The draft 2026 roadmap confirms what plenty of energy experts know (and 4 million Aussie households with solar on the roof have experienced): renewable energy, powered by the sun and wind, is the lowest-cost way to deliver the clean and reliable energy Australia needs now. 

The latest ISP shows we are well on our way to a reliable renewables-powered grid, with more than 40 percent of the electricity in our main national grid already coming from clean wind, hydro and solar. Now, we need to build on this progress so even more Australians can enjoy the benefits.

Let’s take a look in a bit more detail.

First, what’s AEMO?  

AEMO is the organisation that makes sure our electricity and energy systems work smoothly to provide clean, reliable and affordable power for our homes, businesses and industry. Every two years, AEMO publishes an updated roadmap that governments, businesses, investors and others rely on for upgrading Australia’s electricity grid all the way out to 2050. This shows us the best way forward to keep power reliable as we keep cutting climate pollution from coal and gas and our energy needs keep growing. 
AEMO’s roadmap specifically looks at Australia’s main national electricity grid (referred to as the National Electricity Market, or NEM), which is one of the largest power systems in the world. It provides electricity to more than 23 million people – that’s almost 90% of Australia’s population.

What does the roadmap tell us? Here are our top six takeaways.

1. The switch to renewable energy is well underway, and picking up pace

Altogether, clean energy sources like hydro, rooftop solar, and solar and wind farms are already supplying 40 percent of the electricity in the national grid annually. In the right conditions, they provide even more – at one point on 11 October this year, 79% of our electricity came from renewables! 

Aussie households are generating a lot of this clean power, with millions of families simultaneously cutting their power bills and climate pollution by putting solar on the roof. In early 2025, rooftop solar was contributing nearly 15% of the electricity in our national grid – more than large-scale solar, wind or gas.  In South Australia, rooftop solar has met more than 100% of demand at certain times over the past year.

Households, businesses and investors alike are embracing renewable energy because it’s affordable, clean and can be rolled out fast. AEMO says accelerating the build out of clean wind and solar – backed by storage – is the lowest cost energy plan for Australia.

Australia is not alone in the shift to renewables: Investors around the world favour renewable energy and supporting technologies over fossil fuels. Globally in 2024, renewable generation received three times as much investment as coal did. In the first half of 2025 and for the first time, more of the world’s energy was delivered by renewables than by coal. 

2. Coal is making a quick exit, so we need to build new capacity ASAP 

Australia’s coal-fired electricity generators are retiring. Those that are left are ageing, unreliable and expensive to maintain and run around-the-clock. They are frequently taken offline to deal with breakdowns and maintenance outages, which puts pressure on the rest of our power grid. 

AEMO is preparing for two-thirds of Australia’s coal-fired generators to close by 2035 so we’re in a race against the clock to get replacement power online before this happens. The roadmap confirms that a combination of rooftop solar and community batteries, together with large-scale wind, solar and storage, is our best and most affordable option to keep powering Australia past the end of coal. 

As we phase out climate pollution in more places like transport and industry, the roadmap confirms we’ll also need more electricity in the future. Under the scenario that AEMO considers most likely, Australia’s electricity demand will double by 2050, as we use more electric vehicles, switch out gas in homes and businesses for electric alternatives, and as our green exports industries expand. 

While we’re making great progress, there is still a lot more to do – which is why AEMO says we need to step on the accelerator. 

Learn about how our ageing coal generators are ramping up blackout risks and power prices.

3. Clean energy backed by storage and firming is the lowest-cost way to power our homes and businesses

AEMO modelled thousands of different scenarios, and consulted with more than 1,400 organisations and experts to determine the lowest-cost way to supply reliable, affordable and clean electricity to Australians while cutting climate pollution. The result? Renewables, backed by storage. This is because solar and wind projects are quick to build, cheap to run, and most importantly, the sun and wind are freely available forever! This not only keeps electricity affordable, it protects Australians against international price shocks caused by volatility in the coal, oil and gas markets. 

Even with the supporting technologies needed for renewables – like transmission and storage – they are the lowest-cost option. In fact, building more transmission can deliver more than $20 billion in benefits for Australians.

4. More Aussies will directly benefit from rooftop solar

The roadmap shows that more and more of our electricity needs will be met by everyday Australians taking their power bills into their own hands with rooftop solar, as well as household or community batteries.

Already, 40% of households in Australia’s main grid have rooftop solar, and this is expected to grow to nearly 50% over the next decade. More and more Aussies will also pair their rooftop solar with household batteries as they become cheaper. AEMO expects the amount of electricity that everyday Australians make and use to increase from around ten percent today to more than  a third of Australia’s energy needs by 2050, even as electricity consumption doubles.

Read more about the benefits of rooftop solar in our report Seize the Sun: How to supercharge Australia’s rooftop solar

5. Batteries and pumped hydro will keep our grid reliable, with gas playing a limited role

Different types of renewable energy, like wind and solar, complement each other to provide power around the clock. Our energy system will also store energy up at times when it’s abundant through large- and small-scale batteries and pumped hydro, to make it available later on when we need it. In other words, just as it doesn’t rain all the time but we can access water whenever we want, AEMO’s roadmap confirms that a mix of solar, wind, hydro and storage can power our homes, industry and businesses 24/7.    

Gas is a polluting fossil fuel which can be just as bad for the climate as coal.  As we shift to renewables, expensive gas will only be used to generate electricity at the rare times that other sources aren’t available. Gas is often the most expensive source of energy in the market today, with high prices for this fossil fuel globally playing a big part in driving up household power bills over the past few years.

Find out more about how batteries are supporting our renewable grid in Battery Boom: Supercharging Australia’s Renewable Rollout

6. We need to do more to unlock the benefits of renewables for Australians

While momentum is building, challenges remain in delivering essential infrastructure at the pace required. To meet our climate and energy targets and maximise the benefits for Australians, we need to address the barriers to the renewable energy rollout, including:

• Ensuring the supply chain for critical energy assets and workforces is secured.
• Maintaining investment certainty with targets and policies that support energy infrastructure and investment. 
• Ensuring our power system is ready for 100% renewables with technologies to ensure a smooth transition and deliver a secure and reliable energy system. 
• Coordinating household solar and storage, so that power is available when it’s needed most, cutting costs for all Australians.
• Building social licence through community engagement, benefit sharing and clear roles.
• Streamlining and enhancing planning and environmental approval processes for infrastructure.

So, what’s the bottom line?

The experts at AEMO say renewable energy from the sun and wind, backed by storage, is the best way to power Australia in the coming decades. 

Not only is it our lowest-cost option, it’s also the most reliable and our best bet for getting replacement power online before more coal generators close down. The roadmap underscores that we’re well on the way to building the clean energy system we need. 

Australia should stick to the path we’re already on, and accelerate our progress, to deliver a reliable and affordable energy system that can cleanly power Australia for generations to come

The post An Aussie Roadmap: building a clean, reliable and low-cost electricity grid appeared first on Climate Council.

