Under the Paris Agreement, countries are required to submit increasingly strong targets every five years, enabling them to “ratchet up” (or ramp up) their effort over time to cut climate pollution. 

National targets need to be backed by plans and policies to allow those planned reductions to be achieved. 

This year marks a critical moment for our climate future. Under the Paris Agreement, nations are required to submit new 2035 climate targets. Collectively, these targets must slash global climate pollution fast enough to keep temperatures within internationally agreed limits designed to prevent catastrophic harm to people and ecosystems.

The central goal of the Paris Agreement is “holding the increase in the global average  temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels” and pursuing efforts “to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.”

Australia’s 2035 climate target is an opportunity to set Australia on the right path, one which keeps our kids safer from the impacts of climate change and sets our economy up for success in a fossil fuel-free world. Climate Council’s report, Stronger Target, Safer Future: Why Australia’s 2035 Climate Target Matters, provides a framework for setting the strongest possible targets.

Securing a safer future means hitting the brakes on accelerating climate change

Climate science is clear: humanity is now releasing huge volumes of heat-trapping greenhouse gases into our atmosphere, primarily from the burning of coal, oil, and gas. This layer of gas acts like a blanket, trapping more heat every year. That heat fuels worsening extreme weather events and is dramatically damaging the ecological systems that sustain human life. In other words, we are living through a climate crisis.

In the future, the scale and severity of the climate crisis will depend on:

• How quickly we cut climate pollution; and 
• How much global temperatures rise as a result.

Every fraction of a degree of global temperature rise leads to more frequent and ferocious extreme weather events, ecosystem damage, and impacts on lives around the world. On the other hand, avoiding even a fraction of a degree of global heating is extremely significant in reducing risks to communities worldwide. 

Global average temperature rise is now 1.3°C above the pre-industrial average and, in 2024, global average temperatures hit 1.6°C over a full year, breaking through 1.5°C for the first time. Importantly, these temperature thresholds cannot be breached in a single year – climate science, and the Paris Agreement, take a longer-term view of global average temperature over decades. But this is a clear warning sign that we are moving closer and closer to exceeding the 1.5°C temperature threshold. 

We are currently on a trajectory towards drastic global temperature rise and catastrophic climate impacts that could undermine the foundations of our society, prosperity, and security. Swift action to slash climate pollution from the burning of coal, oil and gas is the only solution which can protect those most vulnerable to the catastrophic impacts.

“Climate history is playing out before our eyes. We’ve had not just one or two record-breaking years, but a full 10-year series. This has been accompanied by devastating and extreme weather, rising sea levels and melting ice, all powered by record-breaking greenhouse gas levels due to human activities.” – WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo. 

The rate of global warming is now 0.27°C per decade and, without urgent efforts to cut climate pollution, we will overshoot the Paris Agreement’s goal of holding warming well below 2ºC in less than two decades. Climate change is accelerating and the risks are escalating at a much quicker pace than we previously thought.

The UN’s latest assessment concluded that the “current national climate plans fall miles short of what’s needed to stop global heating from crippling every economy, and wrecking billions of lives and livelihoods across every country”. 

It is in this context that countries are required to submit their 2035 target under the Paris Agreement later this year.

What climate target should Australia commit to?

Australia will submit our new 2035 climate target, a Nationally Determined Contribution, under the Paris Agreement this year. The current target, to reduce Australia’s climate pollution 43% on 2005 levels by 2030, was legislated in 2022.

The Climate Change Authority has been charged with providing advice to the Australian Government on setting and achieving its 2035 target. This advice is expected to be shared imminently. In 2024, the Authority released an issues paper, ‘Targets, Pathways and Progress’, which considered a target range of 65-75% below 2005 levels by 2035.

In anticipation of this advice being provided to the Australian Government, Climate Council commissioned Climate Resource to assess the global warming implications of an Australian 2035 climate target. The analysis uses the latest emissions data and shows what an Australian target means for global average temperature risk.

This new analysis shows the only Australian target that’s compatible with holding global warming below 2°C is net zero by 2035. The closer the Australian Government’s 2035 climate target gets to net zero, the less climate risk Australians face. 

The analysis also shows that a 2035 climate target of -75% or more (on 2005 levels) is aligned with more than 2°C of global heating, but likely less than 2.3°C*. Weaker targets are aligned with even higher levels of global heating. Each fraction of a degree of global heating is associated with more catastrophic impacts to communities and ecosystems. A -65% target is aligned with below 2.4°C of global heating.

The Australian Government must set the strongest possible 2035 climate target. A stronger target will keep Australians safer. A weaker target risks more disasters, more damage and more danger.

Climate consequences if the world fails to set strong targets

As our climate has warmed, Australia has been being hit hard. Where long-term global warming is currently about 1.3°C above pre-industrial levels, Australia has warmed by an average of around 1.51°C since national records began in 1910.

This increase in temperature is fuelling more frequent and intense extreme weather events, including extreme heat, heavy rainfall, coastal inundation, dangerous bushfire weather and drought. Many communities have now experienced back-to-back disasters that would have previously been considered a 1-in-50 or 1-in-100 year weather event. 

The IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C (IPCC 2018) shows the risks for both human and natural systems are lower if global temperature rise stabilises at 1.5°C. There are substantial increases in extreme weather events (e.g. extreme heat, heavy precipitation events and drought) between 1.5°C and 2°C. Impacts on land-based biodiversity and ecosystems are less at 1.5°C than 2°C, but overshooting the 1.5°C target could have irreversible impacts on some species and ecosystems. 

