Critical Decade News | Climate Council https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/category/criticaldecade/ Australians deserve independent information about climate change, from the experts. Wed, 10 Dec 2025 21:46:49 +0000 en-GB hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.8.3 https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/favicon-150x150.webp Critical Decade News | Climate Council https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/category/criticaldecade/ 32 32 An Aussie Roadmap: building a clean, reliable and low-cost electricity grid https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/understanding-whats-next-for-australias-main-electricity-market/ Tue, 09 Dec 2025 23:42:59 +0000 https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/?p=162687 The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) has released the 2026 Draft Integrated System Plan (ISP). Think of it as a roadmap for Australia’s electricity grid. AEMO’s job is to talk to thousands of experts and test many scenarios to develop a plan that cleans up our grid and keeps it reliable as Australia’s polluting, ageing […]

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The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) has released the 2026 Draft Integrated System Plan (ISP). Think of it as a roadmap for Australia’s electricity grid. AEMO’s job is to talk to thousands of experts and test many scenarios to develop a plan that cleans up our grid and keeps it reliable as Australia’s polluting, ageing and unreliable coal-powered generators close down. 

The draft 2026 roadmap confirms what plenty of energy experts know (and 4 million Aussie households with solar on the roof have experienced): renewable energy, powered by the sun and wind, is the lowest-cost way to deliver the clean and reliable energy Australia needs now. 

The latest ISP shows we are well on our way to a reliable renewables-powered grid, with more than 40 percent of the electricity in our main national grid already coming from clean wind, hydro and solar. Now, we need to build on this progress so even more Australians can enjoy the benefits.

Let’s take a look in a bit more detail.

First, what’s AEMO?  

AEMO is the organisation that makes sure our electricity and energy systems work smoothly to provide clean, reliable and affordable power for our homes, businesses and industry. Every two years, AEMO publishes an updated roadmap that governments, businesses, investors and others rely on for upgrading Australia’s electricity grid all the way out to 2050. This shows us the best way forward to keep power reliable as we keep cutting climate pollution from coal and gas and our energy needs keep growing. 
AEMO’s roadmap specifically looks at Australia’s main national electricity grid (referred to as the National Electricity Market, or NEM), which is one of the largest power systems in the world. It provides electricity to more than 23 million people – that’s almost 90% of Australia’s population.

What does the roadmap tell us? Here are our top six takeaways.

1. The switch to renewable energy is well underway, and picking up pace

Altogether, clean energy sources like hydro, rooftop solar, and solar and wind farms are already supplying 40 percent of the electricity in the national grid annually. In the right conditions, they provide even more – at one point on 11 October this year, 79% of our electricity came from renewables! 

Aussie households are generating a lot of this clean power, with millions of families simultaneously cutting their power bills and climate pollution by putting solar on the roof. In early 2025, rooftop solar was contributing nearly 15% of the electricity in our national grid – more than large-scale solar, wind or gas.  In South Australia, rooftop solar has met more than 100% of demand at certain times over the past year.

Households, businesses and investors alike are embracing renewable energy because it’s affordable, clean and can be rolled out fast. AEMO says accelerating the build out of clean wind and solar – backed by storage – is the lowest cost energy plan for Australia.

Australia is not alone in the shift to renewables: Investors around the world favour renewable energy and supporting technologies over fossil fuels. Globally in 2024, renewable generation received three times as much investment as coal did. In the first half of 2025 and for the first time, more of the world’s energy was delivered by renewables than by coal. 

2. Coal is making a quick exit, so we need to build new capacity ASAP 

Australia’s coal-fired electricity generators are retiring. Those that are left are ageing, unreliable and expensive to maintain and run around-the-clock. They are frequently taken offline to deal with breakdowns and maintenance outages, which puts pressure on the rest of our power grid. 

AEMO is preparing for two-thirds of Australia’s coal-fired generators to close by 2035 so we’re in a race against the clock to get replacement power online before this happens. The roadmap confirms that a combination of rooftop solar and community batteries, together with large-scale wind, solar and storage, is our best and most affordable option to keep powering Australia past the end of coal. 

As we phase out climate pollution in more places like transport and industry, the roadmap confirms we’ll also need more electricity in the future. Under the scenario that AEMO considers most likely, Australia’s electricity demand will double by 2050, as we use more electric vehicles, switch out gas in homes and businesses for electric alternatives, and as our green exports industries expand. 

While we’re making great progress, there is still a lot more to do – which is why AEMO says we need to step on the accelerator. 

Learn about how our ageing coal generators are ramping up blackout risks and power prices.

3. Clean energy backed by storage and firming is the lowest-cost way to power our homes and businesses

AEMO modelled thousands of different scenarios, and consulted with more than 1,400 organisations and experts to determine the lowest-cost way to supply reliable, affordable and clean electricity to Australians while cutting climate pollution. The result? Renewables, backed by storage. This is because solar and wind projects are quick to build, cheap to run, and most importantly, the sun and wind are freely available forever! This not only keeps electricity affordable, it protects Australians against international price shocks caused by volatility in the coal, oil and gas markets. 

Even with the supporting technologies needed for renewables – like transmission and storage – they are the lowest-cost option. In fact, building more transmission can deliver more than $20 billion in benefits for Australians.

4. More Aussies will directly benefit from rooftop solar

The roadmap shows that more and more of our electricity needs will be met by everyday Australians taking their power bills into their own hands with rooftop solar, as well as household or community batteries.

Already, 40% of households in Australia’s main grid have rooftop solar, and this is expected to grow to nearly 50% over the next decade. More and more Aussies will also pair their rooftop solar with household batteries as they become cheaper. AEMO expects the amount of electricity that everyday Australians make and use to increase from around ten percent today to more than  a third of Australia’s energy needs by 2050, even as electricity consumption doubles.

Read more about the benefits of rooftop solar in our report Seize the Sun: How to supercharge Australia’s rooftop solar

5. Batteries and pumped hydro will keep our grid reliable, with gas playing a limited role

Different types of renewable energy, like wind and solar, complement each other to provide power around the clock. Our energy system will also store energy up at times when it’s abundant through large- and small-scale batteries and pumped hydro, to make it available later on when we need it. In other words, just as it doesn’t rain all the time but we can access water whenever we want, AEMO’s roadmap confirms that a mix of solar, wind, hydro and storage can power our homes, industry and businesses 24/7.    

Gas is a polluting fossil fuel which can be just as bad for the climate as coal.  As we shift to renewables, expensive gas will only be used to generate electricity at the rare times that other sources aren’t available. Gas is often the most expensive source of energy in the market today, with high prices for this fossil fuel globally playing a big part in driving up household power bills over the past few years.

Find out more about how batteries are supporting our renewable grid in Battery Boom: Supercharging Australia’s Renewable Rollout

6. We need to do more to unlock the benefits of renewables for Australians

While momentum is building, challenges remain in delivering essential infrastructure at the pace required. To meet our climate and energy targets and maximise the benefits for Australians, we need to address the barriers to the renewable energy rollout, including:

  • Ensuring the supply chain for critical energy assets and workforces is secured.
  • Maintaining investment certainty with targets and policies that support energy infrastructure and investment. 
  • Ensuring our power system is ready for 100% renewables with technologies to ensure a smooth transition and deliver a secure and reliable energy system. 
  • Coordinating household solar and storage, so that power is available when it’s needed most, cutting costs for all Australians.
  • Building social licence through community engagement, benefit sharing and clear roles.
  • Streamlining and enhancing planning and environmental approval processes for infrastructure.