The five reasons a Coalition deal on environment law would fail on climate:

1. Climate accountability gutted: climate impacts would be completely ignored in approval decisions – even though climate change is the greatest threat to Australia’s environment. 
2. Free pass for polluting fossil fuel projects: By rejecting any inclusion of climate, the Coalition’s approach effectively gives new coal and gas developments a free ride through approvals. Under this deal, mega-polluting fossil fuel projects would continue to be approved unchecked by climate considerations and no guardrails would be put in place to prevent the fast-tracking of fossil fuels. 
3. Undermines an independent EPA reducing accountability of project impacts.
4. Dilutes key guardrails and safeguards designed to protect our environment: including the ‘net gain’ and definition of ‘unacceptable impact’, that are crucial to stopping irreparable environmental damage and ensuring developments leave nature better off.
5. Fails to fix logging loopholes and land clearing exemptions that are currently contributing to the destruction of our native forests and critical habitat.

In contrast to the Coalition, the Greens’ key demands have been reported as:

• A strong, independent EPA
• An end to native forest logging – such as closing existing loopholes
• Adequate protections for critical habitat, including from land clearing
• Consideration of climate impacts to some degree (even if a ‘climate trigger’ is off the table)
• No fast-tracks for polluting coal or gas projects
• No wholesale handover to states of approvals – including the water trigger

Rapid analysis of Coalition deal

Watering down climate pollution information provided by companies and the requirement for companies to make plans to reduce climate pollution

Climate accountability gutted: A Coalition deal would explicitly exclude emissions disclosure and consideration of direct climate pollution from projects. This would represent an abject failure to address climate change or climate harms in any way, and risk undermining Australia’s climate targets, policies like the Safeguard Mechanism and Australia’s international commitments.

Emissions disclosure requirements and plans to reduce pollution would either be gutted completely, or left toothless – in direct contradiction to the recommendations of the Samuel Review of the EPBC Act, which recommended disclosure of “the full emissions of the development”.

This would leave our national environment law completely out of step with existing emissions disclosure requirements (that include Scope 3) in many states i.e. Environmental assessments in both New South Wales and Queensland, Environmental assessments from the Federal offshore oil and gas regulator NOPSEMA, and the Albanese Government’s own climate-related financial disclosure framework.

Fossil fuel projects given a free pass: By rejecting climate safeguards, the Coalition’s approach effectively gives new coal and gas developments a free ride through approvals. There would be no obligation to assess whether a proposed mine or gas field undermines Australia’s climate targets, nor any ban on fast‑tracking polluting projects

No guardrails against fast tracking of fossil fuels

There are currently several approval pathways in the bill that could inadvertently enable this – such as the streamlined assessment pathway, the bioregional plans, state accreditation pathways and NOPSEMA. A deal with the Coalition doesn’t set any guardrails at all to ensure polluting coal and gas projects aren’t fast-tracked, alongside the environmentally responsible clean energy and housing projects Australia needs.

The Minister retaining responsibilities, particularly around the assessment and approval of projects, and weakening the EPA’s ability to enforce the rules

Undermining an independent EPA: A core Coalition condition is to weaken the new independent Environmental Protection Agency. They want to extend political control over the EPA’s leadership – for example, by giving the minister power to sack the EPA’s CEO. This undermines the whole point of an independent watchdog. Effective oversight requires a strong, arms-length EPA. The new EPA must be free to enforce the rules without fear of political interference, otherwise environmental protections will be hollow.

Reinstating streamlined approval pathways that industries are demanding

This prioritises approval pathways and efficiency for business and industries over environmental protection.

It is noteworthy that the Coalition supports the creation of more approval pathways, when this law is supposed to reduce complexity and avoid duplication. 

This is about industry trying to have a foot in both camps: if the fast lane doesn’t work for them, then they want to keep a back door open.

Redefining or watering down the “unacceptable impact” safeguard

Dilution of the ‘unacceptable impact’ safeguard: The reforms propose a new test to block projects that would cause “unacceptable impacts” on protected matters – a crucial safeguard to stop irreparable environmental damage. The Coalition appears to be attempting to water this down by weakening the definition or making it easier for decision-makers to bypass. 

This test needs to be strong and objective, not weaker: it should clearly condition or prevent projects that would irreversibly harm critical ecosystems or drive species extinctions.

Redefining or diluting the concept of “net gain”

The Coalition also objects to provisions requiring developments to leave nature better off. Notably, they oppose the “net gain” requirement – a rule that any environmental damage from a project must be more than offset by repairs or improvements elsewhere.

If this requirement is watered down or scrapped, companies could tick a box with token efforts that don’t actually make up for the harm done. The result? Big projects go ahead, while our wildlife and ecosystems continue to decline.

Weaker penalties

A watered down penalty regime: Reduced accountability and compliance – letting industries/projects that break the rules or cause environmental damage off lighter by reducing penalties.

Nothing on the table regarding native forest logging, or land clearing

A deal with the Coalition would leave a gaping hole in the law by keeping native forest logging exempt from federal oversight. Right now, logging conducted under Regional Forest Agreements (RFAs) isn’t subject to the EPBC Act at all – and the Coalition is not prepared to change that. This means destructive logging of our native forest could continue without meeting national environmental standards or scrutiny by the new EPA. 

This decades-old loophole must be closed to protect wildlife and carbon-rich forests. A deal with the Coalition would perpetuate business-as-usual logging, undermining the credibility of any “once-in-a-generation” reform. Graeme Samuel himself strongly critiqued these exemptions for forestry, describing them as “untenable loopholes” in the context of strengthening Australia’s environmental laws. The deal also preserves a free pass for continued land clearing – exactly the kind of loophole that has contributed to Australia’s nature emergency.

Learn more about the Government’s proposed environment law reforms here.

The post Five reasons why a Coalition deal on environment law would fail on climate appeared first on Climate Council.

Importantly, countries agreed to work together to hold ‘the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels’ and pursue efforts ‘to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C.’

Every national government must now establish a clear plan to reach net zero emissions with regularly updated targets to cut climate pollution.

As governments converge once more at the United Nations Climate Conference, this time, COP30 in Belém, Brazil, some are asking what have we achieved to combat climate change? 

The past three years have been the hottest on record, climate disasters have slammed every continent this year and climate pollution from coal, oil and gas continues to rise.  

10 years after Paris, it’s worth taking stock of where we are at, how much the world has achieved, and the task ahead.  

We’ve made substantial progress in the global shift to clean energy

Pollution from coal, oil and gas continues to rise, but much more slowly

In 2023, the international community agreed to switch away from fossil fuels, finally formally acknowledging the contribution of coal, oil and gas to global warming.