Climate change is accelerating, and current global efforts – including Australia’s – are dangerously inadequate. The future scale and severity of the climate crisis will depend on how quickly and deeply we slash global climate pollution. Each fraction of a degree of global heating is associated with more catastrophic impacts to communities and ecosystems.

For more information see our Stronger Target, Safer Future: Why Australia’s 2035 Climate Target Matters report.

Climate Council has launched a petition calling on the Australian Government to set the strongest possible 2035 climate target – and take urgent action to meet it!

*Assuming other countries adopt the same per-capita share of the global carbon budget.

The post What is the Paris Agreement and why does Australia need to set a Nationally Determined Contribution? appeared first on Climate Council.

The Albanese Labor Government’s imminent decision on Australia’s 2035 climate target will shape the lives of every Australian. Climate Council’s latest report, Stronger Target, Safer Future: Why Australia’s 2035 Climate Target Matters, warns the safety, security and prosperity of our communities and environment is at stake as the government finalises their decision.

The science is clear. To do our fair share to hold global warming to well below 2°C, Australia needs to reduce climate pollution to 75% below 2005 levels by 2030, and reach net zero by 2035. Every fraction of a degree of warming avoided matters. While some climate impacts are getting progressively worse, like heatwaves or bushfire risk, beyond 2°C scientists warn that we will see abrupt, irreversible changes or tipping points that supercharge global warming and cause widespread system collapse, like:

• The loss of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, leading to multi-metre sea level rise.
• Frozen soils in the Arctic melt, releasing vast quantities of heat-trapping gases. 
• The Amazon rainforest experiences massive dieback – where plants die off en masse – releasing huge volumes of heat-trapping gases.

Why is Australia setting a 2035 climate target?

The Paris Agreement, adopted by 195 countries in 2015, represents the world’s collective approach to tackling climate change. Under the agreement, nations submit targets to cut climate pollution – described as Nationally Determined Contributions – every five years, enabling them to ramp up efforts over time to cut climate pollution. Together, these targets chart a global pathway to slash climate pollution and prevent global temperatures from exceeding agreed limits.

Like countries world-wide, Australia is expected to submit our 2035 climate target this year. The current target, to reduce Australia’s climate pollution 43% on 2005 levels by 2030, was legislated in 2022

Australia’s 2035 climate target is an opportunity to set Australia on the right path, one which keeps our kids safer from climate change and sets our economy up for success in a fossil fuel-free world. 

What climate target should Australia commit to?

Climate Council commissioned Climate Resource to assess the global warming implications of an Australian 2035 climate target. The analysis uses the latest emissions data and shows what an Australian target means for global average temperature risk.

This new analysis shows the only Australian target that’s compatible with holding global warming below 2°C is net zero by 2035. The closer the Australian Government’s 2035 climate target gets to net zero, the less climate risk Australians face. 

The analysis also shows that a 2035 climate target to reduce pollution by 75% or more puts the world on track to heat by more than 2°C but likely less than by 2.3°C, if other countries adopt the same per capita share of the remaining global budget from 2024 onwards.

Weaker targets are aligned with even higher levels of global heating. Each fraction of a degree of global heating is associated with more catastrophic impacts to communities and ecosystems. A 2035 target to reduce pollution by 65% is aligned with below 2.4°C of global heating.

At the end of the day, the stronger the climate target, the safer Australians are from climate risks. On the other hand, the weaker the target, the more vulnerable we become.

What targets are possible for Australia to achieve over the next decade?

Several significant Australian-based research projects have demonstrated that deep cuts to climate pollution in the next 10 years are possible. 

• The CSIRO’s pathway to reduce emissions by 75% on 2005 levels by 2035 and reach net zero by 2040. Under this scenario, average real GDP growth from 2020 to 2050 would only be 0.03 percentage points lower than the net zero by 2050 scenario, a cost significantly less than the economic, social and health benefits of cutting emissions.
• ClimateWorks Centre’s decarbonisation modelling, which shows how Australia can reduce emissions by 85% by 2035, demonstrates that a stronger 2035 target is achievable. 
• Climate Council’s Seize the Decade report shows that, by going all-in on proven clean technology that’s already available, Australia could reach a 75% climate pollution cut this decade. This suggests much more is possible by 2035, with further time available for technology development, the rollout of solutions like batteries, electric vehicles and electrification, and the wider availability of zero-emissions fuels like green hydrogen and sustainable aviation fuels.

What changes would Australia need to make to deliver a strong 2035 climate target?

Achieving stronger climate targets will require more action across our economy to double down on what is already working, and build the clean industries of the future. Australian households and businesses will need to change the way they power themselves, make things, and get around. Australian governments will face changes to revenue sources as coal and gas exports decline, and new industries emerge. 

We’re already making progress in Australia, with existing policies and efforts projected to cut climate pollution by almost 43% on 2005 levels by 2030 – a 13 percentage point improvement from 2021 projections. Already, a 51% climate pollution cut is projected by 2035 just by implementing current policies.

To protect Australians from the consequences of the climate crisis, Australia can also consider tackling its global carbon footprint by:

• Developing clean industries that contribute to global pollution reduction. For example, by developing green metals, cathode and battery manufacturing, sustainable shipping and aviation fuels;
• Supporting developing countries in their transition through climate finance or other mechanisms; and 
• Reducing our exported climate pollution, particularly by not approving new fossil fuel projects.