So, what’s the bottom line?

The experts at AEMO say renewable energy from the sun and wind, backed by storage, is the best way to power Australia in the coming decades. 

Not only is it our lowest-cost option, it’s also the most reliable and our best bet for getting replacement power online before more coal generators close down. The roadmap underscores that we’re well on the way to building the clean energy system we need. 

Australia should stick to the path we’re already on, and accelerate our progress, to deliver a reliable and affordable energy system that can cleanly power Australia for generations to come

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Ten years of the Paris Agreement: what have we achieved? https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/ten-years-of-the-paris-agreement-what-have-we-achieved/ Wed, 12 Nov 2025 01:43:22 +0000 https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/?p=170452 In 2015, the Paris Agreement made history. 195 countries came together at the world’s biggest summit on climate action (also known as COP21) and agreed to the world’s first binding international agreement to limit climate change and adapt to its impacts. Importantly, countries agreed to work together to hold ‘the increase in the global average […]

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In 2015, the Paris Agreement made history. 195 countries came together at the world’s biggest summit on climate action (also known as COP21) and agreed to the world’s first binding international agreement to limit climate change and adapt to its impacts.

Importantly, countries agreed to work together to hold ‘the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels’ and pursue efforts ‘to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C.’

Every national government must now establish a clear plan to reach net zero emissions with regularly updated targets to cut climate pollution.

As governments converge once more at the United Nations Climate Conference, this time, COP30 in Belém, Brazil, some are asking what have we achieved to combat climate change? 

The past three years have been the hottest on record, climate disasters have slammed every continent this year and climate pollution from coal, oil and gas continues to rise.  

10 years after Paris, it’s worth taking stock of where we are at, how much the world has achieved, and the task ahead.  

We’ve made substantial progress in the global shift to clean energy

Pollution from coal, oil and gas continues to rise, but much more slowly

In 2023, the international community agreed to switch away from fossil fuels, finally formally acknowledging the contribution of coal, oil and gas to global warming.

This agreement was labelled the ‘beginning of the end’ for fossil fuels globally. While we still have a long way to go, the global energy mix is shifting away from coal, oil and gas:

  • Global emissions are slowing: the latest data shows that we are burning more fossil fuels than ever and emissions continue to climb, but the rate of growth has dropped from 2% per year to 0.6% per year. 
  • The world’s biggest polluter’s emissions have peaked: China’s emissions are already peaking, five years ahead of previous projections.
  • Countries are phasing out coal: this year, Ireland became the eighth country to phase out coal generation since the Paris Agreement was signed. Many more have committed to becoming coal-free over the coming years, including nearly the entire European Union.
  • More countries are committing to get off coal, oil and gas: Pacific Island Nations are leading a diplomatic campaign for a global phase out of coal, oil and gas, calling for a Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty. In addition, 62 countries led by the UK and Canada have pledged to phase out unabated coal generation completely through the Powering Past Coal Alliance.

Clean energy is transforming the world

The global energy transformation is gathering speed: low-emissions energy sources (including wind, solar, hydropower and nuclear) now generate more than 40% of the world’s electricity, compared to 33% in 2015. 

Clean energy is smashing records:

  • 2025 saw a significant milestone: in the first six months of 2025 the world generated more power from solar and wind than from coal.
  • Record-breaking renewable rollout: Global renewable electricity generation is expected to nearly double by 2030 – enough new renewable generation to meet the combined power demand of China and the US.
  • Solar is booming: ​​It took eight years for the world’s solar capacity to go from 100 TWh to 1,000 TWh, then just three years to double to 2,000 TWh. Solar prices have dropped 66% in the past decade, becoming the cheapest form of power in history.
  • Investment in clean energy has increased 10x: Investment in clean energy has grown from around US$230 billion in 2013, to $2.2 trillion in 2025 (equivalent to AU $3.4 trillion – twice as much as global investment in coal, oil and gas). 
  • China: The world’s biggest polluter, China, is transforming into a clean energy juggernaut. 
  • Cleaning up transport: One in five cars sold worldwide is now electric, compared to just 1% in 2015.

Read more in our report Power Shift: The US, China and the Race to Net Zero

Net zero is the global minimum

When the Paris Agreement was signed in 2015 no countries had formal net zero targets. Now, 

83% of the global economy has a net zero target. Analysis shows that climate targets are becoming more robust over time, covering more sectors and gases. The majority of countries also have targets to increase renewable generation.

The Paris Agreement aims to reach peak global greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible, reaching net zero by the second half of this century. If all countries follow through on their commitments, global emissions are expected to peak by 2030. However, to limit global heating to 1.5°C without overshoot, global climate pollution needed to peak this year, at the latest, and fall by 43% on 2019 levels by 2030. 

But global temperature is rising, and so are the impacts

We are already living in a hotter and more dangerous world, fuelled by climate pollution from coal, oil and gas. Today we are at 1.3°C of global warming, and the past three years have been the hottest on record

In 2015, the world was on a catastrophic path to an average global temperature increase of 4°C by the end of this century. Now, according to the latest official data, we are tracking towards 2.3 – 2.5°C, if countries reach their targets. 

This is a more dangerous future, and still falls far short of what is needed. Global warming of 1.5°C is considered the upper limit of what vulnerable communities, coral reefs, and many ecosystems can withstand. Science is clear that crossing the 1.5°C threshold increases the risk of triggering irreversible and cascading climate impacts. Transformative action, delivered urgently, is needed to limit how much and for how long we overshoot this threshold, and to bring temperatures back down to safer levels.

The only way to do so is by cutting pollution from coal, oil and gas further and faster than we are today, in all the places we can do so.

With almost half the world’s population already vulnerable to the effects of climate change, global work to adapt, build resilience and deal with loss and damage caused by climate-driven disasters is critical. The Paris Agreement set a Global Goal on Adaptation to increase countries’ efforts to prepare for and manage the impacts of climate disasters. In 2023 countries agreed to an adaptation framework, and a key focus of COP30 in Belém is to establish indicators to measure this progress.

The international community has also established a new Loss and Damage fund, and as of June this year, 27 countries had pledged more than AU$1.2 billion. This represents a small fraction of the estimated economic costs of climate change-induced loss and damage in developing countries of up to $AU800 billion in 2030, rising to up to 2.6 trillion by 2050.

We need to do so much more – and Australia has a key role to play

Australia is a major climate polluter: we are the world’s 10th largest polluter on a per person basis, and one of the largest fossil fuel exporters. So we have an important role to play at home, and abroad. With the right policies, Australia can contribute to global goals while growing our own economy and creating skilled jobs. 

Powering past our climate targets

Under the Paris Agreement, the Albanese Government has pledged to cut climate pollution 43% by 2030, 62-70% below 2005 levels by 2035 and reach net zero by 2050. 

Our analysis shows we can, and should, be doing much more to keep Australians safer. Read more about our analysis of Australia’s target and temperature rise scenarios

To keep Australians safer from worsening climate harm, and unlock Australia’s economic opportunity, the Australian Government should put in place policies to not just meet a 70% reduction, but power past it. 

Growing green export industries

Australia also has a significant opportunity in the global shift to renewables. By making use of our abundant renewable resources and critical minerals we can support global decarbonisation while boosting our own economy and creating skilled jobs in future-focused export industries. Australia’s green export opportunity could create over 400,000 jobs by 2040, growing the economy by $100 billion per year. 