This agreement was labelled the ‘beginning of the end’ for fossil fuels globally. While we still have a long way to go, the global energy mix is shifting away from coal, oil and gas:

• Global emissions are slowing: the latest data shows that we are burning more fossil fuels than ever and emissions continue to climb, but the rate of growth has dropped from 2% per year to 0.6% per year. 
• The world’s biggest polluter’s emissions have peaked: China’s emissions are already peaking, five years ahead of previous projections.
• Countries are phasing out coal: this year, Ireland became the eighth country to phase out coal generation since the Paris Agreement was signed. Many more have committed to becoming coal-free over the coming years, including nearly the entire European Union.
• More countries are committing to get off coal, oil and gas: Pacific Island Nations are leading a diplomatic campaign for a global phase out of coal, oil and gas, calling for a Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty. In addition, 62 countries led by the UK and Canada have pledged to phase out unabated coal generation completely through the Powering Past Coal Alliance.

Clean energy is transforming the world

The global energy transformation is gathering speed: low-emissions energy sources (including wind, solar, hydropower and nuclear) now generate more than 40% of the world’s electricity, compared to 33% in 2015. 

Clean energy is smashing records:

• 2025 saw a significant milestone: in the first six months of 2025 the world generated more power from solar and wind than from coal.
• Record-breaking renewable rollout: Global renewable electricity generation is expected to nearly double by 2030 – enough new renewable generation to meet the combined power demand of China and the US.
• Solar is booming: ​​It took eight years for the world’s solar capacity to go from 100 TWh to 1,000 TWh, then just three years to double to 2,000 TWh. Solar prices have dropped 66% in the past decade, becoming the cheapest form of power in history.
• Investment in clean energy has increased 10x: Investment in clean energy has grown from around US$230 billion in 2013, to $2.2 trillion in 2025 (equivalent to AU $3.4 trillion – twice as much as global investment in coal, oil and gas). 
• China: The world’s biggest polluter, China, is transforming into a clean energy juggernaut. 
• Cleaning up transport: One in five cars sold worldwide is now electric, compared to just 1% in 2015.

Read more in our report Power Shift: The US, China and the Race to Net Zero

Net zero is the global minimum

When the Paris Agreement was signed in 2015 no countries had formal net zero targets. Now, 

83% of the global economy has a net zero target. Analysis shows that climate targets are becoming more robust over time, covering more sectors and gases. The majority of countries also have targets to increase renewable generation.

The Paris Agreement aims to reach peak global greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible, reaching net zero by the second half of this century. If all countries follow through on their commitments, global emissions are expected to peak by 2030. However, to limit global heating to 1.5°C without overshoot, global climate pollution needed to peak this year, at the latest, and fall by 43% on 2019 levels by 2030. 

But global temperature is rising, and so are the impacts

We are already living in a hotter and more dangerous world, fuelled by climate pollution from coal, oil and gas. Today we are at 1.3°C of global warming, and the past three years have been the hottest on record. 

In 2015, the world was on a catastrophic path to an average global temperature increase of 4°C by the end of this century. Now, according to the latest official data, we are tracking towards 2.3 – 2.5°C, if countries reach their targets. 

This is a more dangerous future, and still falls far short of what is needed. Global warming of 1.5°C is considered the upper limit of what vulnerable communities, coral reefs, and many ecosystems can withstand. Science is clear that crossing the 1.5°C threshold increases the risk of triggering irreversible and cascading climate impacts. Transformative action, delivered urgently, is needed to limit how much and for how long we overshoot this threshold, and to bring temperatures back down to safer levels.

The only way to do so is by cutting pollution from coal, oil and gas further and faster than we are today, in all the places we can do so.

With almost half the world’s population already vulnerable to the effects of climate change, global work to adapt, build resilience and deal with loss and damage caused by climate-driven disasters is critical. The Paris Agreement set a Global Goal on Adaptation to increase countries’ efforts to prepare for and manage the impacts of climate disasters. In 2023 countries agreed to an adaptation framework, and a key focus of COP30 in Belém is to establish indicators to measure this progress.

The international community has also established a new Loss and Damage fund, and as of June this year, 27 countries had pledged more than AU$1.2 billion. This represents a small fraction of the estimated economic costs of climate change-induced loss and damage in developing countries of up to $AU800 billion in 2030, rising to up to 2.6 trillion by 2050.

We need to do so much more – and Australia has a key role to play

Australia is a major climate polluter: we are the world’s 10th largest polluter on a per person basis, and one of the largest fossil fuel exporters. So we have an important role to play at home, and abroad. With the right policies, Australia can contribute to global goals while growing our own economy and creating skilled jobs. 

Powering past our climate targets

Under the Paris Agreement, the Albanese Government has pledged to cut climate pollution 43% by 2030, 62-70% below 2005 levels by 2035 and reach net zero by 2050. 

Our analysis shows we can, and should, be doing much more to keep Australians safer. Read more about our analysis of Australia’s target and temperature rise scenarios

To keep Australians safer from worsening climate harm, and unlock Australia’s economic opportunity, the Australian Government should put in place policies to not just meet a 70% reduction, but power past it. 

Growing green export industries

Australia also has a significant opportunity in the global shift to renewables. By making use of our abundant renewable resources and critical minerals we can support global decarbonisation while boosting our own economy and creating skilled jobs in future-focused export industries. Australia’s green export opportunity could create over 400,000 jobs by 2040, growing the economy by $100 billion per year. 

Phasing out fossil fuels

We must also deal with polluting fossil fuels. We can start by stopping approvals of new and expanded fossil fuel projects. At the moment our environment law doesn’t include any mechanism to consider the climate impacts of such projects on our environment.

The Government has approved seven coal and gas projects this year alone, and 32 since forming government in 2022. Another 42 are waiting to be assessed.

The Albanese Government can still deliver credible environment laws that protect the places we love from climate harm, and don’t undermine our climate laws and policies.

Find out how Australia’s national environment law measures up on climate, and how we can fix this.

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Australia’s Prime Minister Anthony Albanese sought to strengthen security ties with Pacific island nations and counter China’s growing influence during a trip to the region this week. If he walks away with one lesson, it’s that Australia’s climate policy remains a significant sticking point.

The main purpose of Albanese’s visit was to attend annual leaders’ talks known as the Pacific Islands Forum. On the way, Albanese stopped in Vanuatu hoping to sign a security agreement – but he couldn’t ink the deal.

I am in the Solomon Islands this week to observe the talks. I saw firsthand that Australia clearly has its work cut out in its quest to lead regional security – and our climate credibility is key.

Pacific countries say unequivocally that climate change – which is bringing stronger cyclones, coastal inundation and bleached coral reefs – is their single greatest threat. If Australia’s geo-strategic jostling is to work, we must show serious commitment to curbing the dangers of a warming planet.

Australia’s strategy tested in the Solomons

The location of this year’s talks – Solomon Islands’ capital, Honiara – is a stark reminder of Australia’s geopolitical stakes amid rising Chinese influence in the region.