In recent years, climate solutions have been delivered at a speed and scale that has surpassed expectations. The last decade has seen incredible progress, with the cost of many climate solutions reducing dramatically. The key lesson here is our ambitions should not be constrained by what we currently consider to be the limit of our clean energy potential. Just as progress in renewable electricity outstripped all expectations over the last decade, progress in industrial decarbonisation and harder-to-abate sectors can far exceed our current projections over the next. 

By aiming high we give ourselves the best opportunity at fulfilling our true potential. The climate crisis demands that we do everything we can, everywhere we can, as fast as we can.

Climate consequences if the world fails to set strong targets

As our climate has warmed, Australia has been hit hard. Where long-term global warming is currently about 1.3°C above pre-industrial levels, Australia has warmed by an average of around 1.51°C since national records began in 1910.

This increase in temperature is fuelling more frequent and intense extreme weather events, including extreme heat, heavy rainfall, coastal inundation, dangerous bushfire weather and drought. Many communities have now experienced back-to-back disasters that would have previously been considered a 1-in-50 or 1-in-100 year weather event. 

Climate-driven extreme weather events in Australia are already becoming more frequent and intense, with devastating impacts. 

The future scale and severity of the climate crisis will depend on how quickly and deeply we slash global climate pollution. Each fraction of a degree of global heating is associated with more catastrophic impacts to communities and ecosystems.

For more information see our Stronger Target, Safer Future: Why Australia’s 2035 Climate Target Matters report.

Climate Council has launched a petition calling on the Australian Government to set the strongest possible 2035 climate target – and take urgent action to meet it!

The post Why Australia needs to set a strong climate target this year appeared first on Climate Council.

What began as a group of 27 Pacific Island law students is now a turning point that strengthens a struggling multilateral system for climate action. The Vanuatu government was also a driving force behind this first ever legal opinion on climate change. With these proceedings, we are seeing a familiar storyline play out in the international arena, one that the Pacific is all too familiar with – that if we want to survive the climate crisis, it is up to us to chart the path of least destruction. Whether or not the world follows our lead has differed over history.

Ten years ago, those of us present in Paris cried tears of resolve and pride when Republic of the Marshall Islands Foreign Minister, Tony De Brum, masterfully led the High Ambition Coalition to negotiate and secure what we now know as the Paris Agreement. The world then followed suit with their national emissions targets, some worthy of the phrase “climate action”, and some not. In 2022, Tuvalu became the first country to call for a Fossil Fuel Non Proliferation Treaty, with 135 cities and subnational governments today backing that same call. Over the years, Pacific Island states have attempted to set high bars for climate ambition and prayed that those with the power to impact global emissions saw our survival as worth fighting for.

Today, this call-and-response is again at play for the Pacific. When we became aware of Australia’s intentions to host COP31 as an Australia-Pacific COP, we saw the opportunity to chart a path encouraging Australia’s climate leadership. But it has been no easy feat. When the Australian government signalled its addiction to gas expansion in Canberra last May, a group of Pacific Islanders took to parliament lawns calling for a renewable energy transition instead – both domestically and within the Pacific region. Climate Minister Chris Bowen’s recent visit to the Pacific indicated that Australia’s direction, at least in terms of a Pacific energy transition, could be looking positive. On this four-nation tour, Australia committed $16.4 million to upgrade Palau’s electricity network and shift to renewable energy. This includes the 15MW Palau Solar Farm, one of the Pacific’s largest solar power projects. However, President Surangel Whipps Jr of Palau has made it clear that a “Pacific COP” would require more than renewable energy investments. It would call on Australia to address its gas addiction and position as one of the top-three fossil fuel exporters in the world.

The issue of Australia’s coal and gas exports is the stain on Australia’s potential climate legacy. Even as Australia courts Pacific leaders in their bid for COP31, Environment Minister Murray Watt recently approved the extension of the Woodside’s North West Shelf gas plant, one of the world’s biggest fossil gas projects, prolonging its life from 2030 to 2070. The extension is expected to be responsible for about 87.9m tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent every year in the decades ahead. Acts of hypocrisy like this make it increasingly difficult to trust Australia as a partner to Pacific peoples, as continued fossil fuel exports exacerbate climate disasters across our islands.

So as we skate dangerously close to the 1.5 degree target set in Paris, we cannot allow the next five years to be where we lose our fight against the climate crisis. Australia’s current emissions reduction target of 43% by 2030 is woefully short of what’s required to keep global heating below 1.5 degrees, and predictions of its revised emissions target due this year are still unclear. As a potential COP host within this critical timeframe, Australia has the opportunity and responsibility to up its climate game significantly – but only by listening to Pacific co-hosts and following our lead.

We have dreams and pathways for a Pacific free from fossil fuels and climate catastrophe, and we are actively trying to secure the resources and relationships to make that a reality. We have employed everything at our disposal to realise this dream, from diplomacy to litigation to grassroots activism. It is clear that both history and international law are on our side. What remains to be seen is how Australia responds to the role they’ve been cast in the story of our survival.

Author: Fenton Lutunatabua, 350.org Deputy Head of Regions and founder of the Pacific Climate Warriors.

Photo: ABC News

The post An international court ruling, proof that the world can follow the Pacific’s lead on climate action appeared first on Climate Council.

