Climate pollution from burning coal, oil and gas is turbocharging Australia’s bushfire risk. Climate change is making hot days hotter, droughts more severe and heatwaves longer and more frequent – and far more dangerous bushfire weather across the country. 

Fire seasons across large parts of Australia are now longer, more volatile and increasingly overlapping. This means there are fewer and shrinking windows in which to prepare for fires, by doing things like hazard reduction burning. Also, fires are harder to control once they take off.

How is climate change influencing bushfires?

A fire needs to be started (ignition), it needs something to burn (fuel), and it needs conditions that are conducive to its spread (i.e dry, windy weather). Climate change, primarily driven by the burning of fossil fuels – coal, oil and gas – can affect all of these factors in both straightforward and more complex ways.

Australia, on average, has warmed by 1.51°C ± 0.23 °C since national records began in 1910, with most warming occurring since 1950. Nine of Australia’s top 10 warmest years on record have occurred since 2005. At the same time, a decline in cool season rainfall in southeast Australia is contributing to an increased likelihood of more dangerous bushfires. Extreme fire weather has increased over the p last 30 years in south and east Australia. The most extreme 10% of fire weather days has increased in recent decades across many regions of Australia, especially in southern and eastern Australia.

Hot days and heatwaves

The most direct link between bushfires and climate change comes from the long-term trend towards a hotter climate. Climate change is now making hot days hotter, and heatwaves longer and more frequent.

In Australia, the annual number of hot days (above 35°C) and very hot days (above 40°C) has also increased strongly over most areas since 1950. Heatwaves are also lasting longer, reaching higher maximum temperatures and occurring more frequently over many regions of Australia.

Extreme heat conditions preceded the Black Saturday bushfire in 2009  – Australia’s most deadly bushfire. In late January, Victoria experienced one of its most severe heatwaves, with Melbourne exceeding 43°C for three consecutive days; the first time on record. The extreme heat dried out flammable vegetation across the state, setting the stage for catastrophic fire conditions. When the Black Saturday fires took off on the 7th of February, temperatures climbed into the mid-40s and Melbourne had its hottest day on record at the time.

Low Rainfall

Declining cool season rainfall has a significant impact on increasing bushfire risk. Since the mid-1990s, southeast Australia has experienced a 15% decline in late autumn and early winter rainfall and a 25% decline in average rainfall in April and May. Climate change is influencing this drying trend.

In the lead-up to January 2003, the ACT endured one of the worst droughts in recorded history. Rainfall was at record lows — just 40mm compared with an average of 150mm. On 18 January Canberra experienced the most destructive bushfires in its history.

From 2017 to 2019 southeast Australia experienced its driest three-year period on record. The Tinderbox Drought was severe and pushed rural towns to the brink of running dry. It set the stage for the bone dry conditions that contributed to the Black Summer bushfires of 2019/2020, which burned more than 24 million hectares of land and led to the deaths of 33 people and almost 450 due to smoke inhalation.

Lengthening seasons

Since the 1970s, there has been an increase in extreme fire weather and a lengthening of the fire season across large parts of Australia, particularly in southern and eastern regions, due to increases in extreme hot days and drying.

The lengthening fire season means that opportunities for fuel reduction burning are decreasing, and it is putting higher demand on our firefighting services. 

Strong winds

Many of Australia’s most destructive bushfires have been fanned by strong winds that have driven explosive fire spread. Strong winds were a factor in the spread of the destructive Cudlee Creek and Gospers Mountain fires during the 2019/20 Black Summer. 

More recent fires on Tasmania’s east coast in late 2025 that claimed 19 homes at Dolphin Sands were also driven by strong gusty winds, and occurred despite recent wet weather. Strong winds can also limit the effectiveness of aerial firefighting. Strong gusty winds can send the water or fire retardant dropped from aircraft far from the fire ground. In some instances winds can be so strong that it is unsafe to fly, limiting firefighting efforts to an on-the-ground response.

More intense fires

Fires are now so intense they create their own wild thunderstorms, hurricane strength winds and lightning. Pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) events occur when bushfires couple with the upper atmosphere, generating explosive thunderstorms that can include strong downdrafts, lightning and even black hail. 

These events are more likely to occur when atmospheric instability is high, combined with dangerous near-surface conditions (e.g. low humidity, strong winds and high temperatures). They happen when large fires generate intense heat and convection columns that reach into the stratosphere, forming cumulonimbus (storm) clouds, but with very little moisture and therefore generating little, if any, rain.

A pyroCb can cause already intense fires to expand and behave explosively, with storm force winds coming from different directions, lightning that causes new fires up to 100km away, and downdrafts that can damage buildings, fire trucks, and push down trees.

From 1979 to 2016 south-eastern Australia has experienced an increase in conditions conducive to the formation of fire-generated thunderstorms. Climate change will continue to amplify these conditions and could lead to more fire-generated extreme weather over longer fire seasons.

Learn more in our report, When Cities Burn: Could the LA fires happen here?.

What is expected in the future?

Unfortunately, fire weather across Australia will get worse. Climate change is driving hotter temperatures alongside drier conditions across southern Australia – increasing the risk of bushfires. Southern and eastern parts of the country will see more days of dangerous fire weather, longer fire seasons and the potential for more megafires.

The latest research on the fire risks Australians face

The fires that ripped through the neighbourhoods of Los Angeles in the United States, in the middle of winter, shocked the world. They left many people asking: could this happen here in Australia? 

Our latest Climate Council and Emergency Leaders for Climate Action report, When Cities Burn: Could the LA fires happen here?, finds: 

1. Climate pollution from the burning of coal, oil and gas shaped the dangerous and extreme weather conditions that drove these fires.

Record dryness; non-arrival of the typical annual wet season; and hurricane-like winds gusting up to 160 kmh.

2. The outskirts of many Australian cities share the dangerous characteristics that made the LA fires so destructive

Sydney, Melbourne, Canberra, Adelaide, Perth and Hobart are all vulnerable.

