alongside the National Climate Risk Assessment, the Federal Government will release a National Adaptation Plan to help prepare for worsening climate impacts. It’s a critical task—climate-fuelled disasters are already costing billions and hitting vulnerable communities hardest, with risks only set to increase. It will include actions the Federal Government will take across the 11 key systems identified in the National Climate Risk Assessment. 

To be effective, the Adaptation Plan must be fully funded and strategic—addressing the climate impacts communities will face now and see at 2°C by 2050 and 3°C by 2100. At the same time, it should include actions to boost household resilience to climate threats across the country. This could build on the work already being done in Queensland and New South Wales to make homes in high-risk areas more resilient to cyclones and floods respectively.

There will also be instances where the safest thing to do is move people out of harm’s way, relocating homes and communities where the climate risks are too great. The Adaptation plan should outline steps the Federal Government can take to support relocation as climate fuelled disasters become more frequent and severe in the coming years.

3. Action from Government to better protect communities from climate pollution

The Albanese Government will soon decide on Australia’s 2035 climate target. Our leaders will make this choice knowing full well the repercussions of failing to substantially cut climate pollution. 

The safest path is for all countries to set the strongest possible 2035 climate target – and for Australia that means net zero by 2035 or as close to it as possible. Every fraction of a degree of warming matters and will be measured in lives and livelihoods saved, fewer families forced from their homes and less strain on our already stretched emergency services. 

The National Climate Risk Assessment will make it clear: we must act urgently to cut climate pollution to better protect Australians from escalating climate risks. At the same time, we must also prepare our communities, businesses and emergency services for the climate-fuelled disasters we will experience in the coming years due to the historic burning of fossil fuels. Every dollar spent on adaptation and disaster risk reduction will save us between $2 and $11 in avoided recovery costs. 

Author: Greg Mullins AO AFSM, founder of Emergency Leader for Climate Action

The post 3 things to expect from the National Climate Risk Assessment and 3 things that won’t be in it (but should be) appeared first on Climate Council.

Find out more about the Emergency Leaders for Climate Action here.

Fifteen years on from Victoria’s worst bushfire disaster, the wounds still run deep. They run deep for friends and loved ones of the 173 people who died that day, for the more than 2,200 families made homeless and for the traumatised communities and firefighters who faced what, until then, was an unprecedented disaster. Together with our agencies, we learnt painful lessons about how fires need to be managed in this changed environment.

Back in 2009, we knew that climate change, caused by the burning of coal, oil and gas, was driving more intense extreme weather events. We had been warned of this since the mid-1990s. But during Australia’s political climate wars, as community leaders our concerns about this were given only cursory acknowledgement. 

The Canberra firestorm of January 2003 was a foretaste. We saw the first large-scale fire tornado and the fastest rate of spread of a bushfire ever recorded worldwide.

A sense of dread started to take shape for those of us serving in Victoria, which is acknowledged as one of the most fire prone places on earth. What if we were to get similarly off-the-scale weather conditions her

Sadly, on 7 February 2009, we found out. 

In the hot, dry lead-up to Black Saturday, fires were bigger and harder to fight. On Feb 7 we faced the worst fire conditions we could’ve imagined. Our crews were up against blistering temperatures, as well as storm-force winds that caused them to seek shelter wherever they could and stopped water-bombers from flying. Our traditional fire fighting systems and our communications simply could not keep up.

Once rare (but now common) fire-generated storms blasted communities like Kinglake with more energy than dozens of Hiroshima-sized atomic bombs. The fire danger index, with a theoretical maximum of 100, recorded figures greater than 200.

Things clearly needed to change. The resulting Royal Commission and other investigations created fundamental changes to national fire service doctrine. Leaders around the country embraced evacuations and emergency warnings, so that people would know when to get out and stay out, or when it was too late to leave.

More active landscape management including enhanced prevention through a broad area forest fuel management program was recommended. We all hoped these lessons had been learnt and things would be better with improved systems but as extreme weather events continue to become more frequent and more intense, we are playing a deadly game of catch-up.

Fast forward 10 years to Black Summer and some of those fundamental policy shifts probably saved hundreds of lives. Yet many died and more than 3,000 families were made homeless.

Nobody can say we weren’t warned. Decades ago, scientists explained how the relentless burning of fossil fuels was warming the planet. They told us it was making our weather more extreme, that it was worsening fire conditions, and that it was driving wild swings from hot and dry to storms and floods and back again.

But because of political ideology, the financial might of the fossil fuel industry, and determined campaigns of misinformation, the experts were sidelined. Governments sat on their hands for nearly a decade. The necessary moves to slash climate pollution by shifting towards cleaner and safer energy sources like solar and wind are finally taking hold, but still at an insufficient pace to protect families, communities and nature.