Phasing out fossil fuels

We must also deal with polluting fossil fuels. We can start by stopping approvals of new and expanded fossil fuel projects. At the moment our environment law doesn’t include any mechanism to consider the climate impacts of such projects on our environment.

The Government has approved seven coal and gas projects this year alone, and 32 since forming government in 2022. Another 42 are waiting to be assessed.

The Albanese Government can still deliver credible environment laws that protect the places we love from climate harm, and don’t undermine our climate laws and policies.

Find out how Australia’s national environment law measures up on climate, and how we can fix this.

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What is the Paris Agreement and why does Australia need to set a Nationally Determined Contribution? https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/paris-agreement-australia-nationally-determined-contribution/ Mon, 28 Jul 2025 05:08:06 +0000 https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/?p=169975 The Paris Agreement, adopted by 195 countries in 2015, represents the world’s collective approach to tackling climate change. Under the agreement, nations submit targets to cut climate pollution – described as Nationally Determined Contributions. Together, these targets chart a global pathway to slash climate pollution and prevent global temperatures from exceeding agreed limits. Under the […]

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The Paris Agreement, adopted by 195 countries in 2015, represents the world’s collective approach to tackling climate change. Under the agreement, nations submit targets to cut climate pollution – described as Nationally Determined Contributions. Together, these targets chart a global pathway to slash climate pollution and prevent global temperatures from exceeding agreed limits.

Under the Paris Agreement, countries are required to submit increasingly strong targets every five years, enabling them to “ratchet up” (or ramp up) their effort over time to cut climate pollution. 

National targets need to be backed by plans and policies to allow those planned reductions to be achieved. 

This year marks a critical moment for our climate future. Under the Paris Agreement, nations are required to submit new 2035 climate targets. Collectively, these targets must slash global climate pollution fast enough to keep temperatures within internationally agreed limits designed to prevent catastrophic harm to people and ecosystems.

The central goal of the Paris Agreement is “holding the increase in the global average  temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels” and pursuing efforts “to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.”

Australia’s 2035 climate target is an opportunity to set Australia on the right path, one which keeps our kids safer from the impacts of climate change and sets our economy up for success in a fossil fuel-free world. Climate Council’s report, Stronger Target, Safer Future: Why Australia’s 2035 Climate Target Matters, provides a framework for setting the strongest possible targets.

Securing a safer future means hitting the brakes on accelerating climate change

Climate science is clear: humanity is now releasing huge volumes of heat-trapping greenhouse gases into our atmosphere, primarily from the burning of coal, oil, and gas. This layer of gas acts like a blanket, trapping more heat every year. That heat fuels worsening extreme weather events and is dramatically damaging the ecological systems that sustain human life. In other words, we are living through a climate crisis.

In the future, the scale and severity of the climate crisis will depend on:

  • How quickly we cut climate pollution; and 
  • How much global temperatures rise as a result.

Every fraction of a degree of global temperature rise leads to more frequent and ferocious extreme weather events, ecosystem damage, and impacts on lives around the world. On the other hand, avoiding even a fraction of a degree of global heating is extremely significant in reducing risks to communities worldwide. 

Global average temperature rise is now 1.3°C above the pre-industrial average and, in 2024, global average temperatures hit 1.6°C over a full year, breaking through 1.5°C for the first time. Importantly, these temperature thresholds cannot be breached in a single year – climate science, and the Paris Agreement, take a longer-term view of global average temperature over decades. But this is a clear warning sign that we are moving closer and closer to exceeding the 1.5°C temperature threshold. 

We are currently on a trajectory towards drastic global temperature rise and catastrophic climate impacts that could undermine the foundations of our society, prosperity, and security. Swift action to slash climate pollution from the burning of coal, oil and gas is the only solution which can protect those most vulnerable to the catastrophic impacts.

“Climate history is playing out before our eyes. We’ve had not just one or two record-breaking years, but a full 10-year series. This has been accompanied by devastating and extreme weather, rising sea levels and melting ice, all powered by record-breaking greenhouse gas levels due to human activities.” – WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo. 

The rate of global warming is now 0.27°C per decade and, without urgent efforts to cut climate pollution, we will overshoot the Paris Agreement’s goal of holding warming well below 2ºC in less than two decades. Climate change is accelerating and the risks are escalating at a much quicker pace than we previously thought.

The UN’s latest assessment concluded that the “current national climate plans fall miles short of what’s needed to stop global heating from crippling every economy, and wrecking billions of lives and livelihoods across every country”. 

It is in this context that countries are required to submit their 2035 target under the Paris Agreement later this year.

What climate target should Australia commit to?

Australia will submit our new 2035 climate target, a Nationally Determined Contribution, under the Paris Agreement this year. The current target, to reduce Australia’s climate pollution 43% on 2005 levels by 2030, was legislated in 2022.

The Climate Change Authority has been charged with providing advice to the Australian Government on setting and achieving its 2035 target. This advice is expected to be shared imminently. In 2024, the Authority released an issues paper, ‘Targets, Pathways and Progress’, which considered a target range of 65-75% below 2005 levels by 2035.

In anticipation of this advice being provided to the Australian Government, Climate Council commissioned Climate Resource to assess the global warming implications of an Australian 2035 climate target. The analysis uses the latest emissions data and shows what an Australian target means for global average temperature risk.

This new analysis shows the only Australian target that’s compatible with holding global warming below 2°C is net zero by 2035. The closer the Australian Government’s 2035 climate target gets to net zero, the less climate risk Australians face. 

The analysis also shows that a 2035 climate target of -75% or more (on 2005 levels) is aligned with more than 2°C of global heating, but likely less than 2.3°C*. Weaker targets are aligned with even higher levels of global heating. Each fraction of a degree of global heating is associated with more catastrophic impacts to communities and ecosystems. A -65% target is aligned with below 2.4°C of global heating.

The Australian Government must set the strongest possible 2035 climate target. A stronger target will keep Australians safer. A weaker target risks more disasters, more damage and more danger.

Climate consequences if the world fails to set strong targets

As our climate has warmed, Australia has been being hit hard. Where long-term global warming is currently about 1.3°C above pre-industrial levels, Australia has warmed by an average of around 1.51°C since national records began in 1910.

This increase in temperature is fuelling more frequent and intense extreme weather events, including extreme heat, heavy rainfall, coastal inundation, dangerous bushfire weather and drought. Many communities have now experienced back-to-back disasters that would have previously been considered a 1-in-50 or 1-in-100 year weather event. 

The IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C (IPCC 2018) shows the risks for both human and natural systems are lower if global temperature rise stabilises at 1.5°C. There are substantial increases in extreme weather events (e.g. extreme heat, heavy precipitation events and drought) between 1.5°C and 2°C. Impacts on land-based biodiversity and ecosystems are less at 1.5°C than 2°C, but overshooting the 1.5°C target could have irreversible impacts on some species and ecosystems. 

Climate change is accelerating, and current global efforts – including Australia’s – are dangerously inadequate. The future scale and severity of the climate crisis will depend on how quickly and deeply we slash global climate pollution. Each fraction of a degree of global heating is associated with more catastrophic impacts to communities and ecosystems.

For more information see our Stronger Target, Safer Future: Why Australia’s 2035 Climate Target Matters report.

Climate Council has launched a petition calling on the Australian Government to set the strongest possible 2035 climate target – and take urgent action to meet it!

*Assuming other countries adopt the same per-capita share of the global carbon budget.