Many of our own bushfires have exhibited the same, unstoppable behaviour: During Black Saturday 2009 in Victoria, the fire danger index exceeded 200 (with 100 the upper limit of recognised fire danger rating up until 2009).

Fire-generated thunderstorms, or pyroconvective events, were relatively rare with 60 such events recorded in Australia in the 40 years up to 2018. During Black Summer, at least 45 fire-generated thunderstorms were recorded.

While we associate our most destructive fires with extreme heat, bushfires only need a combination of dryness and strong wind to grow and spread rapidly. 

3. Just like in LA, more people than ever are living in harm’s way on the fast-growing urban fringes of Australian cities

There has been a 65.5% average jump since 2001 across Melbourne, Perth, Sydney, Hobart, Canberra, Brisbane and Adelaide with 6.9 million people are now living on the outskirts of these cities.

Had the Black Summer bushfires directly impacted the edges of our cities or major regional centres, such as Sydney, Newcastle, Wollongong, the NSW Central Coast, the Dandenong ranges, the Adelaide Hills, the Perth Hills or Hobart, then property losses on the scale of LA could have occurred.

Up to 90% of Australian homes in high-risk fire zones were also built before modern bushfire standards existed — making ignition due to ember attack and house-to-house fire spread far more likely.

4. This is costing all of us – today.

Since 2020, insurance premiums have increased by 78% to 138% for homes in bushfire-prone Local Government Areas within Sydney, Melbourne and Perth. Even those who don’t live in the path of fires or floods, are paying for more insurance today, because climate-fuelled weather everywhere means higher insurance for everyone.

What can be done?

As a priority, all governments must:

• Cut climate pollution from coal, oil and gas more swiftly and deeply if we’re to avoid even worse.
• Invest heavily in disaster preparation and community resilience at all levels of government so we’re as prepared as possible for the worsening fire risks we already face.
• As a priority, increase emergency service and land management capacity at the urban fringe of our cities and major regional centres so growing populations are better protected for what’s to come.

The post The facts about bushfires and climate change appeared first on Climate Council.

Under the Paris Agreement, countries are required to submit increasingly strong targets every five years, enabling them to “ratchet up” (or ramp up) their effort over time to cut climate pollution. 

National targets need to be backed by plans and policies to allow those planned reductions to be achieved. 

This year marks a critical moment for our climate future. Under the Paris Agreement, nations are required to submit new 2035 climate targets. Collectively, these targets must slash global climate pollution fast enough to keep temperatures within internationally agreed limits designed to prevent catastrophic harm to people and ecosystems.

The central goal of the Paris Agreement is “holding the increase in the global average  temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels” and pursuing efforts “to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.”

Australia’s 2035 climate target is an opportunity to set Australia on the right path, one which keeps our kids safer from the impacts of climate change and sets our economy up for success in a fossil fuel-free world. Climate Council’s report, Stronger Target, Safer Future: Why Australia’s 2035 Climate Target Matters, provides a framework for setting the strongest possible targets.

Securing a safer future means hitting the brakes on accelerating climate change

Climate science is clear: humanity is now releasing huge volumes of heat-trapping greenhouse gases into our atmosphere, primarily from the burning of coal, oil, and gas. This layer of gas acts like a blanket, trapping more heat every year. That heat fuels worsening extreme weather events and is dramatically damaging the ecological systems that sustain human life. In other words, we are living through a climate crisis.

In the future, the scale and severity of the climate crisis will depend on:

• How quickly we cut climate pollution; and 
• How much global temperatures rise as a result.

Every fraction of a degree of global temperature rise leads to more frequent and ferocious extreme weather events, ecosystem damage, and impacts on lives around the world. On the other hand, avoiding even a fraction of a degree of global heating is extremely significant in reducing risks to communities worldwide. 

Global average temperature rise is now 1.3°C above the pre-industrial average and, in 2024, global average temperatures hit 1.6°C over a full year, breaking through 1.5°C for the first time. Importantly, these temperature thresholds cannot be breached in a single year – climate science, and the Paris Agreement, take a longer-term view of global average temperature over decades. But this is a clear warning sign that we are moving closer and closer to exceeding the 1.5°C temperature threshold. 

We are currently on a trajectory towards drastic global temperature rise and catastrophic climate impacts that could undermine the foundations of our society, prosperity, and security. Swift action to slash climate pollution from the burning of coal, oil and gas is the only solution which can protect those most vulnerable to the catastrophic impacts.

“Climate history is playing out before our eyes. We’ve had not just one or two record-breaking years, but a full 10-year series. This has been accompanied by devastating and extreme weather, rising sea levels and melting ice, all powered by record-breaking greenhouse gas levels due to human activities.” – WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo. 

The rate of global warming is now 0.27°C per decade and, without urgent efforts to cut climate pollution, we will overshoot the Paris Agreement’s goal of holding warming well below 2ºC in less than two decades. Climate change is accelerating and the risks are escalating at a much quicker pace than we previously thought.

The UN’s latest assessment concluded that the “current national climate plans fall miles short of what’s needed to stop global heating from crippling every economy, and wrecking billions of lives and livelihoods across every country”. 

It is in this context that countries are required to submit their 2035 target under the Paris Agreement later this year.

What climate target should Australia commit to?

Australia will submit our new 2035 climate target, a Nationally Determined Contribution, under the Paris Agreement this year. The current target, to reduce Australia’s climate pollution 43% on 2005 levels by 2030, was legislated in 2022.

The Climate Change Authority has been charged with providing advice to the Australian Government on setting and achieving its 2035 target. This advice is expected to be shared imminently. In 2024, the Authority released an issues paper, ‘Targets, Pathways and Progress’, which considered a target range of 65-75% below 2005 levels by 2035.

In anticipation of this advice being provided to the Australian Government, Climate Council commissioned Climate Resource to assess the global warming implications of an Australian 2035 climate target. The analysis uses the latest emissions data and shows what an Australian target means for global average temperature risk.