The Solomon Islands signed a security deal with China in 2022, which set alarm bells ringing in Canberra. Penny Wong – then opposition foreign minister – described it as the worst failure of Australian foreign policy in the Pacific since World War II.

Since then, the Albanese government has sought to firm up Australia’s place as security partner for Pacific countries by pursuing bilateral security agreements with island nations. So far, it has completed deals with Tuvalu, Papua New Guinea and Nauru.

On his way to the Solomon Islands, Albanese stopped in Vanuatu hoping to sign a security agreement which reportedly included A$500 million over ten years to address worsening climate impacts. But that deal was postponed. Members of Vanuatu’s coalition government were reportedly concerned about wording that could limit infrastructure funding from other countries, including China.

Albanese had more success in Honiara, where he advanced talks with Fiji’s Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabuka for a new bilateral security pact.

Working with island nations to tackle climate change has become key to Australian strategy in the region. This week Albanese also joined Pacific leaders to ratify a regional fund intended to help island communities access international finance to help adapt to climate impacts. Australia has already pledged $100 million for the project, known as the Pacific Resilience Facility.

Australia is bidding to host the COP31 United Nations climate talks in partnership with Pacific countries in 2026. Pacific leaders formally restated support for Australia’s bid this week.

Palau President Surangel Whipps Jr said an Australia-Pacific COP had broad support from the rest of the world:

We deserve to host COP31, and given the breadth and depth of support, it would be seen as an act of good faith if others would clear the way. We don’t want to let this major international opportunity slip by us.

Whipps also championed an initiative for the Pacific to become the world’s first region to be powered 100% by renewable energy.

Pacific Island countries spend up to 25% of their GDP on importing fossil fuels for power generation and transport. As the costs of renewable energy and battery storage quickly fall, Pacific countries could save billions of dollars by making the clean energy shift.

Albanese this week appeared to acknowledge regional concerns about climate change, saying taking action was “the entry fee, if you like, to credibility in the Pacific”.

But the real test is whether Albanese can follow words with meaningful action.

The work starts at home

Albanese’s Pacific visit comes amid heightened scrutiny of Australia’s efforts to curb emissions.

The government must set Australia’s 2035 emissions reduction target this month. The latest reports suggest the commitment may be less ambitious than Pacific leaders, and many others, would like.

Pacific leaders also expect Albanese to curb fossil fuel production for export. Australia’s biggest contribution to climate change comes from coal and gas exports, which add more than double the climate pollution of Australia’s entire national economy.

However, in coming days the federal government is expected to approve Woodside’s extension of gas production at the Northwest Shelf facility off Western Australia, out to 2070. The decision could lock in more than 4 billion tonnes of climate pollution – equivalent to a decade of Australia’s annual emissions.

All this comes in the wake of a landmark legal ruling in July this year, when the International Court of Justice (ICJ) issued an advisory opinion confirming countries have legal responsibilities for climate harms caused by fossil fuel exports.

Vanuatu led the legal campaign. In Honiara this week, Vanuatu’s climate minister Ralph Regenvanu reiterated that Australia must heed the ruling, saying:

The advisory opinion of the ICJ made it clear that going down the path of fossil fuel production expansion is an internationally wrongful act under international law. The argument Australia has been making that the domestic transition is sufficient under the Paris Agreement is untenable. You’ve got to deal with fossil fuel exports as well.

Albanese may have taken on board some of the Pacific’s concern about climate – and made a little progress at this week’s Pacific Islands Forum. But there is work to do if Australia is to be seen as a credible security partner in the Pacific – and that work starts at home.

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Since then, Australia has faced catastrophic floods, bushfires, droughts, and heatwaves—underscoring the urgent need for better climate risk data.

Soon, the Australian Government will release the National Climate Risk Assessment—the first comprehensive analysis of how climate change will affect Australian communities throughout this century.

In the meantime, here are three things we can expect from the report—and three priorities the Albanese Government must focus on.

1. Serious climate impacts are hurting Australians now and could get worse

In the first half of 2025, Australia faced a cascade of climate disasters: repeated flooding in Queensland and NSW, a tropical cyclone near northern NSW, record marine heatwaves devastating reefs in WA and Queensland, and severe drought in parts of Victoria, SA and Tasmania—leaving farmland parched and fire-prone. These events, driven by climate change, have already cost over $1.8 billion, excluding uninsured losses.

Australians are seeing these events grow more frequent and extreme, but the full picture remains hard to grasp. That’s why the National Climate Risk Assessment is crucial—it will, for the first time, provide a comprehensive overview of how climate change is impacting our lives, now and into the future. It will show that we must act now to cut climate pollution and make our communities more resilient to lessen the disaster impacts we face in the future. 

The initial findings already highlight alarming risks across 11 key systems, including Defence, Regional Communities, and Health. It warns that increasingly severe and overlapping disasters will have far-reaching effects:

• Emergency services and volunteers will be stretched beyond capacity.
• Rural communities will face more climate-driven crises, with rising physical and mental health impacts.
• Inadequate infrastructure could force community displacement over time.

2. Urgent cuts to climate pollution are needed – in Australia and across the globe –  to avoid the worst impacts of climate change

The National Climate Risk Assessment will outline how climate impacts escalate with rising global temperatures. The report will show how climate change is already impacting us at a 1.51°C of warming, and the consequences of reaching 2°C by 2050 and 3°C by century’s end—the path we’re currently on.

At 2°C, Australia will face more dangerous fire weather, longer fire seasons, intense rainfall, and more frequent, deadly heatwaves—putting more communities and livelihoods at risk. Forests in the southeast of Australia – an area heavily impacted by Black Summer – would see a 47% increase in extreme fire weather. Over 750,000 properties would be uninsurable due to climate risks by 2050, an increase of 170,000 from 1990.

At 3°C, the consequences are dire: twice as many catastrophic fire weather days and regular 50°C temperatures in cities like Sydney and Melbourne. A sea level rise of one-metre would put 160,000 to 250,000 properties at risk of coastal flooding. Almost 1 in 10 (8.8%) of households would be uninsurable due to the climate risks they experience. 

In short, without sufficient action to cut emissions, Australians will see dramatically escalating climate risks. Industries like fisheries, tourism and agriculture will experience catastrophic impacts and many communities who now face medium risks of extreme weather today will likely be unliveable.

3. The National Climate Risk Assessment will provide the information emergency responders, businesses, and communities need to prepare for future disasters

Nearly five years ago, the Royal Commission into National Natural Disaster Arrangements, prompted by the Black Summer bushfires, highlighted the lack of a single, comprehensive source of climate risk information. This gap made it harder for governments, emergency services, and communities to plan for escalating climate threats. Despite the recommendations, the Morrison government failed to act.