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Why Australia needs to set a strong climate target this year https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/why-australia-needs-to-set-a-strong-climate-target-this-year/ Mon, 28 Jul 2025 04:55:15 +0000 https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/?p=169971 For at least 30 years, since the publication of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s ‘First Assessment Report’ in 1990, scientists have issued progressively more urgent calls to tackle the escalating climate crisis, driven by the burning of coal, oil and gas. The Albanese Labor Government’s imminent decision on Australia’s 2035 climate target will shape […]

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For at least 30 years, since the publication of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s ‘First Assessment Report’ in 1990, scientists have issued progressively more urgent calls to tackle the escalating climate crisis, driven by the burning of coal, oil and gas.

The Albanese Labor Government’s imminent decision on Australia’s 2035 climate target will shape the lives of every Australian. Climate Council’s latest report, Stronger Target, Safer Future: Why Australia’s 2035 Climate Target Matters, warns the safety, security and prosperity of our communities and environment is at stake as the government finalises their decision.

The science is clear. To do our fair share to hold global warming to well below 2°C, Australia needs to reduce climate pollution to 75% below 2005 levels by 2030, and reach net zero by 2035. Every fraction of a degree of warming avoided matters. While some climate impacts are getting progressively worse, like heatwaves or bushfire risk, beyond 2°C scientists warn that we will see abrupt, irreversible changes or tipping points that supercharge global warming and cause widespread system collapse, like:

  • The loss of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, leading to multi-metre sea level rise.
  • Frozen soils in the Arctic melt, releasing vast quantities of heat-trapping gases. 
  • The Amazon rainforest experiences massive dieback – where plants die off en masse – releasing huge volumes of heat-trapping gases.

Why is Australia setting a 2035 climate target?

The Paris Agreement, adopted by 195 countries in 2015, represents the world’s collective approach to tackling climate change. Under the agreement, nations submit targets to cut climate pollution – described as Nationally Determined Contributions – every five years, enabling them to ramp up efforts over time to cut climate pollution. Together, these targets chart a global pathway to slash climate pollution and prevent global temperatures from exceeding agreed limits.

Like countries world-wide, Australia is expected to submit our 2035 climate target this year. The current target, to reduce Australia’s climate pollution 43% on 2005 levels by 2030, was legislated in 2022

Australia’s 2035 climate target is an opportunity to set Australia on the right path, one which keeps our kids safer from climate change and sets our economy up for success in a fossil fuel-free world. 

What climate target should Australia commit to?

Climate Council commissioned Climate Resource to assess the global warming implications of an Australian 2035 climate target. The analysis uses the latest emissions data and shows what an Australian target means for global average temperature risk.

This new analysis shows the only Australian target that’s compatible with holding global warming below 2°C is net zero by 2035. The closer the Australian Government’s 2035 climate target gets to net zero, the less climate risk Australians face. 

The analysis also shows that a 2035 climate target to reduce pollution by 75% or more puts the world on track to heat by more than 2°C but likely less than by 2.3°C, if other countries adopt the same per capita share of the remaining global budget from 2024 onwards.

Weaker targets are aligned with even higher levels of global heating. Each fraction of a degree of global heating is associated with more catastrophic impacts to communities and ecosystems. A 2035 target to reduce pollution by 65% is aligned with below 2.4°C of global heating.

At the end of the day, the stronger the climate target, the safer Australians are from climate risks. On the other hand, the weaker the target, the more vulnerable we become.

What targets are possible for Australia to achieve over the next decade?

Several significant Australian-based research projects have demonstrated that deep cuts to climate pollution in the next 10 years are possible. 

  • The CSIRO’s pathway to reduce emissions by 75% on 2005 levels by 2035 and reach net zero by 2040. Under this scenario, average real GDP growth from 2020 to 2050 would only be 0.03 percentage points lower than the net zero by 2050 scenario, a cost significantly less than the economic, social and health benefits of cutting emissions.
  • ClimateWorks Centre’s decarbonisation modelling, which shows how Australia can reduce emissions by 85% by 2035, demonstrates that a stronger 2035 target is achievable. 
  • Climate Council’s Seize the Decade report shows that, by going all-in on proven clean technology that’s already available, Australia could reach a 75% climate pollution cut this decade. This suggests much more is possible by 2035, with further time available for technology development, the rollout of solutions like batteries, electric vehicles and electrification, and the wider availability of zero-emissions fuels like green hydrogen and sustainable aviation fuels.

What changes would Australia need to make to deliver a strong 2035 climate target?

Achieving stronger climate targets will require more action across our economy to double down on what is already working, and build the clean industries of the future. Australian households and businesses will need to change the way they power themselves, make things, and get around. Australian governments will face changes to revenue sources as coal and gas exports decline, and new industries emerge. 

We’re already making progress in Australia, with existing policies and efforts projected to cut climate pollution by almost 43% on 2005 levels by 2030 – a 13 percentage point improvement from 2021 projections. Already, a 51% climate pollution cut is projected by 2035 just by implementing current policies.

To protect Australians from the consequences of the climate crisis, Australia can also consider tackling its global carbon footprint by:

  • Developing clean industries that contribute to global pollution reduction. For example, by developing green metals, cathode and battery manufacturing, sustainable shipping and aviation fuels;
  • Supporting developing countries in their transition through climate finance or other mechanisms; and 
  • Reducing our exported climate pollution, particularly by not approving new fossil fuel projects.

In recent years, climate solutions have been delivered at a speed and scale that has surpassed expectations. The last decade has seen incredible progress, with the cost of many climate solutions reducing dramatically. The key lesson here is our ambitions should not be constrained by what we currently consider to be the limit of our clean energy potential. Just as progress in renewable electricity outstripped all expectations over the last decade, progress in industrial decarbonisation and harder-to-abate sectors can far exceed our current projections over the next. 

By aiming high we give ourselves the best opportunity at fulfilling our true potential. The climate crisis demands that we do everything we can, everywhere we can, as fast as we can.

Climate consequences if the world fails to set strong targets

As our climate has warmed, Australia has been hit hard. Where long-term global warming is currently about 1.3°C above pre-industrial levels, Australia has warmed by an average of around 1.51°C since national records began in 1910.

This increase in temperature is fuelling more frequent and intense extreme weather events, including extreme heat, heavy rainfall, coastal inundation, dangerous bushfire weather and drought. Many communities have now experienced back-to-back disasters that would have previously been considered a 1-in-50 or 1-in-100 year weather event. 

Climate-driven extreme weather events in Australia are already becoming more frequent and intense, with devastating impacts. 

The future scale and severity of the climate crisis will depend on how quickly and deeply we slash global climate pollution. Each fraction of a degree of global heating is associated with more catastrophic impacts to communities and ecosystems.

For more information see our Stronger Target, Safer Future: Why Australia’s 2035 Climate Target Matters report.

Climate Council has launched a petition calling on the Australian Government to set the strongest possible 2035 climate target – and take urgent action to meet it!

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An international court ruling, proof that the world can follow the Pacific’s lead on climate action https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/an-international-court-ruling-proof-that-the-world-can-follow-the-pacifics-lead-on-climate-action/ Fri, 25 Jul 2025 06:30:02 +0000 https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/?p=170031 This week the International Court of Justice delivered a strong advisory opinion that States have a clear legal obligation to cut emissions, prevent harm to the climate system and in some cases, pay for historical damages caused by their emissions. What does this mean for those of us on the frontlines of climate impacts? This […]

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This week the International Court of Justice delivered a strong advisory opinion that States have a clear legal obligation to cut emissions, prevent harm to the climate system and in some cases, pay for historical damages caused by their emissions. What does this mean for those of us on the frontlines of climate impacts? This means that international law is now on our side. It can now evaluate States’ climate obligations not just in terms of emissions, but in terms of how the climate crisis has impacted our basic human rights and losses. While not binding, these advisory opinions shape international norms and inform legal action.