This new analysis shows the only Australian target that’s compatible with holding global warming below 2°C is net zero by 2035. The closer the Australian Government’s 2035 climate target gets to net zero, the less climate risk Australians face. 

The analysis also shows that a 2035 climate target of -75% or more (on 2005 levels) is aligned with more than 2°C of global heating, but likely less than 2.3°C*. Weaker targets are aligned with even higher levels of global heating. Each fraction of a degree of global heating is associated with more catastrophic impacts to communities and ecosystems. A -65% target is aligned with below 2.4°C of global heating.

The Australian Government must set the strongest possible 2035 climate target. A stronger target will keep Australians safer. A weaker target risks more disasters, more damage and more danger.

Climate consequences if the world fails to set strong targets

As our climate has warmed, Australia has been being hit hard. Where long-term global warming is currently about 1.3°C above pre-industrial levels, Australia has warmed by an average of around 1.51°C since national records began in 1910.

This increase in temperature is fuelling more frequent and intense extreme weather events, including extreme heat, heavy rainfall, coastal inundation, dangerous bushfire weather and drought. Many communities have now experienced back-to-back disasters that would have previously been considered a 1-in-50 or 1-in-100 year weather event. 

The IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C (IPCC 2018) shows the risks for both human and natural systems are lower if global temperature rise stabilises at 1.5°C. There are substantial increases in extreme weather events (e.g. extreme heat, heavy precipitation events and drought) between 1.5°C and 2°C. Impacts on land-based biodiversity and ecosystems are less at 1.5°C than 2°C, but overshooting the 1.5°C target could have irreversible impacts on some species and ecosystems. 

Climate change is accelerating, and current global efforts – including Australia’s – are dangerously inadequate. The future scale and severity of the climate crisis will depend on how quickly and deeply we slash global climate pollution. Each fraction of a degree of global heating is associated with more catastrophic impacts to communities and ecosystems.

For more information see our Stronger Target, Safer Future: Why Australia’s 2035 Climate Target Matters report.

Climate Council has launched a petition calling on the Australian Government to set the strongest possible 2035 climate target – and take urgent action to meet it!

*Assuming other countries adopt the same per-capita share of the global carbon budget.

The post What is the Paris Agreement and why does Australia need to set a Nationally Determined Contribution? appeared first on Climate Council.

The Albanese Labor Government’s imminent decision on Australia’s 2035 climate target will shape the lives of every Australian. Climate Council’s latest report, Stronger Target, Safer Future: Why Australia’s 2035 Climate Target Matters, warns the safety, security and prosperity of our communities and environment is at stake as the government finalises their decision.

The science is clear. To do our fair share to hold global warming to well below 2°C, Australia needs to reduce climate pollution to 75% below 2005 levels by 2030, and reach net zero by 2035. Every fraction of a degree of warming avoided matters. While some climate impacts are getting progressively worse, like heatwaves or bushfire risk, beyond 2°C scientists warn that we will see abrupt, irreversible changes or tipping points that supercharge global warming and cause widespread system collapse, like:

• The loss of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, leading to multi-metre sea level rise.
• Frozen soils in the Arctic melt, releasing vast quantities of heat-trapping gases. 
• The Amazon rainforest experiences massive dieback – where plants die off en masse – releasing huge volumes of heat-trapping gases.

Why is Australia setting a 2035 climate target?

The Paris Agreement, adopted by 195 countries in 2015, represents the world’s collective approach to tackling climate change. Under the agreement, nations submit targets to cut climate pollution – described as Nationally Determined Contributions – every five years, enabling them to ramp up efforts over time to cut climate pollution. Together, these targets chart a global pathway to slash climate pollution and prevent global temperatures from exceeding agreed limits.

Like countries world-wide, Australia is expected to submit our 2035 climate target this year. The current target, to reduce Australia’s climate pollution 43% on 2005 levels by 2030, was legislated in 2022

Australia’s 2035 climate target is an opportunity to set Australia on the right path, one which keeps our kids safer from climate change and sets our economy up for success in a fossil fuel-free world. 

What climate target should Australia commit to?

Climate Council commissioned Climate Resource to assess the global warming implications of an Australian 2035 climate target. The analysis uses the latest emissions data and shows what an Australian target means for global average temperature risk.

This new analysis shows the only Australian target that’s compatible with holding global warming below 2°C is net zero by 2035. The closer the Australian Government’s 2035 climate target gets to net zero, the less climate risk Australians face. 

The analysis also shows that a 2035 climate target to reduce pollution by 75% or more puts the world on track to heat by more than 2°C but likely less than by 2.3°C, if other countries adopt the same per capita share of the remaining global budget from 2024 onwards.

Weaker targets are aligned with even higher levels of global heating. Each fraction of a degree of global heating is associated with more catastrophic impacts to communities and ecosystems. A 2035 target to reduce pollution by 65% is aligned with below 2.4°C of global heating.

At the end of the day, the stronger the climate target, the safer Australians are from climate risks. On the other hand, the weaker the target, the more vulnerable we become.

What targets are possible for Australia to achieve over the next decade?

Several significant Australian-based research projects have demonstrated that deep cuts to climate pollution in the next 10 years are possible. 

• The CSIRO’s pathway to reduce emissions by 75% on 2005 levels by 2035 and reach net zero by 2040. Under this scenario, average real GDP growth from 2020 to 2050 would only be 0.03 percentage points lower than the net zero by 2050 scenario, a cost significantly less than the economic, social and health benefits of cutting emissions.
• ClimateWorks Centre’s decarbonisation modelling, which shows how Australia can reduce emissions by 85% by 2035, demonstrates that a stronger 2035 target is achievable. 
• Climate Council’s Seize the Decade report shows that, by going all-in on proven clean technology that’s already available, Australia could reach a 75% climate pollution cut this decade. This suggests much more is possible by 2035, with further time available for technology development, the rollout of solutions like batteries, electric vehicles and electrification, and the wider availability of zero-emissions fuels like green hydrogen and sustainable aviation fuels.