More recently, the Independent Review of the Australian Climate Service found widespread confusion among decision-makers about where to access reliable climate data. It also confirmed that improving Australians’ understanding of climate risks is critical to building our national resilience, especially in terms of skills and adaptation capacity.

The National Climate Risk Assessment aims to fill this gap—giving decision-makers and communities the information they need to understand how climate change will affect lives and livelihoods in the decades ahead. Importantly, the Federal Government will also release an interactive web tool allowing all Australians to explore climate impacts in their local areas by 2050 and 2090.

Three things Emergency Leaders for Climate Action want to see

1. Fossil fuels are driving climate disasters—and Australians deserve to know

The worsening climate disasters in Australia and around the world are being driven by one key factor: the continued burning of fossil fuels—coal, oil, and gas. Since 1910, Australia’s average temperature has risen by 1.51°C, and this hotter atmosphere is fuelling more frequent, intense, and destructive extreme weather events—posing increasing danger to lives, communities, and ecosystems.

Research has now directly linked emissions from major fossil fuel companies like Chevron, ExxonMobil, and BP to the climate impacts we’re experiencing. Combined, emissions from these three companies alone have reportedly caused $5.34 trillion in global economic losses due to climate-fuelled extreme heat.

As the social, environmental, and economic toll of climate disasters grows, Australians have a right to understand what’s driving their climate risk. Reports like the National Climate Risk Assessment must clearly show how continued reliance on coal, oil, and gas is accelerating global warming—and endangering us all.

2. An assessment of the communities that face the greatest climate risks and targeted climate adaptation plan with a framework to protect them

While climate change affects everyone, some communities are facing its impacts far more often and severely. Analysis by Emergency Leaders for Climate Action found that 15 local government areas—including parts of eastern Victoria, NSW’s mid-north coast, and northern and outback Queensland—have required federal disaster recovery assistance at least 25 times since 2006–07.

Alongside the National Climate Risk Assessment, the Federal Government will release a National Adaptation Plan to help prepare for worsening climate impacts. It’s a critical task—climate-fuelled disasters are already costing billions and hitting vulnerable communities hardest, with risks only set to increase. It will include actions the Federal Government will take across the 11 key systems identified in the National Climate Risk Assessment. 

To be effective, the Adaptation Plan must be fully funded and strategic—addressing the climate impacts communities will face now and see at 2°C by 2050 and 3°C by 2100. At the same time, it should include actions to boost household resilience to climate threats across the country. This could build on the work already being done in Queensland and New South Wales to make homes in high-risk areas more resilient to cyclones and floods respectively.

There will also be instances where the safest thing to do is move people out of harm’s way, relocating homes and communities where the climate risks are too great. The Adaptation plan should outline steps the Federal Government can take to support relocation as climate fuelled disasters become more frequent and severe in the coming years.

3. Action from Government to better protect communities from climate pollution

The Albanese Government will soon decide on Australia’s 2035 climate target. Our leaders will make this choice knowing full well the repercussions of failing to substantially cut climate pollution. 

The safest path is for all countries to set the strongest possible 2035 climate target – and for Australia that means net zero by 2035 or as close to it as possible. Every fraction of a degree of warming matters and will be measured in lives and livelihoods saved, fewer families forced from their homes and less strain on our already stretched emergency services. 

The National Climate Risk Assessment will make it clear: we must act urgently to cut climate pollution to better protect Australians from escalating climate risks. At the same time, we must also prepare our communities, businesses and emergency services for the climate-fuelled disasters we will experience in the coming years due to the historic burning of fossil fuels. Every dollar spent on adaptation and disaster risk reduction will save us between $2 and $11 in avoided recovery costs. 

Author: Greg Mullins AO AFSM, founder of Emergency Leader for Climate Action

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For Pacific nations, climate change isn’t a distant risk – it’s an existential threat, here and now. People from Pacific nations are already relocating to Australia, after losing their homes to rising sea levels and extreme weather fuelled by the burning of fossil fuels. With Australia bidding to co-host the UN climate summit (COP31) alongside Pacific nations in 2026, what happens at this year’s PIF will be crucial for securing genuine collaboration with Pacific nations, and for our region’s commitment to tackling climate change. 

Why is Australia attending the Pacific Islands Forum?

Australia is a founding member of the Pacific Islands Forum, and works closely with Pacific nations to advance their priorities. Australia is the region’s largest development partner, and plays a significant role in aid, security and economic cooperation. 

Australia has a strong interest in remaining the region’s main development partner and security partner of choice. However, in the words of Australia’s Foreign Minister, we are now in a state of “permanent contest” for this position (Wong 2024). 

But at the end of the day, Australia’s credibility in the region ultimately hinges on our climate action at home. Pacific leaders have been clear: unless Australia tackles the region’s greatest security threat – climate change – it cannot be seen as a genuine partner.

With COP31 on the horizon, the Pacific Islands Forum is a chance for Australia and Pacific nations to show the world what working together can achieve, strengthening our region’s security as well as our shared future.

How is climate change affecting the Pacific?

Climate change is a shared threat for Australia and countries in our region. From the Solomon Islands to Sydney, communities are being pushed to their limits by worsening heat, bushfires, floods, storms and rising seas. 

In the Pacific Islands, accelerating sea level rise, increasingly destructive cyclones, and damage to the marine ecosystems upon which their livelihoods and economies depend, are all issues being faced today.

While they are some of the most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, Pacific island countries have helped shape global climate action for nearly 50 years. Pacific island leaders have worked tirelessly to ensure that global efforts align with what the science tells us is necessary for their countries’ survival. They have earned a reputation for punching above their weight in global climate action and were instrumental in securing landmark global deals like the Kyoto Protocol and Paris Agreement. 

Today, Pacific Island countries are leading a diplomatic campaign for a global phase out of coal, oil and gas, calling for a Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty. The World Health Organization, European Parliament and thousands of others have already backed the proposal. And, earlier this year, in a case driven by Vanuatu students, the International Court of Justice declared that tackling climate change is a legal obligation for all nations. These moves show how Pacific nations are shaping global rules, and raising expectations for countries like Australia to follow through.

What is COP31 and what does it have to do with the Pacific Islands Forum?

COP31 is shorthand for the 31st “Conference of the Parties” to the United Nations climate treaty – the world’s biggest climate meeting, where governments from around the world negotiate how they will cut pollution and adapt to the impacts of climate change.

Australia is currently bidding to co-host COP31 in 2026 alongside Pacific nations. The United Nations will make a decision on next year’s host in the coming months. If successful, it will be the largest diplomatic event ever held in Australia and a defining moment for our region.

The Pacific Islands Forum is directly linked to Australia’s bid to co-host COP31. It’s where Pacific leaders can set shared priorities ahead of COP31, ensuring the summit reflects the voices and leadership of the Pacific. For Australia, how we show up at PIF will shape whether we’re seen as a genuine partner in the lead up to COP31.