Climate Council Preliminary Analysis, “Obligations of the States in Respect of Climate Council”.

The advice shows:

1. Countries have very strong obligations under international law to cut climate pollution and prevent significant harm to the global climate that sustains human life. 

The Court refers both to climate treaties and other bodies of international law.

2. Australia is obligated to set strong, science aligned climate targets.

The Court makes clear that it “considers the 1.5°C threshold to be the parties’ agreed primary temperature goal for limiting the global average temperature increase under the Paris Agreement.” It states that countries “Nationally Determined Contribution” (NDC),  which includes the 2035 climate target, must be in line with the Paris Agreement goal to limit global temperature increase to 1.5°C. The advice further emphasises that each country must “do its utmost to ensure that the NDCs it puts forward represent its highest possible ambition in order to realize the objectives of the [Paris] Agreement.” 

Yesterday, the Climate Council released the latest scientific data showing that this goal is almost out of reach for Australia due to a decade of delayed action (2013-2022). That research shows net zero by 2035 is the only climate target available to Australia with a strong chance of contributing to holding global warming below 2°C.  However, the Court makes clear that to be aligned with Paris obligations a country’s actions should be consistent with holding warming to 1.5°C. Therefore Australia may be obligated to contribute to global efforts to slash climate pollution as well as take steps at home – for instance building new industries (e.g. green iron) and preventing new fossil fuel projects.

The Federal Government has accelerated climate action in the last three years, including reaching 43% renewable power in Australia’s main grid. The action must now be strengthened to meet our international obligations.

The Australian Government is expected to make its decision on Australia’s 2035 climate target in the coming months. The Court’s advice makes clear that a target should be as strong as possible and accompanied by plans and policies to implement that target. It can further be argued that, to comply with international law, this judgement requires Australia to both set a strong national target and take action on exported emissions to help hold global heating to 1.5°C.

3. On-going production, consumption and granting of licenses and subsidies for fossil fuels could constitute wrongful acts under international law. Wrongful acts may trigger obligations to compensate other countries suffering from climate harm. 

The Court states that: “What constitutes a wrongful act is not the emissions in and of themselves, but actions or omissions causing significant harm to the climate system in breach of a state’s international obligations.”

The Federal Government has argued that Australia is not responsible for the emissions from Australia’s vast exports of coal and gas. The Court disagrees. Australia is one of the largest exporters of fossil fuels, therefore there is a strong case that ongoing support and expansion of Australia’s export industry constitutes “significant harm to the climate system”.

The Court finds that individual countries can still be found responsible, even if it is hard to identify a specific share of harm they have caused. The Court notes that it is “scientifically possible to determine each State’s total contribution to global emissions, taking into account both historical and current emissions.” 

Given Australia has consistently been one of the highest per capita polluters in the world and one of the world’s most prolific fossil fuel exporters, it can also be argued that Australia’s relative share of harm is significant. This will also likely be argued in respect to other countries that are major polluters and fossil fuel exporters.

The Court states that wrongful acts – which could include breaching treaty obligations or failing to regulate climate pollution – under international law could trigger repatriation obligations, including obligations to compensate other countries harmed by climate disasters. 

The Court also finds an obligation for countries to limit climate pollution from private actors in its jurisdiction. This appears to be a broad definition that would apply to fossil fuels production for international or domestic use.

The Court’s advice gives the Australian government reason to consider the totality of Australia’s contribution to climate harm, including our exported climate pollution. In particular, the Court’s decision is pertinent to the Federal Government’s review of Australia’s national environment laws. Currently, when the Federal Environment Minister considers whether to approve new fossil fuel projects there is no provision in the act to consider the climate pollution from that project. Given the Court’s very strong findings, it will be difficult for the Australian government to argue that it has the “highest possible ambition in order to realize the objectives of the [Paris] Agreement”, if it does not reform the environment laws and/or take other substantive measures to prevent the expansion of Australia’s fossil fuel industry.

The post Implications of the International Court of Justice decision for Australia appeared first on Climate Council.

Read the original article. Written by Climate Councillor, Professor David Karoly and Associate Professor Andrew King.

The year 2024 was the world’s warmest on record globally, and the first calendar year in which global temperatures exceeded 1.5°C above its pre-industrial levels.

The official declaration was made on Friday by the Copernicus Climate Change Service, the European Union’s Earth observation program. It comes as wildfires continue to tear through Los Angeles, California – a disaster scientists say was made worse by climate change.

This record-breaking global heat is primarily driven by humanity’s ongoing greenhouse gas emissions, caused by the burning of fossil fuels. The warming won’t stop until we reach net-zero emissions.

Clearly, the need for humanity to rapidly reduce its greenhouse gas emissions has never been more urgent.

An exceptional year

The Copernicus findings are consistent with other leading global temperature datasets indicating 2024 was the hottest year since records began in 1850.

The global average temperature in 2024 was about 1.6°C above the average temperatures in the late-19th century (which is used to represent pre-industrial levels).

On July 22 last year, the daily global average temperature reached 17.16°C. This was a new record high.

Copernicus also found that each year in the last decade was one of the ten warmest on record. According to Copernicus director Carlo Buontempo:

We are now teetering on the edge of passing the 1.5ºC level defined in the Paris Agreement and the average of the last two years is already above this level.

These high global temperatures, coupled with record global atmospheric water vapour levels in 2024, meant unprecedented heatwaves and heavy rainfall events, causing misery for millions of people.