What began as a group of 27 Pacific Island law students is now a turning point that strengthens a struggling multilateral system for climate action. The Vanuatu government was also a driving force behind this first ever legal opinion on climate change. With these proceedings, we are seeing a familiar storyline play out in the international arena, one that the Pacific is all too familiar with – that if we want to survive the climate crisis, it is up to us to chart the path of least destruction. Whether or not the world follows our lead has differed over history.

Ten years ago, those of us present in Paris cried tears of resolve and pride when Republic of the Marshall Islands Foreign Minister, Tony De Brum, masterfully led the High Ambition Coalition to negotiate and secure what we now know as the Paris Agreement. The world then followed suit with their national emissions targets, some worthy of the phrase “climate action”, and some not. In 2022, Tuvalu became the first country to call for a Fossil Fuel Non Proliferation Treaty, with 135 cities and subnational governments today backing that same call. Over the years, Pacific Island states have attempted to set high bars for climate ambition and prayed that those with the power to impact global emissions saw our survival as worth fighting for.

Today, this call-and-response is again at play for the Pacific. When we became aware of Australia’s intentions to host COP31 as an Australia-Pacific COP, we saw the opportunity to chart a path encouraging Australia’s climate leadership. But it has been no easy feat. When the Australian government signalled its addiction to gas expansion in Canberra last May, a group of Pacific Islanders took to parliament lawns calling for a renewable energy transition instead – both domestically and within the Pacific region. Climate Minister Chris Bowen’s recent visit to the Pacific indicated that Australia’s direction, at least in terms of a Pacific energy transition, could be looking positive. On this four-nation tour, Australia committed $16.4 million to upgrade Palau’s electricity network and shift to renewable energy. This includes the 15MW Palau Solar Farm, one of the Pacific’s largest solar power projects. However, President Surangel Whipps Jr of Palau has made it clear that a “Pacific COP” would require more than renewable energy investments. It would call on Australia to address its gas addiction and position as one of the top-three fossil fuel exporters in the world.

The issue of Australia’s coal and gas exports is the stain on Australia’s potential climate legacy. Even as Australia courts Pacific leaders in their bid for COP31, Environment Minister Murray Watt recently approved the extension of the Woodside’s North West Shelf gas plant, one of the world’s biggest fossil gas projects, prolonging its life from 2030 to 2070. The extension is expected to be responsible for about 87.9m tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent every year in the decades ahead. Acts of hypocrisy like this make it increasingly difficult to trust Australia as a partner to Pacific peoples, as continued fossil fuel exports exacerbate climate disasters across our islands.

So as we skate dangerously close to the 1.5 degree target set in Paris, we cannot allow the next five years to be where we lose our fight against the climate crisis. Australia’s current emissions reduction target of 43% by 2030 is woefully short of what’s required to keep global heating below 1.5 degrees, and predictions of its revised emissions target due this year are still unclear. As a potential COP host within this critical timeframe, Australia has the opportunity and responsibility to up its climate game significantly – but only by listening to Pacific co-hosts and following our lead.

We have dreams and pathways for a Pacific free from fossil fuels and climate catastrophe, and we are actively trying to secure the resources and relationships to make that a reality. We have employed everything at our disposal to realise this dream, from diplomacy to litigation to grassroots activism. It is clear that both history and international law are on our side. What remains to be seen is how Australia responds to the role they’ve been cast in the story of our survival.

Author: Fenton Lutunatabua, 350.org Deputy Head of Regions and founder of the Pacific Climate Warriors.

Photo: ABC News

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Implications of the International Court of Justice decision for Australia https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/implications-of-the-international-court-of-justice-decision-for-australia/ Fri, 25 Jul 2025 00:14:12 +0000 https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/?p=170024 A historic and unanimous statement of the International Court of Justice has confirmed countries’ strong obligations under international law to slash climate pollution, and sets out the expected legal consequences for breaching these obligations.  Climate Council Preliminary Analysis, “Obligations of the States in Respect of Climate Council”. The advice shows: 1. Countries have very strong […]

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A historic and unanimous statement of the International Court of Justice has confirmed countries’ strong obligations under international law to slash climate pollution, and sets out the expected legal consequences for breaching these obligations. 

Climate Council Preliminary Analysis, “Obligations of the States in Respect of Climate Council”.

The advice shows:

1. Countries have very strong obligations under international law to cut climate pollution and prevent significant harm to the global climate that sustains human life. 

The Court refers both to climate treaties and other bodies of international law.

2. Australia is obligated to set strong, science aligned climate targets.

The Court makes clear that it “considers the 1.5°C threshold to be the parties’ agreed primary temperature goal for limiting the global average temperature increase under the Paris Agreement.” It states that countries “Nationally Determined Contribution” (NDC),  which includes the 2035 climate target, must be in line with the Paris Agreement goal to limit global temperature increase to 1.5°C. The advice further emphasises that each country must “do its utmost to ensure that the NDCs it puts forward represent its highest possible ambition in order to realize the objectives of the [Paris] Agreement.” 

Yesterday, the Climate Council released the latest scientific data showing that this goal is almost out of reach for Australia due to a decade of delayed action (2013-2022). That research shows net zero by 2035 is the only climate target available to Australia with a strong chance of contributing to holding global warming below 2°C.  However, the Court makes clear that to be aligned with Paris obligations a country’s actions should be consistent with holding warming to 1.5°C. Therefore Australia may be obligated to contribute to global efforts to slash climate pollution as well as take steps at home – for instance building new industries (e.g. green iron) and preventing new fossil fuel projects.

The Federal Government has accelerated climate action in the last three years, including reaching 43% renewable power in Australia’s main grid. The action must now be strengthened to meet our international obligations.

The Australian Government is expected to make its decision on Australia’s 2035 climate target in the coming months. The Court’s advice makes clear that a target should be as strong as possible and accompanied by plans and policies to implement that target. It can further be argued that, to comply with international law, this judgement requires Australia to both set a strong national target and take action on exported emissions to help hold global heating to 1.5°C.

3. On-going production, consumption and granting of licenses and subsidies for fossil fuels could constitute wrongful acts under international law. Wrongful acts may trigger obligations to compensate other countries suffering from climate harm. 

The Court states that: “What constitutes a wrongful act is not the emissions in and of themselves, but actions or omissions causing significant harm to the climate system in breach of a state’s international obligations.”

The Federal Government has argued that Australia is not responsible for the emissions from Australia’s vast exports of coal and gas. The Court disagrees. Australia is one of the largest exporters of fossil fuels, therefore there is a strong case that ongoing support and expansion of Australia’s export industry constitutes “significant harm to the climate system”.

The Court finds that individual countries can still be found responsible, even if it is hard to identify a specific share of harm they have caused. The Court notes that it is “scientifically possible to determine each State’s total contribution to global emissions, taking into account both historical and current emissions.” 

Given Australia has consistently been one of the highest per capita polluters in the world and one of the world’s most prolific fossil fuel exporters, it can also be argued that Australia’s relative share of harm is significant. This will also likely be argued in respect to other countries that are major polluters and fossil fuel exporters.