What changes would Australia need to make to deliver a strong 2035 climate target?

Achieving stronger climate targets will require more action across our economy to double down on what is already working, and build the clean industries of the future. Australian households and businesses will need to change the way they power themselves, make things, and get around. Australian governments will face changes to revenue sources as coal and gas exports decline, and new industries emerge. 

We’re already making progress in Australia, with existing policies and efforts projected to cut climate pollution by almost 43% on 2005 levels by 2030 – a 13 percentage point improvement from 2021 projections. Already, a 51% climate pollution cut is projected by 2035 just by implementing current policies.

To protect Australians from the consequences of the climate crisis, Australia can also consider tackling its global carbon footprint by:

• Developing clean industries that contribute to global pollution reduction. For example, by developing green metals, cathode and battery manufacturing, sustainable shipping and aviation fuels;
• Supporting developing countries in their transition through climate finance or other mechanisms; and 
• Reducing our exported climate pollution, particularly by not approving new fossil fuel projects.

In recent years, climate solutions have been delivered at a speed and scale that has surpassed expectations. The last decade has seen incredible progress, with the cost of many climate solutions reducing dramatically. The key lesson here is our ambitions should not be constrained by what we currently consider to be the limit of our clean energy potential. Just as progress in renewable electricity outstripped all expectations over the last decade, progress in industrial decarbonisation and harder-to-abate sectors can far exceed our current projections over the next. 

By aiming high we give ourselves the best opportunity at fulfilling our true potential. The climate crisis demands that we do everything we can, everywhere we can, as fast as we can.

Climate consequences if the world fails to set strong targets

As our climate has warmed, Australia has been hit hard. Where long-term global warming is currently about 1.3°C above pre-industrial levels, Australia has warmed by an average of around 1.51°C since national records began in 1910.

This increase in temperature is fuelling more frequent and intense extreme weather events, including extreme heat, heavy rainfall, coastal inundation, dangerous bushfire weather and drought. Many communities have now experienced back-to-back disasters that would have previously been considered a 1-in-50 or 1-in-100 year weather event. 

Climate-driven extreme weather events in Australia are already becoming more frequent and intense, with devastating impacts. 

The future scale and severity of the climate crisis will depend on how quickly and deeply we slash global climate pollution. Each fraction of a degree of global heating is associated with more catastrophic impacts to communities and ecosystems.

For more information see our Stronger Target, Safer Future: Why Australia’s 2035 Climate Target Matters report.

Climate Council has launched a petition calling on the Australian Government to set the strongest possible 2035 climate target – and take urgent action to meet it!

The post Why Australia needs to set a strong climate target this year appeared first on Climate Council.

What began as a group of 27 Pacific Island law students is now a turning point that strengthens a struggling multilateral system for climate action. The Vanuatu government was also a driving force behind this first ever legal opinion on climate change. With these proceedings, we are seeing a familiar storyline play out in the international arena, one that the Pacific is all too familiar with – that if we want to survive the climate crisis, it is up to us to chart the path of least destruction. Whether or not the world follows our lead has differed over history.

Ten years ago, those of us present in Paris cried tears of resolve and pride when Republic of the Marshall Islands Foreign Minister, Tony De Brum, masterfully led the High Ambition Coalition to negotiate and secure what we now know as the Paris Agreement. The world then followed suit with their national emissions targets, some worthy of the phrase “climate action”, and some not. In 2022, Tuvalu became the first country to call for a Fossil Fuel Non Proliferation Treaty, with 135 cities and subnational governments today backing that same call. Over the years, Pacific Island states have attempted to set high bars for climate ambition and prayed that those with the power to impact global emissions saw our survival as worth fighting for.

Today, this call-and-response is again at play for the Pacific. When we became aware of Australia’s intentions to host COP31 as an Australia-Pacific COP, we saw the opportunity to chart a path encouraging Australia’s climate leadership. But it has been no easy feat. When the Australian government signalled its addiction to gas expansion in Canberra last May, a group of Pacific Islanders took to parliament lawns calling for a renewable energy transition instead – both domestically and within the Pacific region. Climate Minister Chris Bowen’s recent visit to the Pacific indicated that Australia’s direction, at least in terms of a Pacific energy transition, could be looking positive. On this four-nation tour, Australia committed $16.4 million to upgrade Palau’s electricity network and shift to renewable energy. This includes the 15MW Palau Solar Farm, one of the Pacific’s largest solar power projects. However, President Surangel Whipps Jr of Palau has made it clear that a “Pacific COP” would require more than renewable energy investments. It would call on Australia to address its gas addiction and position as one of the top-three fossil fuel exporters in the world.

The issue of Australia’s coal and gas exports is the stain on Australia’s potential climate legacy. Even as Australia courts Pacific leaders in their bid for COP31, Environment Minister Murray Watt recently approved the extension of the Woodside’s North West Shelf gas plant, one of the world’s biggest fossil gas projects, prolonging its life from 2030 to 2070. The extension is expected to be responsible for about 87.9m tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent every year in the decades ahead. Acts of hypocrisy like this make it increasingly difficult to trust Australia as a partner to Pacific peoples, as continued fossil fuel exports exacerbate climate disasters across our islands.

So as we skate dangerously close to the 1.5 degree target set in Paris, we cannot allow the next five years to be where we lose our fight against the climate crisis. Australia’s current emissions reduction target of 43% by 2030 is woefully short of what’s required to keep global heating below 1.5 degrees, and predictions of its revised emissions target due this year are still unclear. As a potential COP host within this critical timeframe, Australia has the opportunity and responsibility to up its climate game significantly – but only by listening to Pacific co-hosts and following our lead.

We have dreams and pathways for a Pacific free from fossil fuels and climate catastrophe, and we are actively trying to secure the resources and relationships to make that a reality. We have employed everything at our disposal to realise this dream, from diplomacy to litigation to grassroots activism. It is clear that both history and international law are on our side. What remains to be seen is how Australia responds to the role they’ve been cast in the story of our survival.