How scientists take Earth’s temperature

Estimating the global average surface temperature is no mean feat. The methods vary between organisations, but the overall picture is the same: 2024 was the world’s hottest year on record.

The high global average temperature of 2024 wouldn’t have been possible without humanity’s greenhouse gas emissions. The El Niño climate driver also played a role in the first part of the year. It warmed Earth’s surface – particularly over a large swathe of the central and eastern Pacific – and increased global average surface temperature by up to 0.2°C.

What about Australia?

Copernicus found 2024 was the warmest year for all continents except Antarctica and Australasia.

But Australia is feeling the shift into a hotter, less hospitable climate, too. Last year was Australia’s second-hottest year on record, according to a declaration last week by the Bureau of Meteorology.

The hottest was 2019, when a blisteringly hot and dry spring led to the widespread bushfires of the Black Summer. Unlike 2019, Australia had a wetter than normal year in 2024.

However, 2024 was the hottest year on record for the southwest of Australia and parts of the centre and east of the continent.

Apart from April, Australia saw unusual warmth through all of 2024. August was the standout month for record-breaking heat.

In general, temperature records are broken more easily at the global scale than in individual regions. That’s because weather is more variable at the local level than on a global average. A period of, say, very cold weather in one part of a continent can bring down annual average temperatures there, preventing records from being broken.

That’s why Australia’s annual average temperatures have reached record highs three times since 2000 – in 2005, 2013 and 2019 – whereas the global average temperature set six new records in that period.

Does this mean the Paris Agreement has failed?

The global Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. So, if 2024 was about 1.6°C above pre-industrial levels, you might think the world has failed to meet this goal. But it hasn’t, yet.

The success of the Paris Agreement will be measured against longer periods than temperatures over a year. That eliminates natural climate variability and factors such as El Niño and La Niña, to build a clearer picture of climate change.

However, the statistics for 2024 are certainly a bad sign. It shows humanity has its work cut out to keep global warming well below 2°C, let alone 1.5°C.

More heat guaranteed

There’s one very important thing to understand about climate change: the amount of greenhouse gases that humans emit over time is roughly proportional to the increase in global temperatures over that same period.

This near-linear relationship means every tonne of greenhouse gas emissions from human activity causes about the same amount of global warming. So, the faster we decarbonise the global economy, the sooner we can halt global warming and reduce its harms.

This year is unlikely to be quite as hot as 2024 because the El Niño has passed. But unfortunately, Earth will continue to experience record hot global temperatures for at least the next few decades.

This is all the more reason for humanity to move faster in decarbonising our society and economy. It’s not too late to shift the long-term trajectory of Earth’s climate.

The post As Los Angeles combusts, 2024 is declared Earth’s hottest on record appeared first on Climate Council.

Forests act as carbon sinks that draw carbon dioxide from our atmosphere and stabilise our climate. How does that work and what does it mean for our warming climate? Let’s find out. 

Deforestation and the carbon cycle

Forests store large amounts of carbon. Trees and other plants absorb carbon dioxide from the atmosphere as they grow. This is converted into carbon and stored in the plant’s branches, leaves, trunks, roots and in the soil.

When forests are cleared or burnt, stored carbon is released into the atmosphere, mainly as carbon dioxide. The scale of this release of carbon is enormous. In 2023, global loss of tropical forests totalled 3.7 million hectares, equivalent to around ten soccer fields of forest lost every minute. This forest loss produced roughly six percent of estimated global carbon dioxide emissions in 2023.

Carbon stored in forests is part of an active, relatively quick cycle that sees carbon released back into the atmosphere when living things (including trees) die and decay.

On the other hand, carbon stored underground in the form of fossil fuels such as coal, oil and gas, is much more stable and part of a much slower carbon cycle. Without the influence of humans burning these fossil fuels for energy, this carbon is unlikely to reach the atmosphere. However, when fossil fuels are burned, carbon from dead and decayed plants, animals and phytoplankton that lived hundreds of millions of years ago is released into the atmosphere in the form of heat-trapping carbon dioxide.

Deforestation and climate change

Burning fossil fuels, combined with the destruction of carbon sinks, has caused too much carbon dioxide to build up in the atmosphere – more than can be absorbed from existing carbon sinks such as forests. The build-up of carbon dioxide to the highest level in human history is driving global warming, as it traps heat in the lower atmosphere. 

Carbon offsets, including planting trees, aren’t the answer 

A carbon offset is a claimed reduction in climate pollution, usually achieved by planting trees and restoring land, to account for an equivalent amount of pollution that occurs elsewhere. Companies use carbon offsets to ‘even out’ their carbon pollution.

As climate change creates more frequent and intense fires, trees originally planted to offset carbon are more likely to get burnt. This means carbon offsets are fragile and unreliable in the face of a changing and unpredictable climate.

The good news is, we don’t need to rely on carbon offsets to cut climate pollution. Proven technologies like solar and wind can electrify our lives, slash climate pollution this decade and ensure a safer future for our kids.

Where do we go from here?

Protecting natural ecosystems and sustainably managing and re-establishing forests are important ways to cut climate pollution and slow down temperature rise in the short term by drawing down carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and avoiding its release. At the same time, we must slash climate pollution from coal, oil and gas further and faster . If we do only the former and not the latter, we risk transforming more and more of our carbon sinks into carbon sources as climate change progresses.