What do Pacific leaders want to see from Australia?

Pacific leaders are watching closely as Australia sets our 2035 climate target, and they’re calling on the Australian Government to stop approving new polluting fossil fuel projects that are making the climate crisis worse.

If Australia wants to be seen as a credible partner in the region, we need to set the strongest possible 2035 climate target, back it with credible plans and real investment, and commit to phasing out fossil fuels at home. Anything below a 75% cut is not considered credible by Pacific leaders.

Co-hosting the 2026 UN climate talks is a chance for Australia and Pacific nations to show the world what working together can achieve, strengthening our region’s security as well as our shared future.

The post Why the Pacific Islands Forum matters for Australia, and for climate action appeared first on Climate Council.

Under the Paris Agreement, countries are required to submit increasingly strong targets every five years, enabling them to “ratchet up” (or ramp up) their effort over time to cut climate pollution. 

National targets need to be backed by plans and policies to allow those planned reductions to be achieved. 

This year marks a critical moment for our climate future. Under the Paris Agreement, nations are required to submit new 2035 climate targets. Collectively, these targets must slash global climate pollution fast enough to keep temperatures within internationally agreed limits designed to prevent catastrophic harm to people and ecosystems.

The central goal of the Paris Agreement is “holding the increase in the global average  temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels” and pursuing efforts “to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.”

Australia’s 2035 climate target is an opportunity to set Australia on the right path, one which keeps our kids safer from the impacts of climate change and sets our economy up for success in a fossil fuel-free world. Climate Council’s report, Stronger Target, Safer Future: Why Australia’s 2035 Climate Target Matters, provides a framework for setting the strongest possible targets.

Securing a safer future means hitting the brakes on accelerating climate change

Climate science is clear: humanity is now releasing huge volumes of heat-trapping greenhouse gases into our atmosphere, primarily from the burning of coal, oil, and gas. This layer of gas acts like a blanket, trapping more heat every year. That heat fuels worsening extreme weather events and is dramatically damaging the ecological systems that sustain human life. In other words, we are living through a climate crisis.

In the future, the scale and severity of the climate crisis will depend on:

• How quickly we cut climate pollution; and 
• How much global temperatures rise as a result.

Every fraction of a degree of global temperature rise leads to more frequent and ferocious extreme weather events, ecosystem damage, and impacts on lives around the world. On the other hand, avoiding even a fraction of a degree of global heating is extremely significant in reducing risks to communities worldwide. 

Global average temperature rise is now 1.3°C above the pre-industrial average and, in 2024, global average temperatures hit 1.6°C over a full year, breaking through 1.5°C for the first time. Importantly, these temperature thresholds cannot be breached in a single year – climate science, and the Paris Agreement, take a longer-term view of global average temperature over decades. But this is a clear warning sign that we are moving closer and closer to exceeding the 1.5°C temperature threshold. 

We are currently on a trajectory towards drastic global temperature rise and catastrophic climate impacts that could undermine the foundations of our society, prosperity, and security. Swift action to slash climate pollution from the burning of coal, oil and gas is the only solution which can protect those most vulnerable to the catastrophic impacts.

“Climate history is playing out before our eyes. We’ve had not just one or two record-breaking years, but a full 10-year series. This has been accompanied by devastating and extreme weather, rising sea levels and melting ice, all powered by record-breaking greenhouse gas levels due to human activities.” – WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo. 

The rate of global warming is now 0.27°C per decade and, without urgent efforts to cut climate pollution, we will overshoot the Paris Agreement’s goal of holding warming well below 2ºC in less than two decades. Climate change is accelerating and the risks are escalating at a much quicker pace than we previously thought.

The UN’s latest assessment concluded that the “current national climate plans fall miles short of what’s needed to stop global heating from crippling every economy, and wrecking billions of lives and livelihoods across every country”. 

It is in this context that countries are required to submit their 2035 target under the Paris Agreement later this year.

What climate target should Australia commit to?

Australia will submit our new 2035 climate target, a Nationally Determined Contribution, under the Paris Agreement this year. The current target, to reduce Australia’s climate pollution 43% on 2005 levels by 2030, was legislated in 2022.

The Climate Change Authority has been charged with providing advice to the Australian Government on setting and achieving its 2035 target. This advice is expected to be shared imminently. In 2024, the Authority released an issues paper, ‘Targets, Pathways and Progress’, which considered a target range of 65-75% below 2005 levels by 2035.

In anticipation of this advice being provided to the Australian Government, Climate Council commissioned Climate Resource to assess the global warming implications of an Australian 2035 climate target. The analysis uses the latest emissions data and shows what an Australian target means for global average temperature risk.

This new analysis shows the only Australian target that’s compatible with holding global warming below 2°C is net zero by 2035. The closer the Australian Government’s 2035 climate target gets to net zero, the less climate risk Australians face. 

The analysis also shows that a 2035 climate target of -75% or more (on 2005 levels) is aligned with more than 2°C of global heating, but likely less than 2.3°C*. Weaker targets are aligned with even higher levels of global heating. Each fraction of a degree of global heating is associated with more catastrophic impacts to communities and ecosystems. A -65% target is aligned with below 2.4°C of global heating.

The Australian Government must set the strongest possible 2035 climate target. A stronger target will keep Australians safer. A weaker target risks more disasters, more damage and more danger.

Climate consequences if the world fails to set strong targets

As our climate has warmed, Australia has been being hit hard. Where long-term global warming is currently about 1.3°C above pre-industrial levels, Australia has warmed by an average of around 1.51°C since national records began in 1910.

This increase in temperature is fuelling more frequent and intense extreme weather events, including extreme heat, heavy rainfall, coastal inundation, dangerous bushfire weather and drought. Many communities have now experienced back-to-back disasters that would have previously been considered a 1-in-50 or 1-in-100 year weather event. 

The IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C (IPCC 2018) shows the risks for both human and natural systems are lower if global temperature rise stabilises at 1.5°C. There are substantial increases in extreme weather events (e.g. extreme heat, heavy precipitation events and drought) between 1.5°C and 2°C. Impacts on land-based biodiversity and ecosystems are less at 1.5°C than 2°C, but overshooting the 1.5°C target could have irreversible impacts on some species and ecosystems. 

Climate change is accelerating, and current global efforts – including Australia’s – are dangerously inadequate. The future scale and severity of the climate crisis will depend on how quickly and deeply we slash global climate pollution. Each fraction of a degree of global heating is associated with more catastrophic impacts to communities and ecosystems.

For more information see our Stronger Target, Safer Future: Why Australia’s 2035 Climate Target Matters report.

Climate Council has launched a petition calling on the Australian Government to set the strongest possible 2035 climate target – and take urgent action to meet it!

*Assuming other countries adopt the same per-capita share of the global carbon budget.