If Australia and the world at large leave polluting fossil fuels in the ground, we will substantially limit the severity of these disasters over the longer term. Australia, with its abundant solar and wind resources, has a major role to play. We have a shot at limiting fires like those of Black Saturday, sparing communities’ grief and giving the next generation hope – but we are running out of time.  

Today, many tears will flow across the nation. Together with many others who tried in vain to battle the brutal blazes that overtook our state, we will recall things that we wish we could forget, and those painful lessons learnt on that day.

We will also remember the loved ones lost, the firefighters who faced scorched landscapes, and the millions of animals killed.

We will be thinking about the future we want for our children and grandchildren – and hoping we don’t squander another second on climate inaction.

The post To avoid another Black Saturday, let’s focus the next 15 years on taking climate action appeared first on Climate Council.

2011 was the worst year of my life. I was living in the Northern Territory, working as Chief Fire Control Officer and that year, 67% of the Territory burnt. A death in my family cast a pall over my personal life, but the horrendous fire season turned work from ‘challenging but rewarding’ to ‘impossibly challenging and dangerous’. 

While much of the Northern Territory is desert or semi-desert, it periodically receives huge rainfall, and this encourages intense vegetation growth. Much of this is grass and scrub which grow rapidly, creating a blanket that stretches out to the horizon. As the weather clears, and temperatures climb back to the 40’s, the plants dry out and create a seamless cover of bushfire fuel. 

This pattern, supercharged by climate change, repeats every ten to twelve years with devastating impacts. 2011 was one of those years and I fear we are heading into another. As I write, the first of the fires have started to rage in the Northern Territory, and the peak council for Australian Fire and Emergency Services has indicated that as much as 80% of the region may burn this summer. Fire seasons are getting worse, and climate change is the culprit. 

Read our latest report on Australia’s bushfire preparedness here.

In 2011, fire preparation practices were manifestly inadequate, constrained by budget as well as weather. The window for fire management (the period when the weather is suitable for fuel reduction burning) had become narrower. 

Even back then, climate change meant that the small number of people dedicated to reducing fire risk had much less time to do it. To make matters worse, introduced grass species, gamba in the north and buffel in the south dramatically increased fuel density. Fires burned higher and hotter.

When the fires started, it was all hands to the pumps. Intense efforts were made to protect infrastructure and homes, but a huge amount of damage occurred. Fires wiped out habitat critical for saving the endangered desert rock rat and the mala from extinction. Time and again, people just managed to escape, their lives forever changed by other losses.

I vividly remember the afternoon we dispatched one of our most experienced bushfire managers to try to hold a fire that was encroaching on Alice Springs. A Warramunga man, he got off the plane from Darwin and went straight to the fire front. He quickly organised a massive back burn along bush tracks west of the town. This took immense confidence and courage. By about 9:30 that night I started to get phone calls from fearful residents who saw the towering walls of flame. What they saw was, in fact, the success of the backburn; it had joined up with the wildfire, leaving a trail devoid of fuel that saved their homes. 

Lives were undoubtedly saved by the decisions made by the likes of my colleague in 2011. But today, the only decision that can save us from a future marred by much worse fire seasons, is the decision to leave fossil fuels in the ground. 

Climate change continues to make fire management ever more difficult. Twelve years on and we know much more about the driving forces behind worsening extreme weather, but we’re not doing nearly enough about it. Just months ago, the Northern Territory Government announced that it would go ahead with a fracking project in the Beetaloo Basin, projected to emit the equivalent of more than three times Australia’s annual domestic emissions over the next two decades. We’re adding fuel to the fire by approving new fossil projects like this, heating up Australia and the world, priming the planet to burn.

Just like it was twelve years ago, the centre of Australia is covered with vegetation. Three La Niña years are likely to be followed by an El Niño. The weather is more extreme; already, the hottest days are hotter and there are more of them. We know to expect warm, windy weather just when the vegetation is at its driest. The fire conditions have become so bad that our official fire danger rating will be pushed into the category of ‘catastrophic’.

We have to drastically and urgently reduce our emissions if we want to give our country a fighting chance against fire seasons to come. If we don’t, I fear for communities in the Northern Territory and across Australia, who may well experience the worst year of their lives, just as I did in 2011.

The post 80% of the Northern Territory could burn this summer –  why are we still adding fuel to the fire? appeared first on Climate Council.