GET THE FACTS

Subscribe to the Climate Council today to stay in-the-know on the latest climate news, research and ways you can take action to cut climate pollution.

For information on why we collect and how we will use or disclose the personal information you have provided in this email subscription form, please see our Email Subscription Form Collection Notice here. Our Privacy Policy is also available here.

The post Deforestation and Climate Change appeared first on Climate Council.

Read the original article. Written by Professor Lesley Hughes

One of the most significant achievements of the 26th United Nations climate conference in Glasgow (COP26) three years ago was the launch of the Global Methane Pledge. The goal is to reduce global methane emissions at least 30% by 2030.

Methane (CH₄) is the second most significant climate pollutant after carbon dioxide (CO₂). In the words of one of the architects of the pledge, then US Special Presidential Envoy for Climate, John Kerry, “tackling methane is the fastest, most effective way to reduce near-term warming and keep 1.5°C within reach”.

Australia signed up to the methane pledge in October 2022. It was a good start, but a promise is not a plan. To date, Australia has no official methane reduction targets, nor an agreed strategy to deal with this dangerous pollutant.

The Climate Council’s report, released today, sets out actions Australia can take right now to cut methane emissions. We need to get on with it.

Why should we care about methane?

Methane in the atmosphere is rising at a record rate: up about 260% since preindustrial times to a high not seen for at least 800,000 years.

Research just released shows if we don’t act, the problem will only worsen. It suggests increases in atmospheric methane are outpacing projected growth rates – threatening the global goal of reaching net-zero emissions by 2050.

The gas is likely responsible for at least 25 to 30% of warming Earth has experienced since the Industrial Revolution.

Methane is a “live fast, die young” gas, persisting in the atmosphere for a relatively short amount of time. But while it’s there, it punches above its weight in warming. Over 20 years, methane is about 85 times more effective at trapping heat than the equivalent amount of carbon dioxide.

After 100 years, it’s still about 28 times more effective at trapping heat.

This means methane has an outsized impact on warming in the short term, turbocharging unnatural disasters such as floods, bushfires and heatwaves.

Where does methane come from?

Roughly half of global methane pollution comes from human activities. The rest comes from natural sources such as wetlands and soils.

Australia produces more than its fair share of methane because we have such large fossil fuel and agriculture industries. We are the world’s 12th largest methane polluter, producing four to five times as much methane as would be expected based on population alone.

In the year to December 2023, Australia produced nearly four million tonnes of methane. The main sources from human activity were agriculture (52%), fossil fuel mining (25%) and waste (11%). The good news is there are plenty of ways to reduce emissions in each sector that we can and should implement right now.

Agriculture and fossil fuels produce most of Australia’s methane pollution. The Climate Council, using data from the National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Quarterly Update: December 2023 (DCCEEW, 2024).

What can we do about it?

The largest source of methane emissions in agriculture is the burps of ruminant animals – mainly cows and sheep.

Promising research suggests each animal’s methane production can be cut by as much as 90% using daily feed supplements. These include supplements from the red seaweed Asparagopsis, and the chemical marketed as 3-NOP.

Other approaches to reducing methane emissions from animals also show promise. They include vaccines that target methane-producing microbes in their guts, methane-reducing pasture species, and selective breeding.

These solutions should be scaled up and farmers encouraged to use them – for instance, by being eligible for carbon credits under the Emissions Reduction Fund.

Providing consumers with point-of-sale information about the climate impacts of their food choices could also serve to reduce the nation’s methane emissions. And the market can be encouraged to develop clear regulatory pathways for securing approval of animal-free protein and other lower-impact foods.

More than 90% of our food waste ends up in landfill where it produces methane when it rots. Composting is much better for the environment. Investing in organic collection services for food and garden waste, and tightening regulations to capture gas at landfill sites, can address much methane pollution from the waste sector.

We can’t control what we don’t measure. Currently, methane emissions are largely reported to the Clean Energy Regulator using indirect and outdated methods. The International Energy Agency estimates Australia could be under-reporting methane emissions from the coal and gas sector by up to 60%.

Fortunately, new global satellite capacity and, in Australia, the Open Methane visualisation tool, mean we can measure methane at its source far more accurately than before.

The federal government should make all coal and gas corporations directly measure and report their methane emissions from existing mines, in line with international best practice.

Every coal mine and gas plant produces methane during mining and processing. While we work towards phasing out fossil fuel mining, a few practical actions can reduce methane pollution:

• require underground coal mines to capture and destroy the methane vented into the atmosphere
• ban all non-emergency flaring and venting of gas
• require all gas mining companies to address leaky infrastructure
• ensure mining companies seal inactive mines.

Time for action

Without concerted action, global methane pollution from human activities is expected to rise 15% this decade. On the other hand, meeting the commitments of the Global Methane Pledge can reduce warming in the next few decades.

If the goals of the pledge are met, we could shave about 0.25°C off the global average temperature by mid-century, and more than 0.5°C by 2100.

The federal government should establish a national methane reduction target and a dedicated action plan. This should be part of our updated national emissions reduction target, due to be set in 2025.

We can’t take our foot off the pedal in cutting carbon dioxide. But at the same time, in the words of United Nations head Antonio Guterres, we have to do “everything, everywhere, all at once”.

The post Methane is turbocharging unnatural disasters – Australia must get serious about reducing emissions appeared first on Climate Council.