The Court states that wrongful acts – which could include breaching treaty obligations or failing to regulate climate pollution – under international law could trigger repatriation obligations, including obligations to compensate other countries harmed by climate disasters. 

The Court also finds an obligation for countries to limit climate pollution from private actors in its jurisdiction. This appears to be a broad definition that would apply to fossil fuels production for international or domestic use.

The Court’s advice gives the Australian government reason to consider the totality of Australia’s contribution to climate harm, including our exported climate pollution. In particular, the Court’s decision is pertinent to the Federal Government’s review of Australia’s national environment laws. Currently, when the Federal Environment Minister considers whether to approve new fossil fuel projects there is no provision in the act to consider the climate pollution from that project. Given the Court’s very strong findings, it will be difficult for the Australian government to argue that it has the “highest possible ambition in order to realize the objectives of the [Paris] Agreement”, if it does not reform the environment laws and/or take other substantive measures to prevent the expansion of Australia’s fossil fuel industry.

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As Los Angeles combusts, 2024 is declared Earth’s hottest on record https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/as-los-angeles-combusts-2024-is-declared-earths-hottest-on-record/ Fri, 10 Jan 2025 04:23:51 +0000 https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/?p=169110 This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article. Written by Climate Councillor, Professor David Karoly and Associate Professor Andrew King. The year 2024 was the world’s warmest on record globally, and the first calendar year in which global temperatures exceeded 1.5°C above its pre-industrial levels. The official declaration was made on Friday by the Copernicus Climate […]

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This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license.

Read the original article. Written by Climate Councillor, Professor David Karoly and Associate Professor Andrew King.


The year 2024 was the world’s warmest on record globally, and the first calendar year in which global temperatures exceeded 1.5°C above its pre-industrial levels.

The official declaration was made on Friday by the Copernicus Climate Change Service, the European Union’s Earth observation program. It comes as wildfires continue to tear through Los Angeles, California – a disaster scientists say was made worse by climate change.

This record-breaking global heat is primarily driven by humanity’s ongoing greenhouse gas emissions, caused by the burning of fossil fuels. The warming won’t stop until we reach net-zero emissions.

Clearly, the need for humanity to rapidly reduce its greenhouse gas emissions has never been more urgent.

Graphic from Copernicus showing Earth experienced record high temperatures in 2024. Copernicus

An exceptional year

The Copernicus findings are consistent with other leading global temperature datasets indicating 2024 was the hottest year since records began in 1850.

The global average temperature in 2024 was about 1.6°C above the average temperatures in the late-19th century (which is used to represent pre-industrial levels).

On July 22 last year, the daily global average temperature reached 17.16°C. This was a new record high.

Copernicus also found that each year in the last decade was one of the ten warmest on record. According to Copernicus director Carlo Buontempo:

We are now teetering on the edge of passing the 1.5ºC level defined in the Paris Agreement and the average of the last two years is already above this level.

These high global temperatures, coupled with record global atmospheric water vapour levels in 2024, meant unprecedented heatwaves and heavy rainfall events, causing misery for millions of people.

house burns behind sign reading 'peace'
A home burns in the Pacific Palisades neighborhood of Los Angeles, California. Allison Dinner/EPA

How scientists take Earth’s temperature

Estimating the global average surface temperature is no mean feat. The methods vary between organisations, but the overall picture is the same: 2024 was the world’s hottest year on record.

The high global average temperature of 2024 wouldn’t have been possible without humanity’s greenhouse gas emissions. The El Niño climate driver also played a role in the first part of the year. It warmed Earth’s surface – particularly over a large swathe of the central and eastern Pacific – and increased global average surface temperature by up to 0.2°C.

Very few areas were cooler than average in 2024 and many land areas saw much higher temperatures than normal. Copernicus

What about Australia?

Copernicus found 2024 was the warmest year for all continents except Antarctica and Australasia.

But Australia is feeling the shift into a hotter, less hospitable climate, too. Last year was Australia’s second-hottest year on record, according to a declaration last week by the Bureau of Meteorology.

The hottest was 2019, when a blisteringly hot and dry spring led to the widespread bushfires of the Black Summer. Unlike 2019, Australia had a wetter than normal year in 2024.

However, 2024 was the hottest year on record for the southwest of Australia and parts of the centre and east of the continent.

It was Australia’s second-hottest year on record, with most of the continent seeing temperatures very much above average. Bureau of Meteorology

Apart from April, Australia saw unusual warmth through all of 2024. August was the standout month for record-breaking heat.

In general, temperature records are broken more easily at the global scale than in individual regions. That’s because weather is more variable at the local level than on a global average. A period of, say, very cold weather in one part of a continent can bring down annual average temperatures there, preventing records from being broken.

That’s why Australia’s annual average temperatures have reached record highs three times since 2000 – in 2005, 2013 and 2019 – whereas the global average temperature set six new records in that period.

Does this mean the Paris Agreement has failed?

The global Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. So, if 2024 was about 1.6°C above pre-industrial levels, you might think the world has failed to meet this goal. But it hasn’t, yet.

The success of the Paris Agreement will be measured against longer periods than temperatures over a year. That eliminates natural climate variability and factors such as El Niño and La Niña, to build a clearer picture of climate change.

However, the statistics for 2024 are certainly a bad sign. It shows humanity has its work cut out to keep global warming well below 2°C, let alone 1.5°C.

More heat guaranteed

There’s one very important thing to understand about climate change: the amount of greenhouse gases that humans emit over time is roughly proportional to the increase in global temperatures over that same period.

This near-linear relationship means every tonne of greenhouse gas emissions from human activity causes about the same amount of global warming. So, the faster we decarbonise the global economy, the sooner we can halt global warming and reduce its harms.

This year is unlikely to be quite as hot as 2024 because the El Niño has passed. But unfortunately, Earth will continue to experience record hot global temperatures for at least the next few decades.

This is all the more reason for humanity to move faster in decarbonising our society and economy. It’s not too late to shift the long-term trajectory of Earth’s climate.

The Conversation

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Discover Australia’s Top 10 Solar Suburbs https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/discover-australias-top-10-solar-suburbs/ Wed, 18 Sep 2024 14:01:00 +0000 https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/?p=167877 Australia is the sunniest continent in the world, and Aussie households are world leaders when it comes to harnessing energy from the sun to power our lives. Over 3.6 million Australian households have already taken control of their energy bills by installing solar on their roof, a stunning achievement, and the average solar powered household […]

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Australia is the sunniest continent in the world, and Aussie households are world leaders when it comes to harnessing energy from the sun to power our lives. Over 3.6 million Australian households have already taken control of their energy bills by installing solar on their roof, a stunning achievement, and the average solar powered household is saving over $1500 every year! 

A few superstar suburbs are leading the charge when it comes to rooftop solar capacity, and that’s worth celebrating. So let’s give a shout out to our top ten solar suburbs!

The Solar Suburb Leaderboard

#10

Queensland’s Glenwood now has another claim to fame besides the annual ‘Swap Car and Bike show’. Over the past year, residents collectively installed 11.71 MW of rooftop solar capacity, enough electricity to power 3500 homes.

#9

The Burragorang Lookout isn’t the only good view from Camden, New South Wales. Their rooftop solar installations are looking pretty good too, with a combined installed capacity of 14.87 MW in just the last 12 months, which could power 4500 homes.

#8

As if stunning coral reefs, nearby islands and world-famous whale watching wasn’t enough, Hervey Bay in Queensland has harnessed the power of the sun by adding 15.01 MW of rooftop solar between 2023-2024. That’s enough clean energy to power 4500 homes! 