Following the 2022 flood disaster in NSW and QLD, ELCA launched a public statement, published a full page newspaper ad, and held a press conference to highlight the lack of national preparedness for extreme weather events, which are being supercharged by accelerated climate change. 

Check out some of the media coverage we’ve generated below.

Read the full public statement on the ELCA website

Emergency Leaders for Climate Action took out a full-page ad in the Courier Mail, 14 March, 2022

Shaping the national climate story during extreme weather events is one of the important ways we push for urgent action to reduce emissions, to better prepare our emergency services, and better protect our communities from climate-fuelled disasters. We are proudly independent, and community-funded. Can you chip in a donation today, to boost our efforts and keep climate change at the centre of the national conversation?

READ:

• The Guardian: Emergency Chiefs slam coalition’s fumbling response to floods
• ABC News: Morrison government blasted for ‘bungling’ eastern Australian flood disaster after refusing to heed warnings
• Canberra Times: Floods ‘Black Summer all over again’
• New Daily: Former emergency services chiefs slam govt after floods warning
• 7 News:  Floods ‘Black Summer all over again‘
• RenewEconomy: Emergency services chiefs call out Morrison’s failure on climate
• The Age/Sydney Morning Herald: NSW, Queensland floods royal commission being ignored: experts

WATCH:

Major General Peter Dunn on the Today Show, March 15 2022:

Greg Mullins on RN Drive, March 14, 2022:

Chas Keys on Sunrise, March 14 2022:

Calling out the Federal Government’s flood response, responding quickly in the media, holding press conferences, and publishing full page ads – these strategic actions are only possible with the support of our community. We are proudly independent, and community-funded. Can you chip in a donation today, to boost our efforts and keep climate change at the centre of the national conversation?

The post Rainbombs and mega floods: How ELCA is shaping the climate story during extreme weather events appeared first on Climate Council.

The Community Protection Pledge is a set of 10 commitments for keeping Australians safe from worsening extreme weather. These events are already harrowing every corner of our nation: bushfires are burning large swathes of territories with unprecedented intensity, droughts are withering rural Australia, floods such as those from March 2021 are inundating stretches of coastline, and longer, more intense heat waves are baking sprawling urban centres making them almost unliveable. There’s little reprieve so we must act today.

The Community Protection Pledge is composed of 10 commitments that can be signed by every one of Australia’s 151 Federal MPs as a signal to their constituents that they are committed to advocating and protecting those who have elected them. Signing the pledge is a two-way relationship. For the community, checking for your local MP’s signature is a simple way to hold our representatives to account: congratulate those who’ve signed or encourage those who haven’t.

What are the 10 commitments from the Community Protection Pledge?

Compiled by some of the nation’s most experienced fire and emergency service leaders, the Emergency Leaders for Climate Action, the Community Protection Pledge is composed of 10 commitments, distilled from the 165 recommendations in the Australian Bushfire and Climate Plan. These are focussed on helping communities prepare for extreme weather events, better responding to their onslaught, and—ultimately—to act as a preventative by addressing the root cause: climate change. A PDF of the commitments can be found here.

1. Addressing the root cause of the climate crisis and worsening extreme weather by accelerating Australia’s efforts to cut greenhouse gas emissions. Emissions need to plummet this decade, with net zero emissions achieved very soon thereafter.
2. Urgently implementing all 80 recommendations of the Royal Commission into National Natural Disaster Arrangements, including providing the necessary funding.
3. Increasing funding for research into climate change and extreme weather, including new and more detailed climate projections that better inform risk assessments and the impacts of such disasters on human health.
4. Investing in communities so they are better prepared when disasters strike and can recover more quickly; recognising that preparedness saves lives and many dollars in avoided disaster recovery costs.
5. Enhancing Australia’s capabilities for responding to extreme weather disasters in line with advice from State and Territory agencies. This includes better resourcing and coordination so that responses are swift, coordinated, and stop emergencies from escalating into disasters
6. Improving community engagement, education and support around extreme weather so that individuals are better informed, prepared and empowered to act. This includes investing in adequate warning systems and locally-led initiatives such as community resilience hubs.
7. Making rapid and comprehensive recovery from extreme weather events a priority for all levels of government. This requires fast, evidence-based and transparent access to disaster recovery payments for survivors, so help gets to people on the ground quickly.
8. Preparing Australian infrastructure, including homes and community facilities, for extreme weather events. This includes reforming Building Standards and appropriate rebates and subsidies for retrofitting to ensure solutions are affordable to all.
9. Involving health and family violence experts in disaster planning and response coordination and ensuring adequate access to health services including mental health and family violence services, and access to telehealth for all those affected by disasters.
10. Providing adequate funding to support the critical role of Local Governments in disaster preparedness and recovery, so that they have the resources to build resilient communities.