The letter, signed by 14 international and Australian marine and climate scientists – including IPCC authors – draws attention to the most severe bleaching event in recorded history currently unfolding on the Great Barrier Reef.

The scientists have rallied to make clear to the Prime Minister the severity of reef bleaching and have urged him to ensure Australia’s new, improved, national nature protection laws are passed before the end of this term of government.

To:  The Hon Anthony Albanese MP

       Prime Minister

CC: The Hon Tanya Plibersek MP, Minister for the Environment and Water

Dear Prime Minister,

Australia’s Great Barrier Reef is in grave danger due to repeated severe bleaching events driven by climate pollution, with not enough time to recover in the gaps between events.

This is the worst heat stress event for the Great Barrier Reef on record, which is undergoing widespread and severe bleaching as a result. 

This is the fifth mass bleaching event in nine years. Previous mass bleaching events on the Great Barrier Reef occurred in 1998, 2002, 2016, 2017, 2020, and 2022. All were due to unprecedented heat stress caused by climate change. 

Since the last mass bleaching in 2022, at least five coal and gas projects have been approved by the Labor Government under Australia’s outdated national environment law: the EPBC Act.

Unfortunately, instead of the progress we were promised when the overhaul of this Act was announced, we now have no clear timeline of when this will occur. 

Australia’s new national nature protection laws must be delivered before the end of this term. And they must include a clear requirement to assess whether projects will cause more climate harm for nature as part of the assessment process. Given the damage climate change does to nature, it would be reckless to do otherwise.

There is strong scientific, community and parliamentary support for the Albanese government to thoroughly embed climate change considerations into the new laws.

Australia is the world’s third largest fossil fuel exporter. Climate change is global, so no matter where in the world Australia’s coal and gas exports are burnt, they damage nature here at home, which is precisely why our nature laws must consider potential climate impacts, including direct and downstream pollution.

Australians understand the Great Barrier Reef is irreplaceable and want to protect it so all generations can experience its wonder and beauty. 

We urge the government to heed the science, listen to the Australian community and commit to working with the Parliament to close the climate gap in our national nature laws.

Signed,

• Professor Ove Hoegh Goldberg, Professor of Marine Science at the University of Queensland
• Professor Gretta Pecl, Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania
• Professor Lesley Hughes, Professor Lesley Hughes is a Distinguished Professor of Biology and former Pro Vice-Chancellor Macquarie University
• Professor Jodie Rummer, Professor of Marine Biology, James Cook University
• Professor Emeritus David Karoly, University of Melbourne, (Climate Scientist) 
• Dr Selina Ward, Honorary Senior Research Fellow, School of the Environment, University of Queensland
• Dr Stuart Kininmonth, Heron Island Research Station Manager, Associate Professor of Marine Studies, University of the South Pacific
• Dr Tero Mustonen, Lead Author for the 6th IPCC Assessment
• Dr Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Co-Chair, Working Group I, IPCC
• Dr Simon Bradshaw, Director of Research, the Climate Council
• Dr Ben Fitzpatrick Director, Oceanwise Australia; Adjunct Research Fellow, UWA Oceans Institute
• Dr Maya Srinivasan, Centre for Tropical Water & Aquatic System Research (TropWATER) James Cook University
• Dr Yolanda Waters, Research Fellow, University of Queensland and founder of Divers for Climate Action
• Dr Dean Miller, CEO Great Barrier Reef Legacy and Forever Reef Project

Header image Credit: Harriet Spark

The post Letter to the Federal Government to close the climate gap on our nature laws appeared first on Climate Council.

The coral bleaching event that is currently unfolding on the Great Barrier Reef is a lot to process. Officially declared a mass bleaching event by the Marine Park Authority in early March, it is the 5th event since 2016 and will likely have flow-on effects for the months to come. In some parts of the Reef, above average water temperatures have been accumulating for over 11-weeks causing many coral species to pale, fluoresce and bleach – all signs of severe heat stress. Some areas are already showing signs of mortality. If it doesn’t cool down soon, many more will follow.

But this apocalyptic story you’ve heard before – the potential demise of the only living structure you can see from space.
The story you haven’t heard is ours.

Right now, thousands of divers, marine guides, and tourism operators are in the water every day witnessing first-hand what is happening. And what it’s like on the ground is far more complex than anything you’ll hear online.

For us, this bleaching event is not just a moment in the media, this is our lives. We’ve been anticipating it and watching it slowly develop for weeks. We’ve been having difficult conversations with visitors. This is not our first rodeo. Every time summer comes round, we all cross our fingers and pray that the water doesn’t stay too hot for too long. Sometimes we get lucky, and sometimes we don’t. Different parts of the Reef are affected differently.

As the eyes and ears in the water, we can tell you exactly what is going on, where and when. Which means we can also tell you just how much wonder and beauty there is to save, an important piece of the puzzle that never makes headlines.

The bleaching event doesn’t just affect the reef, it affects the people and communities that depend on it. Which means how it’s talked about affects us too. The public response to coral bleaching is often, like our response to most climate impacts, reactive. When the news breaks it’s either used to paint a morbid picture of the Great Barrier Reef, or it’s doused in head-in-the-sand optimism that everything will be okay. But the reality is there is an incredibly beautiful, sad and complex story in between. The trick is learning how to tell it.

A few years ago, I left the tourism industry and have since been on an academic quest to figure out how to tell the story of the Great Barrier Reef in a way that makes a difference. I have surveyed and interviewed thousands of visitors, guides, tourism operators and people across Australia to understand the most effective messages to motivate widespread action on climate change.