#7

It would be surprising if a town along the Sunshine Coast failed to make it into Australia’s top 10 solar suburbs. Caloundra, Queensland, had an impressive 15.45 MW of rooftop solar capacity installed over the last year, enough to power 4600 households. 

#6

The thriving community of Roxburgh Park, Victoria, has shone over the past year, with 15.79 MW of solar capacity added across the township. That much energy could power 4700 homes!

#5

The unassuming residential suburb of Kellyville, New South Wales, comes in at number five, with 16.08 MW of rooftop solar capacity added throughout the last twelve months.

#4

It’s not just the rum that’s big in Bundaberg, Queensland! The community had 16.34 MW of rooftop solar capacity installed over the past 12 months. 

#3

It might be known as the ‘Sugar Capital of Australia’, but to us it’s the 3rd most impressive suburb for solar installation capacity over the past 12 months! Mackay, Qld added a combined capacity of 16.34 MW. With that much power, they can power more than 6100 homes!  

#2

The small town of Tarneit, just outside of Melbourne in Victoria, had a whopping 22.60 MW rooftop solar installation capacity over the past 12 months, which is seriously impressive. That means they’re producing enough clean energy to power 6800 households! 

#1

And finally, coming in at number one…Box Hill, NSW, doesn’t have a box, or a hill, or even a boxy hill! But its community does have 27.69 MW of rooftop solar capacity installed in the past twelve months. This huge amount of energy could power a whopping 8300 homes! Shine on, Box Hill!

The State Leaderboard

When it comes to the state household solar leaderboard, well…it isn’t called ‘the sunshine state’ for nothing. Queensland leads the nation with the highest number of installations in 2023 at 54,365

read the full report here

Queensland is also the state with the highest number of solar installations, period. Almost one million homes in the sunshine state now have rooftop solar, adding more capacity than all of Queensland’s publicly-owned coal-fired power generators combined! Trailing in the sunshine state’s wake is:

  • Victoria, with 51,104 in 2023. 
  • New South Wales comes in third, with 48,470 installations. 
  • Western Australia is next, with a total of 44,899 installations. 
  • In fifth place is the Australian Capital Territory, with 22,803 installations. 
  • South Australia follows, with 20,849 installations. 
  • Second to last, we have Northern Territory with 6,734 installations; and 
  • Rounding out the list is Tasmania with 6,070 installations. 

Let’s Seize the Sun

It’s time to seize the sun. Rooftop solar is popular around the country because families and communities understand its huge potential to cut electricity bills, give households more control over their energy needs, and slash climate pollution. A renewed push to share these benefits with more households and businesses can directly respond to the cost-of-living and energy pressures Australians are feeling now.

To seize the sun and realise our household solar potential, our governments have an important role to play. They can do this by implementing the following policies: 

  • Aussie Solar Drive – a bold national push to double rooftop solar and storage capacity by the end of the decade. This plan will empower millions of Aussies with cleaner, cheaper electricity, while strengthening our national grid and permanently cutting climate pollution across the economy.
  • Australian Energy Corps – Australia’s biggest-ever energy training initiative, equipping young people and experienced energy workers with the skills to power up Australia in secure, well-paid jobs. 

Everyone should have the opportunity to access clean, reliable and affordable electricity. If we get the policies right,two in three Australian homes and many more businesses will experience these benefits this decade. For millions more,  clean and affordable solar power will come from a grid boosted by abundant electricity made cheaply during our sunny days, and captured and stored in communities close to home and available to use when it is needed most. This is the bright future that a supercharged rooftop solar and storage plan for Australia offers. So, let’s get on with it!

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Which future? Japan’s net zero vision for the region boosts gas and threatens green exports in Australia https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/japans-net-zero-vision-region-boosts-gas-threatens-green-exports/ Thu, 22 Aug 2024 04:02:25 +0000 https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/?p=167616 This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article. Written by Climate Council Fellow Wesley Morgan Japan has a very clear vision of what the Asia-Pacific’s clean energy future looks like – decarbonisation, but done slowly and with a longer role for coal, oil and gas. It was on full display this week as […]

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This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license.

Read the original article. Written by Climate Council Fellow Wesley Morgan


Japan has a very clear vision of what the Asia-Pacific’s clean energy future looks like – decarbonisation, but done slowly and with a longer role for coal, oil and gas.

It was on full display this week as energy ministers from nine South-East Asian nations, Japan and Australia gathered in Jakarta to hash out a shared vision for Asia’s energy future, under Japan’s Asian Zero Emissions Community (AZEC) initiative launched last year.

But there’s a clear problem here. Japan’s vision clashes directly with Australia’s efforts to become a green export superpower. And worse, Japanese investment is a key reason why Australia has emerged as an unlikely gas export giant.

Energy security is front of mind for Japanese policymakers worried about keeping the lights on across their import-dependent archipelago. While Tokyo does have green energy plans, its short-term push is all about prolonging the life of fossil fuels – coupled with carbon capture.

Labor came to power promising to act faster on climate change. By decade’s end, Australia should be largely run on renewables, and Canberra wants to make clean exports a reality.

But Japan is making that harder by financing gas exploitation in Australia. This could lock our fast-growing and energy-hungry region into much longer reliance on dirty fossil fuels and questionable carbon capture plans.

There’s a real danger Australia’s green export plans could be washed away by a tide of new fossil fuels.

protestors handing petition in jakarta
Indonesian protestors at this week’s AZEC summit gave a petition to Japanese embassy staff over concerns the new push would set back clean energy plans. Bagus Indahono/EPA

So what are Japan’s zero emission plans?

In 2022, the Japanese Prime Minister Kishido Fumio began promoting a triple breakthrough – efforts combining decarbonisation, economic growth and energy security. Fumio launched the Asian Zero Emissions Community to encourage the idea.

While these goals sound reasonable, the devil is in the detail. The world’s fourth-largest economy, Japan has long been dependent on imported coal, oil and gas – and more so after the 2011 Fukushima disaster forced nuclear plant shutdowns. Even as the world belatedly scrambles to tackle climate change, Japanese policymakers are still focused on keeping fossil fuels flowing. Many AZEC projects aim to use fossil fuels for electricity.

The government’s energy policies explicitly aim to secure long-term supplies of fossil fuels and encourage Japanese firms to be involved. Japan is now the world’s second-largest public financier of international fossil fuel projects, spending more than A$7 billion every year.

How does this align with net zero? Japan claims new fossil fuel plants can slash emissions by burning ammonia in coal plants, blending hydrogen with fossil gas in gas plants and ramping up carbon capture and storage.

Each of these technologies is expensive and largely unproven. They cannot cut emissions at anywhere near the scale or speed needed. And every million spent on propping up fossil fuels is a million not spent on renewables and storage.

jakarta traffic
As Indonesia and other South East Asian nations grow, they need more energy. Will it come from fossil fuels or renewables? Saelanlerez/Shutterstock

Japanese funding makes Australian gas flow

Japan sees Australia as a friendly nation with huge fossil fuel resources and longstanding trade links.

Any changes to coal and gas extraction have been met with Japanese lobbying. When Queensland hiked coal royalties in 2022, Japan’s ambassador to Australia, Shingo Yamagami, pushed back hard. The move, he warned, could have “widespread effects on Japanese investment beyond the coal industry”.