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The Albanese Labor Government’s imminent decision on Australia’s 2035 climate target will shape the lives of every Australian. Climate Council’s latest report, Stronger Target, Safer Future: Why Australia’s 2035 Climate Target Matters, warns the safety, security and prosperity of our communities and environment is at stake as the government finalises their decision.

The science is clear. To do our fair share to hold global warming to well below 2°C, Australia needs to reduce climate pollution to 75% below 2005 levels by 2030, and reach net zero by 2035. Every fraction of a degree of warming avoided matters. While some climate impacts are getting progressively worse, like heatwaves or bushfire risk, beyond 2°C scientists warn that we will see abrupt, irreversible changes or tipping points that supercharge global warming and cause widespread system collapse, like:

• The loss of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, leading to multi-metre sea level rise.
• Frozen soils in the Arctic melt, releasing vast quantities of heat-trapping gases. 
• The Amazon rainforest experiences massive dieback – where plants die off en masse – releasing huge volumes of heat-trapping gases.

Why is Australia setting a 2035 climate target?

The Paris Agreement, adopted by 195 countries in 2015, represents the world’s collective approach to tackling climate change. Under the agreement, nations submit targets to cut climate pollution – described as Nationally Determined Contributions – every five years, enabling them to ramp up efforts over time to cut climate pollution. Together, these targets chart a global pathway to slash climate pollution and prevent global temperatures from exceeding agreed limits.

Like countries world-wide, Australia is expected to submit our 2035 climate target this year. The current target, to reduce Australia’s climate pollution 43% on 2005 levels by 2030, was legislated in 2022

Australia’s 2035 climate target is an opportunity to set Australia on the right path, one which keeps our kids safer from climate change and sets our economy up for success in a fossil fuel-free world. 

What climate target should Australia commit to?

Climate Council commissioned Climate Resource to assess the global warming implications of an Australian 2035 climate target. The analysis uses the latest emissions data and shows what an Australian target means for global average temperature risk.

This new analysis shows the only Australian target that’s compatible with holding global warming below 2°C is net zero by 2035. The closer the Australian Government’s 2035 climate target gets to net zero, the less climate risk Australians face. 

The analysis also shows that a 2035 climate target to reduce pollution by 75% or more puts the world on track to heat by more than 2°C but likely less than by 2.3°C, if other countries adopt the same per capita share of the remaining global budget from 2024 onwards.

Weaker targets are aligned with even higher levels of global heating. Each fraction of a degree of global heating is associated with more catastrophic impacts to communities and ecosystems. A 2035 target to reduce pollution by 65% is aligned with below 2.4°C of global heating.

At the end of the day, the stronger the climate target, the safer Australians are from climate risks. On the other hand, the weaker the target, the more vulnerable we become.

What targets are possible for Australia to achieve over the next decade?

Several significant Australian-based research projects have demonstrated that deep cuts to climate pollution in the next 10 years are possible. 

• The CSIRO’s pathway to reduce emissions by 75% on 2005 levels by 2035 and reach net zero by 2040. Under this scenario, average real GDP growth from 2020 to 2050 would only be 0.03 percentage points lower than the net zero by 2050 scenario, a cost significantly less than the economic, social and health benefits of cutting emissions.
• ClimateWorks Centre’s decarbonisation modelling, which shows how Australia can reduce emissions by 85% by 2035, demonstrates that a stronger 2035 target is achievable. 
• Climate Council’s Seize the Decade report shows that, by going all-in on proven clean technology that’s already available, Australia could reach a 75% climate pollution cut this decade. This suggests much more is possible by 2035, with further time available for technology development, the rollout of solutions like batteries, electric vehicles and electrification, and the wider availability of zero-emissions fuels like green hydrogen and sustainable aviation fuels.

What changes would Australia need to make to deliver a strong 2035 climate target?

Achieving stronger climate targets will require more action across our economy to double down on what is already working, and build the clean industries of the future. Australian households and businesses will need to change the way they power themselves, make things, and get around. Australian governments will face changes to revenue sources as coal and gas exports decline, and new industries emerge. 

We’re already making progress in Australia, with existing policies and efforts projected to cut climate pollution by almost 43% on 2005 levels by 2030 – a 13 percentage point improvement from 2021 projections. Already, a 51% climate pollution cut is projected by 2035 just by implementing current policies.

To protect Australians from the consequences of the climate crisis, Australia can also consider tackling its global carbon footprint by:

• Developing clean industries that contribute to global pollution reduction. For example, by developing green metals, cathode and battery manufacturing, sustainable shipping and aviation fuels;
• Supporting developing countries in their transition through climate finance or other mechanisms; and 
• Reducing our exported climate pollution, particularly by not approving new fossil fuel projects.

In recent years, climate solutions have been delivered at a speed and scale that has surpassed expectations. The last decade has seen incredible progress, with the cost of many climate solutions reducing dramatically. The key lesson here is our ambitions should not be constrained by what we currently consider to be the limit of our clean energy potential. Just as progress in renewable electricity outstripped all expectations over the last decade, progress in industrial decarbonisation and harder-to-abate sectors can far exceed our current projections over the next. 

By aiming high we give ourselves the best opportunity at fulfilling our true potential. The climate crisis demands that we do everything we can, everywhere we can, as fast as we can.

Climate consequences if the world fails to set strong targets

As our climate has warmed, Australia has been hit hard. Where long-term global warming is currently about 1.3°C above pre-industrial levels, Australia has warmed by an average of around 1.51°C since national records began in 1910.

This increase in temperature is fuelling more frequent and intense extreme weather events, including extreme heat, heavy rainfall, coastal inundation, dangerous bushfire weather and drought. Many communities have now experienced back-to-back disasters that would have previously been considered a 1-in-50 or 1-in-100 year weather event. 

Climate-driven extreme weather events in Australia are already becoming more frequent and intense, with devastating impacts. 

The future scale and severity of the climate crisis will depend on how quickly and deeply we slash global climate pollution. Each fraction of a degree of global heating is associated with more catastrophic impacts to communities and ecosystems.

For more information see our Stronger Target, Safer Future: Why Australia’s 2035 Climate Target Matters report.

Climate Council has launched a petition calling on the Australian Government to set the strongest possible 2035 climate target – and take urgent action to meet it!

The post Why Australia needs to set a strong climate target this year appeared first on Climate Council.

What began as a group of 27 Pacific Island law students is now a turning point that strengthens a struggling multilateral system for climate action. The Vanuatu government was also a driving force behind this first ever legal opinion on climate change. With these proceedings, we are seeing a familiar storyline play out in the international arena, one that the Pacific is all too familiar with – that if we want to survive the climate crisis, it is up to us to chart the path of least destruction. Whether or not the world follows our lead has differed over history.