Author: Fenton Lutunatabua, 350.org Deputy Head of Regions and founder of the Pacific Climate Warriors.

Photo: ABC News

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Climate Council Preliminary Analysis, “Obligations of the States in Respect of Climate Council”.

The advice shows:

1. Countries have very strong obligations under international law to cut climate pollution and prevent significant harm to the global climate that sustains human life. 

The Court refers both to climate treaties and other bodies of international law.

2. Australia is obligated to set strong, science aligned climate targets.

The Court makes clear that it “considers the 1.5°C threshold to be the parties’ agreed primary temperature goal for limiting the global average temperature increase under the Paris Agreement.” It states that countries “Nationally Determined Contribution” (NDC),  which includes the 2035 climate target, must be in line with the Paris Agreement goal to limit global temperature increase to 1.5°C. The advice further emphasises that each country must “do its utmost to ensure that the NDCs it puts forward represent its highest possible ambition in order to realize the objectives of the [Paris] Agreement.” 

Yesterday, the Climate Council released the latest scientific data showing that this goal is almost out of reach for Australia due to a decade of delayed action (2013-2022). That research shows net zero by 2035 is the only climate target available to Australia with a strong chance of contributing to holding global warming below 2°C.  However, the Court makes clear that to be aligned with Paris obligations a country’s actions should be consistent with holding warming to 1.5°C. Therefore Australia may be obligated to contribute to global efforts to slash climate pollution as well as take steps at home – for instance building new industries (e.g. green iron) and preventing new fossil fuel projects.

The Federal Government has accelerated climate action in the last three years, including reaching 43% renewable power in Australia’s main grid. The action must now be strengthened to meet our international obligations.

The Australian Government is expected to make its decision on Australia’s 2035 climate target in the coming months. The Court’s advice makes clear that a target should be as strong as possible and accompanied by plans and policies to implement that target. It can further be argued that, to comply with international law, this judgement requires Australia to both set a strong national target and take action on exported emissions to help hold global heating to 1.5°C.

3. On-going production, consumption and granting of licenses and subsidies for fossil fuels could constitute wrongful acts under international law. Wrongful acts may trigger obligations to compensate other countries suffering from climate harm. 

The Court states that: “What constitutes a wrongful act is not the emissions in and of themselves, but actions or omissions causing significant harm to the climate system in breach of a state’s international obligations.”

The Federal Government has argued that Australia is not responsible for the emissions from Australia’s vast exports of coal and gas. The Court disagrees. Australia is one of the largest exporters of fossil fuels, therefore there is a strong case that ongoing support and expansion of Australia’s export industry constitutes “significant harm to the climate system”.

The Court finds that individual countries can still be found responsible, even if it is hard to identify a specific share of harm they have caused. The Court notes that it is “scientifically possible to determine each State’s total contribution to global emissions, taking into account both historical and current emissions.” 

Given Australia has consistently been one of the highest per capita polluters in the world and one of the world’s most prolific fossil fuel exporters, it can also be argued that Australia’s relative share of harm is significant. This will also likely be argued in respect to other countries that are major polluters and fossil fuel exporters.

The Court states that wrongful acts – which could include breaching treaty obligations or failing to regulate climate pollution – under international law could trigger repatriation obligations, including obligations to compensate other countries harmed by climate disasters. 

The Court also finds an obligation for countries to limit climate pollution from private actors in its jurisdiction. This appears to be a broad definition that would apply to fossil fuels production for international or domestic use.

The Court’s advice gives the Australian government reason to consider the totality of Australia’s contribution to climate harm, including our exported climate pollution. In particular, the Court’s decision is pertinent to the Federal Government’s review of Australia’s national environment laws. Currently, when the Federal Environment Minister considers whether to approve new fossil fuel projects there is no provision in the act to consider the climate pollution from that project. Given the Court’s very strong findings, it will be difficult for the Australian government to argue that it has the “highest possible ambition in order to realize the objectives of the [Paris] Agreement”, if it does not reform the environment laws and/or take other substantive measures to prevent the expansion of Australia’s fossil fuel industry.

The post Implications of the International Court of Justice decision for Australia appeared first on Climate Council.

It is critical to understand that these kinds of disasters are no longer simply “natural”. Extreme rainfall events have become more frequent and intense in Australia, and communities are suffering the consequences. Again and again. 

It is vital that emergency services, journalists and media outlets, governments and communities understand why these events are occurring with increasing frequency and ferocity so that we can tackle the root cause – pollution from coal, oil and gas – as well as prepare for more destructive disasters into the future.

There are at least three ways that climate change is influencing the intensity of these floods:

1. More water in the atmosphere leads to more heavy downpours

As the climate heats, the global atmosphere holds more moisture. The total amount of water vapour in the atmosphere reached a record value in 2024, at about 5% above the 1991–2020 average. With the atmosphere laden with more moisture, extreme downpours have become more common. 

The latest research for Australia shows that more rain is falling during extreme events. We are experiencing:

• 7-28% more rain for shorter duration rainfall events (the type of events associated with flash flooding); and
• 2-15% more rain for longer duration events. 

This range is much higher than the 5% figures that are used in existing flood planning standards by the likes of policy makers, engineers and urban planners.

2. A hotter climate means more energy for storms

A hotter, wetter and more energetic climate also means there is more energy to fuel storms that generate heavy rainfall. Since July 2024, sea surface temperatures in Australia have been the warmest or second warmest on record for each respective month. That means the energy available to power storms has also increased – largely due to rising ocean temperatures from the burning of fossil fuels.

3. Changing “atmospheric rivers” and extreme rain

A near-stationary high pressure system in the Tasman Sea has contributed to the persistence of this rainfall event, stalling a moist, easterly flow of air over the NSW coast. Similarly, in major flooding events in 2021 and 2022, a “blocking high” contributed to the severity of flooding. Emerging research suggests that climate change may affect the drivers of multi-day rainfall extremes, including a “blocking high” (CSIRO and BoM 2024). This is an important area for further research.