I have learned that saying the Reef is “dying” makes those in tourism fear for their jobs and makes Australians feel like they are unable to help. I have learned that saying the Reef is resilient can undermine the urgency for action, and that there is confusion among the public about whether it is alive or not. What I have really learned is that there is no perfect message, but there are a few key ingredients –
magic, grief, and a collective call to action. People need to feel there is something worth saving and that together we can – a message we can vouch for.

Many tourism operators are already working hard to nurture their sites and the industry is making plans for decarbonisation. But it might mean little if governments and big industries don’t do more to transition away from fossil fuels and give our Reef the chance to recover. The Reef is literally giving us glowing warning signs – it’s time to put an end to this polluting path we are on. And we can all do more to help.
For the over 64,000 people who work on the Reef, the Reef is not just a source of income, it’s everything. It’s our playground, our community, our culture, and our home. We love the Reef, and each time it bleaches we feel it in our bones.

So yes, use this bleaching event as a reminder that the situation is urgent. Use it to fight for more ambitious climate policies. That means saying ‘no’ to new fossil fuel projects and ‘yes’ to higher emission reduction targets. But don’t forget about the people who live and breathe the Reef every day. We are part of the story too 

Yolanda Waters, Founder – Divers for Climate
Yolanda is a dive instructor turned marine social scientist at the University of Queensland and Founder of community-led initiative Divers for Climate. She has completed a PhD in climate change communication which explores the diverse connections between people and iconic places like the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), and the extent to which the GBR and GBR tourism can help strengthen public engagement with climate change. Yolanda has surveyed and interviewed thousands of Australians, including tourism operators and visitors across the Great Barrier Reef, about their perceptions of climate threats and actions, discovering that the GBR is a powerful tool to motivate complex conversations around climate action. Divers for Climate and the Undertow Media are currently producing a film that captures stories across the Australian dive community who are currently witnessing the impacts of climate change firsthand, including the coral bleaching event currently unfolding on the Great Barrier Reef.

The post The story you’re not being told about the latest bleaching event appeared first on Climate Council.

We are up on a northern part of the Great Barrier Reef for the launch of Code Blue – the Climate Council’s first comprehensive report on climate change and our oceans.

Today was a stark reminder of just how much hangs in the balance – what we are losing, but what we still can and must fight to save. 

We saw healthy patches of reef, some of which have been lovingly tended by marine scientists and assisted in their recovery. But we also saw vast tracts that can only be described as coral boneyards – areas that have never recovered from successive marine heatwaves.

The truth is that our Great Barrier Reef, and indeed our ocean at large, is in very serious trouble. As we head into another El Niño summer, there are well-founded fears of another devastating mass bleaching event.

Read Code Blue: Our Oceans in crisis report

Photographer: Tahn Miller, with divers Jodie Rummer and Simon Bradshaw.

More than half a billion people worldwide depend on coral reefs for their food, livelihoods, and the protection of their coastlines. Tragically, the damage to tropical coral reefs is but one aspect of a much larger crisis affecting our oceans. A crisis brought on by climate change, driven by the burning of coal, oil and gas.

The vast majority – around 93% – of the extra heat we have trapped by burning fossil fuels has ended up in the ocean. It’s an astonishing amount of energy – equivalent to detonating five Hiroshima atomic bombs every second, or enough energy to boil Sydney Harbour every eight minutes. 

This has consequences. More frequent and severe heat waves are pushing coral reefs and other critical marine ecosystems to the brink. Ice sheets are melting at an accelerating rate, driving up sea levels and displacing coastal communities. The ocean circulations and currents that distribute heat, rainfall and nutrients around the planet are slowing and may even be headed for collapse.

The potential impacts of these abrupt changes are truly profound. We are talking about the unravelling of our very life support system. 

All life depends on the water cycle that starts in the ocean. The ocean and the atmosphere form a coupled system that shapes the Earth’s climate, creating the stable conditions that have enabled advanced human societies to develop. Humans also need the ocean in other fundamental ways: every second breath we take comes from oxygen produced by the ocean. Even if we live thousands of miles inland, our weather is shaped by what is happening in our oceans.

The ocean’s enormous capacity to absorb heat may have masked the true extent of the damage. But today these changes are coming back to bite us. 2023 is almost certain to register as the Earth’s warmest year on record, and Australia faces yet another climate reckoning with a devastatingly early start to our fire season, and warnings of worse to come.

Put simply, the global dance between the ocean and the atmosphere underpins life as we know it.

The latest observations suggest we are perilously close to dangerous tipping points for our ocean that could trigger millennia of irreversible sea level rise and the collapse of the ocean circulations and marine ecosystems upon which we depend for our very survival.

We ignore these warnings at our peril. There is only one solution to our climate and ocean crises, and that is to leave our fossil fuels in the ground and get our emissions plummeting. Fast. Australia must aim to reduce its emissions by 75% below 2005 level by 2030, and reach net zero by 2035. And we must urgently update our outdated national environment law so that it takes account of the dangers of climate change and puts a halt to the reckless expansion of our fossil fuel industries.

In hospital emergency rooms, a code blue is called when a life-threatening event is underway. We are calling a code blue for our oceans today, because the crisis in our oceans threatens all life as we know it – including our own.

The post The crisis in our oceans threatens all life as we know it – including our own appeared first on Climate Council.