Ten years ago, those of us present in Paris cried tears of resolve and pride when Republic of the Marshall Islands Foreign Minister, Tony De Brum, masterfully led the High Ambition Coalition to negotiate and secure what we now know as the Paris Agreement. The world then followed suit with their national emissions targets, some worthy of the phrase “climate action”, and some not. In 2022, Tuvalu became the first country to call for a Fossil Fuel Non Proliferation Treaty, with 135 cities and subnational governments today backing that same call. Over the years, Pacific Island states have attempted to set high bars for climate ambition and prayed that those with the power to impact global emissions saw our survival as worth fighting for.

Today, this call-and-response is again at play for the Pacific. When we became aware of Australia’s intentions to host COP31 as an Australia-Pacific COP, we saw the opportunity to chart a path encouraging Australia’s climate leadership. But it has been no easy feat. When the Australian government signalled its addiction to gas expansion in Canberra last May, a group of Pacific Islanders took to parliament lawns calling for a renewable energy transition instead – both domestically and within the Pacific region. Climate Minister Chris Bowen’s recent visit to the Pacific indicated that Australia’s direction, at least in terms of a Pacific energy transition, could be looking positive. On this four-nation tour, Australia committed $16.4 million to upgrade Palau’s electricity network and shift to renewable energy. This includes the 15MW Palau Solar Farm, one of the Pacific’s largest solar power projects. However, President Surangel Whipps Jr of Palau has made it clear that a “Pacific COP” would require more than renewable energy investments. It would call on Australia to address its gas addiction and position as one of the top-three fossil fuel exporters in the world.

The issue of Australia’s coal and gas exports is the stain on Australia’s potential climate legacy. Even as Australia courts Pacific leaders in their bid for COP31, Environment Minister Murray Watt recently approved the extension of the Woodside’s North West Shelf gas plant, one of the world’s biggest fossil gas projects, prolonging its life from 2030 to 2070. The extension is expected to be responsible for about 87.9m tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent every year in the decades ahead. Acts of hypocrisy like this make it increasingly difficult to trust Australia as a partner to Pacific peoples, as continued fossil fuel exports exacerbate climate disasters across our islands.

So as we skate dangerously close to the 1.5 degree target set in Paris, we cannot allow the next five years to be where we lose our fight against the climate crisis. Australia’s current emissions reduction target of 43% by 2030 is woefully short of what’s required to keep global heating below 1.5 degrees, and predictions of its revised emissions target due this year are still unclear. As a potential COP host within this critical timeframe, Australia has the opportunity and responsibility to up its climate game significantly – but only by listening to Pacific co-hosts and following our lead.

We have dreams and pathways for a Pacific free from fossil fuels and climate catastrophe, and we are actively trying to secure the resources and relationships to make that a reality. We have employed everything at our disposal to realise this dream, from diplomacy to litigation to grassroots activism. It is clear that both history and international law are on our side. What remains to be seen is how Australia responds to the role they’ve been cast in the story of our survival.

Author: Fenton Lutunatabua, 350.org Deputy Head of Regions and founder of the Pacific Climate Warriors.

Photo: ABC News

The post An international court ruling, proof that the world can follow the Pacific’s lead on climate action appeared first on Climate Council.

Climate Council Preliminary Analysis, “Obligations of the States in Respect of Climate Council”.

The advice shows:

1. Countries have very strong obligations under international law to cut climate pollution and prevent significant harm to the global climate that sustains human life. 

The Court refers both to climate treaties and other bodies of international law.

2. Australia is obligated to set strong, science aligned climate targets.

The Court makes clear that it “considers the 1.5°C threshold to be the parties’ agreed primary temperature goal for limiting the global average temperature increase under the Paris Agreement.” It states that countries “Nationally Determined Contribution” (NDC),  which includes the 2035 climate target, must be in line with the Paris Agreement goal to limit global temperature increase to 1.5°C. The advice further emphasises that each country must “do its utmost to ensure that the NDCs it puts forward represent its highest possible ambition in order to realize the objectives of the [Paris] Agreement.” 

Yesterday, the Climate Council released the latest scientific data showing that this goal is almost out of reach for Australia due to a decade of delayed action (2013-2022). That research shows net zero by 2035 is the only climate target available to Australia with a strong chance of contributing to holding global warming below 2°C.  However, the Court makes clear that to be aligned with Paris obligations a country’s actions should be consistent with holding warming to 1.5°C. Therefore Australia may be obligated to contribute to global efforts to slash climate pollution as well as take steps at home – for instance building new industries (e.g. green iron) and preventing new fossil fuel projects.

The Federal Government has accelerated climate action in the last three years, including reaching 43% renewable power in Australia’s main grid. The action must now be strengthened to meet our international obligations.

The Australian Government is expected to make its decision on Australia’s 2035 climate target in the coming months. The Court’s advice makes clear that a target should be as strong as possible and accompanied by plans and policies to implement that target. It can further be argued that, to comply with international law, this judgement requires Australia to both set a strong national target and take action on exported emissions to help hold global heating to 1.5°C.

3. On-going production, consumption and granting of licenses and subsidies for fossil fuels could constitute wrongful acts under international law. Wrongful acts may trigger obligations to compensate other countries suffering from climate harm. 

The Court states that: “What constitutes a wrongful act is not the emissions in and of themselves, but actions or omissions causing significant harm to the climate system in breach of a state’s international obligations.”

The Federal Government has argued that Australia is not responsible for the emissions from Australia’s vast exports of coal and gas. The Court disagrees. Australia is one of the largest exporters of fossil fuels, therefore there is a strong case that ongoing support and expansion of Australia’s export industry constitutes “significant harm to the climate system”.

The Court finds that individual countries can still be found responsible, even if it is hard to identify a specific share of harm they have caused. The Court notes that it is “scientifically possible to determine each State’s total contribution to global emissions, taking into account both historical and current emissions.” 

Given Australia has consistently been one of the highest per capita polluters in the world and one of the world’s most prolific fossil fuel exporters, it can also be argued that Australia’s relative share of harm is significant. This will also likely be argued in respect to other countries that are major polluters and fossil fuel exporters.

The Court states that wrongful acts – which could include breaching treaty obligations or failing to regulate climate pollution – under international law could trigger repatriation obligations, including obligations to compensate other countries harmed by climate disasters. 

The Court also finds an obligation for countries to limit climate pollution from private actors in its jurisdiction. This appears to be a broad definition that would apply to fossil fuels production for international or domestic use.

The Court’s advice gives the Australian government reason to consider the totality of Australia’s contribution to climate harm, including our exported climate pollution. In particular, the Court’s decision is pertinent to the Federal Government’s review of Australia’s national environment laws. Currently, when the Federal Environment Minister considers whether to approve new fossil fuel projects there is no provision in the act to consider the climate pollution from that project. Given the Court’s very strong findings, it will be difficult for the Australian government to argue that it has the “highest possible ambition in order to realize the objectives of the [Paris] Agreement”, if it does not reform the environment laws and/or take other substantive measures to prevent the expansion of Australia’s fossil fuel industry.

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