What is the impact of extreme flooding on Australian communities?

Floods have been the most damaging disasters in Australia over the last decade. Floods are New South Wales’ deadliest disaster and cause more injuries than other extreme weather events. Immediate impacts of floods include property damage, destruction of crops and livestock, clean up costs and emergency response.

The increasing frequency and severity of extreme events means communities are facing successive disasters with little time in between to recover.

“We’ve had back-to-back flood events since the 2019-20 fires. These are compounding events for communities still in recovery; it’s what we expect with people being in a constant state of disaster recovery under climate change”

– Andrew Gissing, Chief Executive of Natural Hazards Research Australia.

The MidCoast Local Government Area has experienced back-to-back disasters over the last six years, needing support for disaster recovery on 13 occasions, including with the community experiencing extensive damage during Black Summer, the 2021 East Coast floods and again following this latest extreme flood event. Communities are picking up the pieces over and over again.

Much of the affected area has been identified as at high risk of flooding, with insurance becoming too expensive for many home owners in most at risk areas. 

Emergency services are reporting being overwhelmed by the “increasing frequency, intensity and destructiveness of out of control fires, floods and storms”.

Australia’s climate disasters in 2025

This event comes as Australia has already experienced a succession of major climate disasters in the first five months of 2025. As a nation, we are experiencing “climate whiplash” – being hurled violently from one extreme to another. This year:

• Ningaloo Reef has experienced its first mass bleaching event;
• The Great Barrier Reef has experienced the sixth mass coral bleaching in nine years; 

• Ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred was exacerbated by hot ocean temperatures, a wetter atmosphere and higher seas. The unusually slow speed led to greater deluges over areas it passed, while the southerly track brought risks to communities not usually exposed to cyclones;
• Western Queensland floods, partly driven by Ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred, were likely the largest on record; 
• Swathes of South Australia, Victoria, Tasmania and Western Australia are in the grip of drought as they experience some of the lowest rainfall totals on record.\; and
• South Australia’s Algae Bloom is driven by an underwater heatwave which has led to unprecedented animal deaths.

What does the future look like?

The frequency of intense rainfall events is expected to almost double with each degree of global heating. However, we can still influence how much worse things become if we act urgently. The severity of the climate crisis depends on how swiftly and deeply we slash climate pollution. This decade is critical.

Appendix: Disaster Recovery Funding Arrangement Activations for local government areas impacted by the May 2025 NSW floods (February 2019 – May 2025)

Disaster Recovery Funding Arrangement (DRFA) activations for local government areas data can be accessed here.

Information on the local government areas receiving DRFA assistance can be found here.

Image credit: NSW SES, Facebook

The post Climate Council Statement On NSW Floods: More Destructive Due To Climate Change appeared first on Climate Council.

“Communities in northern NSW and SE Queensland experiencing back to back disasters are asking why? It is critical that Australians know that Cyclone Alfred, like so many other extremes across Australia, is more intense and destructive due to climate change. This is essential to assisting communities and emergency services to prepare for disasters.”

“The Climate Council has released the following statement to clarify how climate change has made this cyclone more damaging than it would otherwise be.” 

Climate Council Statement on Tropical Cyclone Alfred

Communities in Queensland and northern NSW are bracing for the destructive force of the wind, rain and storm surges from Cyclone Alfred. It is currently moving towards the southeast Queensland coast and is expected to remain as a category 2 tropical cyclone until it crosses the coast.

It is critical that we understand that such disasters are no longer simply “natural”. Climate pollution has made Cyclone Alfred more intense and destructive.

It is vital that communities, emergency services, media and governments understand this to ensure that we can both tackle the root cause – pollution from coal, oil and gas – as well as prepare for more destructive disasters into the future.

There are several ways that climate change is influencing Tropical Cyclone Alfred:

1. Climate change has made our oceans hotter which is driving more ferocious and destructive cyclones. 

• Hotter conditions provide more fuel for extreme winds, intense rainfall and larger storms. Around the world maximum wind speeds are getting stronger for cyclones.
• The oceans on the east coast have been exceptionally hot. Sea surface temperatures were the warmest on record for each month between October 2024 and February 2025.

2. The risk of flooding damage from Tropical Cyclone Alfred is greater due to climate change. 

• One of the deadliest aspects of a cyclone is when a storm pushes ocean water onto land, called a storm surge. Sea levels around Australia have risen 20cm due to climate change and so a storm surge now rides on much higher seas. The storm surge during Cyclone Alfred will be higher, and go further onto land, as a consequence of climate change.
• A hotter world is a wetter world due to more evaporation. Climate change is driving more extreme rainfall, including during cyclones. Some areas in northern NSW and southeast Queensland could experience 40% of Brisbane’s annual rainfall in 24 hours. 
• There is evidence that tropical cyclones are moving more slowly across the ocean and land. That means they can linger longer over communities and dump immense amounts of rain over a small area, while also sustaining damaging windspeeds for a longer period.
• Heavy rainfall and a storm surge together exacerbates flooding, which is a major risk right now for communities in southeast Queensland and northern NSW. 

3. Cyclone Alfred is tracking further south than cyclones usually do in Australia. 

• Tropical cyclones normally occur in the tropics. Southern communities have rarely had to face or prepare for these sorts of events. Many homes and infrastructure in southeast Queensland are not built to withstand cyclones and the destructive winds they bring.
• Scientists are concerned that, as our oceans heat up, cyclones may track further south on the east coast. 

4. Climate pollution is driving more ferocious and costly extreme weather events. While Australia is now cutting pollution, but it is not fast or far enough. We must slash climate pollution to prevent the problem from getting worse, as well as prepare communities and our infrastructure for the disasters we cannot avoid.

See this fact sheet Cyclone Fact Sheet for more information.

The post Cyclone Alfred More Intense and Destructive due to Climate Change appeared first on Climate Council.

Read the original article. Written by Climate Councillor, Professor David Karoly and Associate Professor Andrew King.