Learn more about the Community Protection Pledge and enter your postcode to see if your local MP has made the commitment.

The post Leading our leaders to change: Has your MP signed the Community Protection Pledge? appeared first on Climate Council.

The report recognises that we need to act on multiple fronts, including government measures on energy and the environment. The implication of this could not be any clearer: stronger action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is a fundamental part of addressing Australia’s escalating disaster risks.

The report outlines 80 recommendations that cover a broad spectrum of issues: from understanding climate risks and boosting firefighting capability, to wildlife protection and leadership of first nations.

The Federal Government must adopt every single one of the recommendations in this report and, importantly, act on the root cause of worsening bushfires in Australia by taking urgent steps to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Through our extensive evidence-based submission, expert witness testimony and an open letter signed by more than 9,000 Climate Council supporters, we urged the Commission to strengthen the call for climate action as one of the central pillars of its recommendations.

We also provided the Australian Bushfire and Climate Plan to the Commissioners – developed by Emergency Leaders for Climate Action in collaboration with hundreds of community leaders, scientists, firefighters, medics and other experts.

And it’s clear now that we, and the many other determined organisations and individuals across the country, have had a big impact. So big that our plan is cited as a reference in the findings, and the word ‘climate’ appears in the report a total of 90 times.

The Royal Commission has delivered a strong message to our Federal Politicians, and now we must ensure they act on the recommendations outlined in the report.

“The Federal Government absolutely has to act on the root cause of worsening bushfires in Australia, and take urgent steps to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This clearly means no new coal or gas, and a rapid transition to renewable energy,” Greg Mullins, Climate Councillor, founder of Emergency Leaders for Climate Action and former Commissioner, Fire and Rescue NSW.

What are the key recommendations?

Many of the key recommendations of the Royal Commission are targeted at helping communities prepare, adapt and build resilience to climate change.

Importantly, the report compels the Federal Government to tackle the root cause of escalating bushfire risk: climate change. This means no new fossil fuels (coal, oil or gas), and a rapid transition to renewable energy.

Key points from the report include:

• Climate change impacts: The Royal Commission acknowledges that climate change fuelled the Black Summer bushfires, and that more dangerous weather conditions for Australia are likely to occur throughout the country in the future due to a warming climate: “As the events of the 2019-2020 bushfire season show, what was unprecedented is now our future.”
• Climate change mitigation: It is impossible to read this report without recognising that stronger action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is a fundamental part of addressing our escalating disaster risks: “Warming beyond the next 20 to 30 years is largely dependent on the trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions.”
• Hazard reduction: The report takes a nuanced view of hazard reduction activities, acknowledging that while they can reduce risk, their value is diminished in extreme weather fuelled by climate change. It states unequivocally that hazard reduction is not a panacea: “We heard many perspectives from public submissions that describe prescribed burning as, in effect, a panacea – a solution to bushfire risk. It is not.”
• The rising costs of extreme weather and climate change: “Direct and indirect disaster costs in Australia are projected to increase from an average of $18.2 billion per year to $39 billion per year by 2050, even without accounting for climate change. The costs associated with natural disasters include significant, and often long-term, social impacts, including death and injury and impacts on employment, education, community networks, health and wellbeing.”
• Other recommendations: There are many other findings and recommendations, including upgrading our firefighting capabilities, better coordination between agencies, consistent public information and warnings, and prioritising mental health.
• Accountability: The Royal Commission recommends that “the Australian Government establishes accountability and assurance mechanisms to promote continuous improvement and best practice in natural disaster arrangements.” It is accountable to Australians for doing so and should accept and implement all of the relevant recommendations.

What’s next?

We will be watching closely and applying the necessary pressure to ensure the Federal Government implements all recommendations from the Royal Commission.

Emergency Leaders for Climate Action have just launched an accountability tracker; highlighting ten key recommendations from the report, to publicly track how long it takes for each of these recommendations to be implemented.

We’ll use the accountability tracker to make sure the Federal Government feels the heat: drawing media, political and public attention to exactly how long it takes for this Government to implement the Royal Commission recommendations.

And we’ll also be upping the pressure behind the scenes – briefing decision-makers, journalists, and the Australian people on what the Federal Government needs to do to reduce emissions and protect our communities.

Together, we must fight to make sure the Federal Government implements the recommendations from the Bushfire Royal Commission, and acts urgently to cut our emissions. Can you join our campaign to hold the Federal Government accountable by chipping in today?

The post Unpacking the Bushfire Royal Commission report appeared first on Climate Council.