When the federal government strengthened the Safeguard Mechanism, our main industrial emissions policy, costs increased for some gas projects. In response, Yamagami dialed up his rhetoric, warning the neon lights of Tokyo would go out without Australian energy exports.

tokyo night panorama
Would the lights of Tokyo go out without Australian gas? takuya kanzaki/Shutterstock

Japan isn’t burning it all at home. It on-sells more liquefied natural gas (LNG) to other Asian nations than it imports from Australia. Without Japan’s funding on favourable terms, our LNG producers would not be able to compete with lower-cost producers such as Qatar.

Given a global gas glut is now forecast to arrive by 2026, Australia should be looking to dial down LNG. But Japan won’t let that happen.

Just this year, Japan loaned $2.5 billion to help Woodside develop Western Australia’s massive Scarborough gas field.

Independent and green – or dependent and dirty?

Domestically, Australia is greening. Coal is retiring as renewables and storage rush in. Last year, 40% of the power in our main grid came from clean energy and more than 80% of Australia’s total power needs should be provided by renewables by 2030. But internationally, we’re now the second-largest exporter of carbon emissions from fossil fuels.

With major reserves of critical minerals (essential for renewables and batteries) and world class renewable resources, Australia is ideally placed to export green commodities to the region.

The Albanese government is promoting Australia as a “renewable energy superpower” and will invest public money through the Future Made in Australia plan to give local green industries a chance of global success.

But Japan has a different vision. Funding flows from Tokyo have already distorted Australia’s energy market and boosted demand for gas in the region. Worse, it has made it harder for Australian leaders to create future-focused industries. New gas projects pull investment, workers and supply-chain capacity away from clean energy industries.

It’s not that Japan is anti-renewable. It’s just slow to move. Tokyo has ambitious plans to become the world’s top producer of energy from offshore wind.

Recent modelling shows Japan could achieve 90% clean energy by 2035, gaining far greater energy independence and slashing reliance on expensive fossil fuels. If Japan took this route, we would likely see its Australian investments shift from gas to green exports.

But right now, Japan’s focus is on keeping fossil fuels flowing.

Australia has to help shape Asia’s energy transition. If we don’t, we risk our future being made in Tokyo.

The Conversation

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Methane is turbocharging unnatural disasters – Australia must get serious about reducing emissions https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/methane-turbocharging-unnatural-disasters-australia-must-get-serious-about-reducing-emissions/ Wed, 31 Jul 2024 00:11:18 +0000 https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/?p=167577 This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article. Written by Professor Lesley Hughes One of the most significant achievements of the 26th United Nations climate conference in Glasgow (COP26) three years ago was the launch of the Global Methane Pledge. The goal is to reduce global methane emissions at least 30% by 2030. Methane […]

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This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license.

Read the original article. Written by Professor Lesley Hughes


One of the most significant achievements of the 26th United Nations climate conference in Glasgow (COP26) three years ago was the launch of the Global Methane Pledge. The goal is to reduce global methane emissions at least 30% by 2030.

Methane (CH₄) is the second most significant climate pollutant after carbon dioxide (CO₂). In the words of one of the architects of the pledge, then US Special Presidential Envoy for Climate, John Kerry, “tackling methane is the fastest, most effective way to reduce near-term warming and keep 1.5°C within reach”.

Australia signed up to the methane pledge in October 2022. It was a good start, but a promise is not a plan. To date, Australia has no official methane reduction targets, nor an agreed strategy to deal with this dangerous pollutant.

The Climate Council’s report, released today, sets out actions Australia can take right now to cut methane emissions. We need to get on with it.

Why should we care about methane?

Methane in the atmosphere is rising at a record rate: up about 260% since preindustrial times to a high not seen for at least 800,000 years.

Research just released shows if we don’t act, the problem will only worsen. It suggests increases in atmospheric methane are outpacing projected growth rates – threatening the global goal of reaching net-zero emissions by 2050.

The gas is likely responsible for at least 25 to 30% of warming Earth has experienced since the Industrial Revolution.

Methane is a “live fast, die young” gas, persisting in the atmosphere for a relatively short amount of time. But while it’s there, it punches above its weight in warming. Over 20 years, methane is about 85 times more effective at trapping heat than the equivalent amount of carbon dioxide.

After 100 years, it’s still about 28 times more effective at trapping heat.

This means methane has an outsized impact on warming in the short term, turbocharging unnatural disasters such as floods, bushfires and heatwaves.

Where does methane come from?

Roughly half of global methane pollution comes from human activities. The rest comes from natural sources such as wetlands and soils.

Australia produces more than its fair share of methane because we have such large fossil fuel and agriculture industries. We are the world’s 12th largest methane polluter, producing four to five times as much methane as would be expected based on population alone.

In the year to December 2023, Australia produced nearly four million tonnes of methane. The main sources from human activity were agriculture (52%), fossil fuel mining (25%) and waste (11%). The good news is there are plenty of ways to reduce emissions in each sector that we can and should implement right now.

Agriculture and fossil fuels produce most of Australia’s methane pollution. The Climate Council, using data from the National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Quarterly Update: December 2023 (DCCEEW, 2024).

What can we do about it?

The largest source of methane emissions in agriculture is the burps of ruminant animals – mainly cows and sheep.

Promising research suggests each animal’s methane production can be cut by as much as 90% using daily feed supplements. These include supplements from the red seaweed Asparagopsis, and the chemical marketed as 3-NOP.

Other approaches to reducing methane emissions from animals also show promise. They include vaccines that target methane-producing microbes in their guts, methane-reducing pasture species, and selective breeding.

These solutions should be scaled up and farmers encouraged to use them – for instance, by being eligible for carbon credits under the Emissions Reduction Fund.

Providing consumers with point-of-sale information about the climate impacts of their food choices could also serve to reduce the nation’s methane emissions. And the market can be encouraged to develop clear regulatory pathways for securing approval of animal-free protein and other lower-impact foods.

More than 90% of our food waste ends up in landfill where it produces methane when it rots. Composting is much better for the environment. Investing in organic collection services for food and garden waste, and tightening regulations to capture gas at landfill sites, can address much methane pollution from the waste sector.

We can’t control what we don’t measure. Currently, methane emissions are largely reported to the Clean Energy Regulator using indirect and outdated methods. The International Energy Agency estimates Australia could be under-reporting methane emissions from the coal and gas sector by up to 60%.

Fortunately, new global satellite capacity and, in Australia, the Open Methane visualisation tool, mean we can measure methane at its source far more accurately than before.

The federal government should make all coal and gas corporations directly measure and report their methane emissions from existing mines, in line with international best practice.

Every coal mine and gas plant produces methane during mining and processing. While we work towards phasing out fossil fuel mining, a few practical actions can reduce methane pollution:

  • require underground coal mines to capture and destroy the methane vented into the atmosphere
  • ban all non-emergency flaring and venting of gas
  • require all gas mining companies to address leaky infrastructure
  • ensure mining companies seal inactive mines.

Time for action

Without concerted action, global methane pollution from human activities is expected to rise 15% this decade. On the other hand, meeting the commitments of the Global Methane Pledge can reduce warming in the next few decades.

If the goals of the pledge are met, we could shave about 0.25°C off the global average temperature by mid-century, and more than 0.5°C by 2100.

The federal government should establish a national methane reduction target and a dedicated action plan. This should be part of our updated national emissions reduction target, due to be set in 2025.

We can’t take our foot off the pedal in cutting carbon dioxide. But at the same time, in the words of United Nations head Antonio Guterres, we have to do “everything, everywhere, all at once”.

The Conversation

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