The year 2024 was the world’s warmest on record globally, and the first calendar year in which global temperatures exceeded 1.5°C above its pre-industrial levels.

The official declaration was made on Friday by the Copernicus Climate Change Service, the European Union’s Earth observation program. It comes as wildfires continue to tear through Los Angeles, California – a disaster scientists say was made worse by climate change.

This record-breaking global heat is primarily driven by humanity’s ongoing greenhouse gas emissions, caused by the burning of fossil fuels. The warming won’t stop until we reach net-zero emissions.

Clearly, the need for humanity to rapidly reduce its greenhouse gas emissions has never been more urgent.

An exceptional year

The Copernicus findings are consistent with other leading global temperature datasets indicating 2024 was the hottest year since records began in 1850.

The global average temperature in 2024 was about 1.6°C above the average temperatures in the late-19th century (which is used to represent pre-industrial levels).

On July 22 last year, the daily global average temperature reached 17.16°C. This was a new record high.

Copernicus also found that each year in the last decade was one of the ten warmest on record. According to Copernicus director Carlo Buontempo:

We are now teetering on the edge of passing the 1.5ºC level defined in the Paris Agreement and the average of the last two years is already above this level.

These high global temperatures, coupled with record global atmospheric water vapour levels in 2024, meant unprecedented heatwaves and heavy rainfall events, causing misery for millions of people.

How scientists take Earth’s temperature

Estimating the global average surface temperature is no mean feat. The methods vary between organisations, but the overall picture is the same: 2024 was the world’s hottest year on record.

The high global average temperature of 2024 wouldn’t have been possible without humanity’s greenhouse gas emissions. The El Niño climate driver also played a role in the first part of the year. It warmed Earth’s surface – particularly over a large swathe of the central and eastern Pacific – and increased global average surface temperature by up to 0.2°C.

What about Australia?

Copernicus found 2024 was the warmest year for all continents except Antarctica and Australasia.

But Australia is feeling the shift into a hotter, less hospitable climate, too. Last year was Australia’s second-hottest year on record, according to a declaration last week by the Bureau of Meteorology.

The hottest was 2019, when a blisteringly hot and dry spring led to the widespread bushfires of the Black Summer. Unlike 2019, Australia had a wetter than normal year in 2024.

However, 2024 was the hottest year on record for the southwest of Australia and parts of the centre and east of the continent.

Apart from April, Australia saw unusual warmth through all of 2024. August was the standout month for record-breaking heat.

In general, temperature records are broken more easily at the global scale than in individual regions. That’s because weather is more variable at the local level than on a global average. A period of, say, very cold weather in one part of a continent can bring down annual average temperatures there, preventing records from being broken.

That’s why Australia’s annual average temperatures have reached record highs three times since 2000 – in 2005, 2013 and 2019 – whereas the global average temperature set six new records in that period.

Does this mean the Paris Agreement has failed?

The global Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. So, if 2024 was about 1.6°C above pre-industrial levels, you might think the world has failed to meet this goal. But it hasn’t, yet.

The success of the Paris Agreement will be measured against longer periods than temperatures over a year. That eliminates natural climate variability and factors such as El Niño and La Niña, to build a clearer picture of climate change.

However, the statistics for 2024 are certainly a bad sign. It shows humanity has its work cut out to keep global warming well below 2°C, let alone 1.5°C.

More heat guaranteed

There’s one very important thing to understand about climate change: the amount of greenhouse gases that humans emit over time is roughly proportional to the increase in global temperatures over that same period.

This near-linear relationship means every tonne of greenhouse gas emissions from human activity causes about the same amount of global warming. So, the faster we decarbonise the global economy, the sooner we can halt global warming and reduce its harms.

This year is unlikely to be quite as hot as 2024 because the El Niño has passed. But unfortunately, Earth will continue to experience record hot global temperatures for at least the next few decades.

This is all the more reason for humanity to move faster in decarbonising our society and economy. It’s not too late to shift the long-term trajectory of Earth’s climate.

The post As Los Angeles combusts, 2024 is declared Earth’s hottest on record appeared first on Climate Council.

Heatwaves across South and Southeast Asia

In April, the Philippines, Thailand, Bangladesh and India all faced unrelenting heat that disrupted schooling and created concerns for public health. In Manila, the capital of the Philippines, in-person classes were suspended due to extreme heat, whilst half of the county’s provinces continued to experience drought. Although hotter temperatures are normal in these months, the temperatures this year were worsened by the El Niño event — against the backdrop of our fast warming planet — bringing hotter and drier conditions to the region. 

In Thailand, 30 people have died this year due to heat stroke and authorities have warned people to limit their outdoor activity as a result. Demand for electricity soared to a record high as communities switched on their AC’s for some relief.  

Heatwaves in India affected voter turnout during the world’s biggest election, as nearly a billion Indians headed to polls. The cities of Nandyala and Kadapa, located in Andhra Pradesh, reached a record-breaking temperature of 46.3°C.

How is climate change affecting heatwaves in Australia?

Brazil rains and flooding

The state of Rio Grande do Sul, populated by almost 11 million people, has suffered the most extensive climate-fueled catastrophe in its history. Over 10 days between the end of April and the beginning of May, parts of the state recorded 500-700 millimeters of rain. That’s between a third and almost half of the average annual rainfall. More than 100 people were killed, more than 130 missing, and nearly 400 people were injured across the 425 municipalities affected. 

UAE rains and flooding

In April, the United Arab Emirates experienced extreme downpours which caused flooding across major highways and Dubai International Airport. Cars were stranded, and the airport — the world’s busiest hub for international travel — saw major delays and disruptions. The rainfall was the heaviest the country had experienced in 75 years. 

Kenya rains and flooding

In early May, floods and heavy rainfall in Kenya took the lives of more than 225 people. A further 160 people were injured and over 212,630 people have been displaced across the country. This comes just a year after parts of Kenya experienced four consecutive seasons with little rain, creating one of Kenya’s worst droughts. Climate pollution is disrupting our rainfall patterns, leading to extreme downpours punctuated by prolonged dry spells. 

Learn more about floods and climate change here.

Wildfires in Canada

Communities across Western Canada are again experiencing a very early start to their fire season. Wildfires are burning out of control, moving rapidly and forcing towns to evacuate. Firefighters said that extreme fire danger has been made worse by years of drought and a below normal snowpack the past winter. This comes right after Canada’s own ‘Black Summer’, with the country enduring the longest and most destructive fire season in its history last year. The 2023 season saw a record number of wildfires, four firefighters lose their lives, more than 250,000 Canadians forced to evacuate their homes, and thick smoke blown across parts of the US. Wildfires across Canada in 2023 put 2.98 metric tons of CO2 in the air – that’s 4x more emissions than planes did last year, or the same amount as 647 million cars.

Climate change is changing bushfire patterns. Find out more here

Deadly Cyclone hits Bangladesh and West Bengal 

In late May, Cyclone Remal, with wind speeds measuring up to 140km/h ripped through the Bay of Bengal affecting both the coastal regions of Bangladesh and India’s West Bengal state. While only moderate in strength, Cyclone Remal proved very destructive, forcing over 800,000 people in Bangladesh and over 110,000 people in India to evacuate to storm shelters, and killing at least 69 people. Tropical cyclones are part of life for these coastal communities, but warmer oceans and rising sea levels are making them more dangerous.

Find out more about how climate change is affecting cyclones.

Tornadoes and storms in the USA 

In the USA, over 500,000 people were left without electricity as powerful tornadoes tore through four states in the USA. Whilst this part of the USA is prone to tornadoes, a warming atmosphere may be changing the location, timing and duration of these highly destructive weather events, making them more difficult to prepare for.

Climate change, driven by the burning of coal, oil and gas is making extreme weather events more severe and more frequent. We urgently need to cut climate pollution this decade to limit the severity of future events.

Wondering how you can talk about the link between climate change and extreme weather? Check out our explainer here!

There is no safe level of climate pollution and everything we do to reduce it matters. Luckily the Climate Council has a practical and achievable plan for how to electrify the nation with proven technologies and cut climate pollution by 75% this decade. 

Australia is on the right path and we’ve already made progress. What we do now matters, and governments at all levels have the opportunity to build on this momentum to seize this decade and ensure millions more Australians enjoy the benefits of a cleaner, safer future.

The post 2024’s Climate Crisis: Extreme Weather Around the Globe Signals the Urgent need for Action appeared first on Climate Council.

The letter, signed by 14 international and Australian marine and climate scientists – including IPCC authors – draws attention to the most severe bleaching event in recorded history currently unfolding on the Great Barrier Reef.

The scientists have rallied to make clear to the Prime Minister the severity of reef bleaching and have urged him to ensure Australia’s new, improved, national nature protection laws are passed before the end of this term of government.

To:  The Hon Anthony Albanese MP

       Prime Minister

CC: The Hon Tanya Plibersek MP, Minister for the Environment and Water

Dear Prime Minister,

Australia’s Great Barrier Reef is in grave danger due to repeated severe bleaching events driven by climate pollution, with not enough time to recover in the gaps between events.

This is the worst heat stress event for the Great Barrier Reef on record, which is undergoing widespread and severe bleaching as a result. 

This is the fifth mass bleaching event in nine years. Previous mass bleaching events on the Great Barrier Reef occurred in 1998, 2002, 2016, 2017, 2020, and 2022. All were due to unprecedented heat stress caused by climate change. 

Since the last mass bleaching in 2022, at least five coal and gas projects have been approved by the Labor Government under Australia’s outdated national environment law: the EPBC Act.

Unfortunately, instead of the progress we were promised when the overhaul of this Act was announced, we now have no clear timeline of when this will occur. 

Australia’s new national nature protection laws must be delivered before the end of this term. And they must include a clear requirement to assess whether projects will cause more climate harm for nature as part of the assessment process. Given the damage climate change does to nature, it would be reckless to do otherwise.

There is strong scientific, community and parliamentary support for the Albanese government to thoroughly embed climate change considerations into the new laws.

Australia is the world’s third largest fossil fuel exporter. Climate change is global, so no matter where in the world Australia’s coal and gas exports are burnt, they damage nature here at home, which is precisely why our nature laws must consider potential climate impacts, including direct and downstream pollution.

Australians understand the Great Barrier Reef is irreplaceable and want to protect it so all generations can experience its wonder and beauty. 

We urge the government to heed the science, listen to the Australian community and commit to working with the Parliament to close the climate gap in our national nature laws.

Signed,

• Professor Ove Hoegh Goldberg, Professor of Marine Science at the University of Queensland
• Professor Gretta Pecl, Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania
• Professor Lesley Hughes, Professor Lesley Hughes is a Distinguished Professor of Biology and former Pro Vice-Chancellor Macquarie University
• Professor Jodie Rummer, Professor of Marine Biology, James Cook University
• Professor Emeritus David Karoly, University of Melbourne, (Climate Scientist) 
• Dr Selina Ward, Honorary Senior Research Fellow, School of the Environment, University of Queensland
• Dr Stuart Kininmonth, Heron Island Research Station Manager, Associate Professor of Marine Studies, University of the South Pacific
• Dr Tero Mustonen, Lead Author for the 6th IPCC Assessment
• Dr Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Co-Chair, Working Group I, IPCC
• Dr Simon Bradshaw, Director of Research, the Climate Council
• Dr Ben Fitzpatrick Director, Oceanwise Australia; Adjunct Research Fellow, UWA Oceans Institute
• Dr Maya Srinivasan, Centre for Tropical Water & Aquatic System Research (TropWATER) James Cook University
• Dr Yolanda Waters, Research Fellow, University of Queensland and founder of Divers for Climate Action
• Dr Dean Miller, CEO Great Barrier Reef Legacy and Forever Reef Project

Header image Credit: Harriet Spark

The post Letter to the Federal Government to close the climate gap on our nature laws appeared first on Climate Council.